4
votes
1answer
138 views

Relating Quantitative Easing to the rally in the SPX

The Fed's balance sheet has been expanding over the last few month due to QE3. When the Fed goes out to buy treasuries or MBS, it's taking those securities out of the market and exchanging them with ...
0
votes
2answers
250 views

Matlab; How to specify Coupon frequency for Interest Rate Swap

I'm trying to price an interest rate swap and would like to change the default coupon payment frequency from 1 a year to 2 or 4 a year. I'm using ...
3
votes
2answers
554 views

Statistical models for exchange rates?

What stochastics processes (if any) are used to model currencies exchange rates and how good are such models ? References on subj. are also highly welcome.
5
votes
3answers
1k views

Papers about risk managment in algorithmic trading systems?

I am currently doing my research for my master thesis, which will clearly focus on the question of risk managment in algorithmic trading systems. I have done research about this topic and found some ...
1
vote
1answer
394 views

LIBOR Rates available in CSV, XML etc

Is there a website that offers current LIBOR rates for all tenors for free in machine readable formats?
3
votes
1answer
135 views

Different Exercise Style Options on Same Underlying

Some equities on European markets have options traded in two different exercise styles: American and European. Examples: ABB and ABB (european) on Eurex Banco Santander on MEFF Consider ...
2
votes
1answer
203 views

Which prices to use to compute realized volatility?

For computation of realized volatility, especially range based volatility, deal prices are commonly used. If Level I data available should the deals data still be used or another measures of spot ...
3
votes
4answers
1k views

IB TWS & API, without IB account?

I'll be starting a MFE grad program in Fall, and some of the classes have a lab that use the IB TWS & API. I'd like to play around with it for fun this summer. Unfortunately, I don't have an IB ...
0
votes
1answer
54 views
3
votes
1answer
136 views

Are there any good benchmarks for performance of vanilla option pricing code?

I've seen parsec (http://parsec.cs.princeton.edu/index.htm), which has a PDE pricing component, but the distribution is enormous and I haven't bothered to try to download it for review. I'm ...
0
votes
1answer
364 views

How to adjust local currency returns to US$/EUR return?

Iam doing research on return characteristics. As of today the scope of the research has changed from a local investor point of view to an international investor point of view. This basically means ...
11
votes
1answer
775 views

So many volatility models. Any comparisons of them?

Are there any papers that make an explicit contrast/comparison of the following (or other) vol models in terms of the suitability for addressing some empirical problem? Wavelet multiresolution ...
3
votes
0answers
60 views

Discount of Asian vs European vols

I understand the discount for Asian vs. European vol depends on time to expiry and length of averaging period. This makes sense intuitively; a short averaging period far away blurs into a single ...
9
votes
2answers
526 views

VaR for portfolio of funds

Let's assume we need to calculate a 1-day VaR for a portfolio of funds. Funds are traded, they can be bought and sold every day. We know exactly what the assets in each fund are. What is the right way ...
3
votes
1answer
497 views

Replicating strategy in the Black-Scholes model

I have a two-asset Black-Scholes model for a financial market: $dB_t=B_t r dt$ $dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma dW_t)$ I introduce a European claim $\xi=max(K,S_T)$ with maturity $T$, for some fixed $K$. I ...
3
votes
0answers
93 views

Optimal mortgage rate strategy

When buying a mortgage, you can choose to "lock in" a rate at any point within 60 days of your closing date. Once locked in, you can't revert. This makes it a secretary problem - in the traditional ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Is Unexpected Loss ever used in Basel II?

In Basel II, EL is useful. It's calculated as $$EL = PD \cdot EAD \cdot LGD $$ in advance IRB (internal rate-based approach), Correlation $$R = 0.12 \frac{1 – e^{-50 \cdot PD}}{1 – e^{-50}} + 0.24 ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

When the Inverse Correlation between the SPX and VIX breaks down

As we all know the S&P and its implied vol, the VIX, generally move in opposite direction. To a large extent, the correlations makes sense. IV is one of the main drivers of the price of options, ...
-1
votes
2answers
178 views

What's the first time-integral of price called?

In general I'm wondering about the names of time-derivatives of price. E.g. in physics the first few time-derivatives of position are: f(x) = displacement f'(x) = velocity f''(x) = acceleration ...
0
votes
2answers
156 views

Quality of GAINDATA timestamps

Does anyone have a view on the quality of the timestamping of GAINCAPITAL's free historical data. There is non-FX data there and I wonder if the timestamps are in sync?
3
votes
1answer
173 views

Desired portfolio volume

I am working on a toy model, in part of which an investor has to decide (based on some utility theory) how much money to invest in a given portfolio. For simplicity, assume that the portfolio is ...
3
votes
1answer
504 views

R Outputs from Johansen test. Linear combination still not stationary?

I am trying to see if house price is cointegrated with interest rate, per capita income and rental vacancy rate and got the following output from ca.jo in R: ...
0
votes
0answers
118 views

Exact value of mean reversion rate knowing terminal value of the process

Let you have the following mean reverting process: $\text{d}x_{t}=a(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t$, where the diffusion term is absent, that is this process is not stochastic. Let you know the value of ...
3
votes
0answers
136 views

Is it random walk?

I would like to ask a question about random walk. Campbell, Lo & Mackinlay defined the random walk, in the following way (RW3): $$ cov[f(r_{t}),g(r_{t+k})]=0,\qquad k\neq0 $$ for all $f(\cdot)$ ...
1
vote
1answer
157 views

Add transaction costs to prediction

An algorithm predicts price movement by some certainty and it invests proportional to the confidence level. Predictions range from -1 to +1, -1 meaning sell for a value of ...
1
vote
1answer
190 views

What are the differences between CFD and SSF?

What are the intricate differences between SSF and CFD? The similarities are that both take into account interest and settled daily thus looks more or less the same pima facie.
10
votes
4answers
310 views

How to prove that markets are incomplete under the Stochastic Volatility model?

Has anyone ever formally proved that Markets are incomplete under the stochastic volatility model? I know that if there are more random sources than traded assets, then the market is incomplete but ...
1
vote
0answers
148 views

Market Exposure and Hedging

Normally the Market exposure associated with your stock/portfolio is your delta for that stock/ portfolio. Basic idea of hedging involved here is buying/selling respective futures depending upon ...
3
votes
0answers
88 views

Overnight Index Swaps

Just a very quick general question regarding the OIS market. Is it common place on termsheets to state a PV Notional and additionally a FV notional, if so what is the purpose of this and does market ...
5
votes
1answer
512 views

Profiting from price discrepancies between stock exchanges

Here is an interesting video by Nanex: http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=rB5jJuMP84E Perhaps some of you have already seen something similar. It is an animation of the order routing. It shows 1/2 ...
0
votes
1answer
177 views

Grokking Stochastic Oscillator for Stocks

In software, I'm trying to implement the Stochastic Oscillator (see here), and I'd like to figure out a few things. Let's say I use standard inputs 14, 3 and 3. If my 14 is for intraday ticks, what ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

How to simulate a Geometric Binomial Process with state/tie dependent increments?

I want to simulate a geometric binomial process with state/time dependent increments. So the model is given by \begin{align}R_t=\frac{X_t}{X_{t-1}}\end{align} \begin{align}P(R_t=u)=p(X_{t-1},t) ...
4
votes
1answer
196 views

Covariance of brownian motion and its time average

It's a question pertaining to the correlation of a log asset process (following BM) and its time average, to put it into form, if $$X(t)=\mu t+\sigma W(t)$$ then $$ ...
5
votes
1answer
334 views

Distribution of profit/loss for retail traders in FX

I've heard that 90% of retail investors in FX lose money. I want to analyze this in more detail. Question: Is there some literature that describes the statistics of profit/loss for retail traders in ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

mean variance minimizer

I need to use the lagragian multiplier to find the minimal martingale measure from the set of equivalent martingale measures. i formed the lagragian as L = $L(u(t,S(t)),\lambda) = ...
2
votes
3answers
233 views

Quadratic variation question

Here I have this question (i) state Ito's formula (ii) hence or otherwise show that $\int^t_0B_s dB_s = \dfrac{1}{2}B^2_t -\dfrac{1}{2} t$ (iii) define the quadratic variation $Q(t)$ of Brownian ...
4
votes
1answer
137 views

pricing of heat rate-linked derivative

It's a simplified model. Suppose $U_t$ is a random variables subject to Lognormal($x_1$, $z_1^2$)distribution. $V_t$ is a random variables subject to Lognormal($x_2$, $z_2^2$)distribution. Suppose ...
14
votes
2answers
741 views

Parameter estimation of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and CIR processes

I would like to estimate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process' parameters via Kalman filter. My process is the following one: $\text{d}x_{t}=\alpha(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t+\sigma\text{d}W_{t}$ I'm interested ...
2
votes
2answers
593 views

RQuantLib, Hoadley and Bloomberg YAS: fixed rate bond pricing differences?

I'm trying to price a fixed rate bond one year from now on. The bond is the PEUGOT 7 ⅜ 03/06/18, whose ISIN code is FR0011439975. I'm using such a specific example because in this way everyone can ...
3
votes
1answer
280 views

knowing the order of GARCH model

I want to ask if there is a situation to know the order of GARCH(p, q) from the result. For example, in the case of AR(p), one can know the value of p by plotting pacf(). In case of MA(q), one can ...
2
votes
2answers
851 views

backtesting options strategies in R

I would like to backtest an options strategy in R. I require the ability to delta hedge and rebalance to options in the portfolio at different frequencies (daily, monthly,etc.) What packages are the ...
2
votes
1answer
345 views

How does the CME set margin requirements on commodity Futures

I am trying to model margin requirements on various commodity futures, however it doesn't seem that the CME has released the formula they use to set these performance bonds. I am sure that they use ...
1
vote
1answer
211 views

When calculating CIP between EU and US, which interest rates data to use?

I am wondering which data to use to test the Covered Interest Rate Parity between Europe and the United States. Recap that for the CIP to hold, it should mean that F/S = (1+r)/(1+r*) where F = the ...
1
vote
1answer
247 views

Proxy for Expected Economic Growth

Can anyone help me understand how expected economic growth is usually measured? I've read several papers that talk about using breakeven inflation as a proxy for expected inflation, and then the ...
6
votes
1answer
2k views

Forecasting using rugarch package

I want to do one step ahead in-sample forecasts. My data can be found here. This is just a data frame with the date as the rownames. I specify my model and do the fit and show the plots with ...
7
votes
4answers
1k views

Best way to store hourly/daily options data for research purposes

There are quite a few discussions here about storage, but I can't find quite what I'm looking for. I'm in need to design a database to store (mostly) option data (strikes, premiums bid / ask, etc.). ...
4
votes
2answers
590 views

How to normalize technical indicators for machine learning?

I'm using around 130 technical indicators for 100 different companies. Each company's stock price moves in a different range, see FTSE 100. In addition, each technical indicator moves in a different ...
3
votes
1answer
491 views

Risk-free rate for ex-post evaluation of investment strategy

When evaluating the strategy ex-post using e.g. Sharpe ratio, what should one use as the risk-free rate? Let's suppose I am using a 1Y sample of weekly returns, sampled between 2012-01-01 and ...
1
vote
2answers
461 views

Relationship between European, American options volatility

Suppose, if the price of a European option (say a put) can be shown to be monotone in volatility (say for any maturity), does it follow that American options has to be monotone in volatility? ...
4
votes
0answers
273 views

Rate Distortion Minimization in a Python Clustering Algorithm

I'm attempting to solve for $\hat{k}$ clusters, such that the rate distortion is minimized, as described here, however, the answers that I am getting from my algorithm are not following the "Jump" ...

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