0
votes
1answer
43 views

Pricing an american style option on a bond future

what is the good way to pricing american option on bond future? From bonk fixed income securities 3rd by Tuckman, I understand how to pricing European option on bond future, but I still have no clue ...
3
votes
4answers
131 views

Why use implied volatility

First I'll describe the way I understood things so far from the literature, feel free to correct me here, and then I formulate some questions. I'd search through QSE, but haven't found so far similar ...
4
votes
1answer
508 views

Back office processing for FX trades

Can someone provide (or point me to) a summary of back office processing nuances specific to FX trading? For example, I know that there are several FX-specific risks that must be managed. They include ...
0
votes
0answers
28 views

What are some different methods for calculating hedge ratios for multiple leg spreads?

I am looking for many different ways of doing this, and I want to compare the results I get among the different choices. I am going to be using close-to-close change data. Thanks.
2
votes
0answers
48 views

Weighted average implied optionlet/swaptions volatility

Let an implied volatility curve/surface is made up by optionlets or swaptions Black's implied volatility. If you wanted to price, say, a FRN with cap and/or floor, a CMS et cetera you would input the ...
0
votes
1answer
44 views

Baye's rule for conditional expectations (Proof review)

The Baye's rule for conditional expectations states $$ E^Q[X|\mathcal{F}]E^P[f|\mathcal{F}]=E^P[Xf|\mathcal{F}] $$ With $f=dQ/dP$ - thus being the Radon-Nikodyn derivative and $X$ being ...
1
vote
1answer
76 views

what is the vol in the BS formula?

I need to compute the delta of an option for which I know a) the time to maturity, b) the price of the option, c) the price of the underlying asset. what is the formula to get this delta It seems ...
1
vote
1answer
59 views

How can I use PCA to determine spread ratios for multiple legs?

I would like to generalize Paul Teetor's A Better Hedge Ratio, which uses prcomp() to determine a ratio between two legs. I am hoping to extend this to multiple legs, but am having trouble finding ...
5
votes
1answer
68 views

Overview of robust/regularized portfolio selection

I am looking for either a review paper or individual papers on portfolio selection using robust statistics or regularization (e.g. LASSO, Ridge, etc.) I.e. a review on methods along the lines of: M ...
4
votes
0answers
46 views

FTAP a-la Harrison, Kreps and Pliska

I was reading the papers co-authored by Harrison, Kreps and Pliska, that initiated the formal research on the connection between pricing, martingale measures, arbitrage and completeness. I have some ...
2
votes
1answer
116 views

Value at Risk from Delta of a single asset portfolio

I am trying to figure out the following, for me unfamiliar type of question: Given is a single asset portfolio: the Delta of the portfolio is 15, the value of the asset is 10 and the daily volatility ...
4
votes
1answer
120 views

Use of Girsanov's theorem in bond pricing

Assume that we want to calculate the time $t=0$ price of a bond: $B(0,T) = E_P[\exp(-\int_0^T r_s ds)]$, where $r$ is the interest rate following the SDE $dr_t=k(\theta-r_t)dt+\sigma ...
7
votes
2answers
373 views

What are the merits of pseudo random numbers over quasi random numbers in monte-carlo simulation?

I understand that quasi-random numbers have much better convergence, but are there any reasons for me to use pseudo-random numbers instead?
2
votes
2answers
171 views

Smoothing Term Curve

Assume that we have current month term curve and the curves from the two previous months. The current curve may be shifted from the average of the previous two curve by some value (a parallel shift). ...
15
votes
6answers
3k views

What tools exist for order book analysis and visualization?

What tools exist for order book analysis and visualization? In particular, if one wanted to examine a limit order book and understand how it changes throughout the day where would you turn for ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

How to calculate tail exposure on a multi-product position

Let's say I have a position vector across five products: Positions <- c(40,-45,20,-32,17) How can I determine the "tail" exposure if my PCA model gives me the following loadings for the first ...
2
votes
1answer
75 views

SABR model inconsistent with Black Swaption Pricing

I am confused on the following: When we price swaption, the market convention is to use Black's Model which assumes forward swap rate is following Black's model under the Q(t) measure. When we tries ...
4
votes
1answer
111 views

Mean-variance portfolio & quadratic programming

I am somewhat confused when it comes to modern portfolio theory, mean-variance portfolio optimization and its quadratic programming formulation. Issue 1: Formulation of mean-variance portfolio ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Incorporating a stochastic correlation structure into a multi-factor model

I am considering extending a multi-factor fixed income stochastic model (e.g. LIBOR-Market) to use stochastic correlation matrices instead of determinstic ones. For pricing instruments with short ...
2
votes
3answers
191 views

Simulating the short rate in the Hull-White model

What is the best way to simulate the short rate $r(t)$ in a simple one factor Hull White process? Suppose I have $$ dr(t) = (\theta(t)-\alpha r(t))dt+\sigma dW_t $$ where $\theta(t)$ is calibrated ...
2
votes
2answers
124 views

Options with a stochastic strike

Do options where the strike itself is a stochastic process exist? If they do - what are the motivations for such a product and where is it used ? Example: Call-Option with stochastic strike: ...
2
votes
1answer
56 views

Numéraire — couldn't understand the wiki explanation

I'm trying to understand Numéraire concept so am reading the wiki page: I couldn't understand the last formula's 2nd equation: $$ ...
3
votes
0answers
69 views

How to hedge a derivative that pays the reciprocal of the stock price?

1) Suppose S is the stock price, how to hedge a derivative that pays $1/S_t$ at time $t$? 2) Suppose there will be a dividend of amount $d$ between $t$ and $T$, how to hedge a derivative that pays ...
2
votes
3answers
71 views

Does an implied volatility always exist for a binary option?

I'm trying to compute the implied volatility of a binary option but I cannot get some of the strikes to reach a convergent solution using either a Monte Carlo pricing model or an analytical Black ...
3
votes
1answer
84 views

Understanding the derivation of a ML-estimator

I'm trying to understand the derivation of a ML-estimator and more specifically the rewriting of the covariance matrix Sigma. In this rewriting a lemma is used to show that $$ (1) \hspace{1.4 ...
4
votes
1answer
46 views

backward Kolmogorov equations - Markov properties

I'm a physicist who's research has lead him into the theory of stochastic differential equations. If this question is not appropriate for this forum, please feel free to delete it. So I've been ...
0
votes
0answers
46 views

Log returns vs. prices

I am currently working on a stat arb that is giving me a little bit of trouble. I'm under the impression that most stat arbs are going to use prices such that we can choose a ratio N such that: Price ...
4
votes
2answers
232 views

Obtaining a consistent covariance matrix for stochastic volatility processes

What is the condition for underlying stochastic volatility processes to give a consistent covariance matrix? I read in Hull that in order to have a consistent covariance matrix, volatility parameters ...
5
votes
1answer
239 views

Practical Usage of Wavelets with Real Time Data

There are a lot of papers out there which make attempts to forecast or discuss the benefits of wavelets for frequency decomposition. Oddly, very few discuss the huge boundary effects that are present ...
5
votes
1answer
475 views

Gamma vs. Volatility Risk

Original Question: What is the link between Gamma and the Volatility Risk? It leads me to ask: - What is the Volatility Risk definition and what are the good practices to measure it? Thinking about ...
3
votes
0answers
121 views

On the interface between Quant finance and actuarial-science/insurance-math

Actuaries (at least in Europe) are frequently severily lacking in quant finance topics. At best they are familiar with B&S model. People going into quant finane or striving to become a quant on ...
1
vote
0answers
80 views

Given future price probability distribution, what is a strategy that maximizes return?

Say I know the price probability distribution, e.g., lognormal(p,s), of a stock X at a future time ...
1
vote
1answer
66 views

Where does this copula come from?

In a paper I encountered the following notation $$P(Z\leq z,u\leq Y\leq v)=C(F_{Z}(z),F_{Y}(v)-F_{Y}(u))$$ However I don't see why this holds in relation to uniform random variables. Usually ...
0
votes
2answers
56 views

Are PX_BID and PX_ASK on Bloomberg closing bid/ask? or are they daily averaged?

Bloomberg provides PX_BID and PX_ASK on a daily basis, but it's not clear exactly where these numbers come from. Are they closing bid and ask prices, or are they averaged over the entire day? For ...
0
votes
1answer
63 views

Why is that a risk averse consumer buys the optimum insurance when there is actuarially fair insurance?

I think I understand the fact that when marginal utilities of the same function are equal (a consequence of the actuarially fair insurance), the independent variables in it must be equal -- right? But ...
2
votes
2answers
81 views

What impact does arbitrage have on realised volatility estimates?

Doing some research modeling/estimating volatility in the bitcoin market. There is quite a bit of scope for arbitrage within crypto-currency markets. Wonder if this has any impact on my volatility ...
23
votes
5answers
2k views

Random matrix theory (RMT) in finance

The new kid on the block in finance seems to be random matrix theory. Although RMT as a theory is not so new (about 50 years) and was first used in quantum mechanics it being used in finance is a ...
5
votes
1answer
709 views

Correct way to calculate bond's Yield-to-Horizon

I'm creating some .Net libraries for bond pricing and verifying its correctness with a bond pricing excel spreadsheet (Bond Pricing and Yield from Chrisholm Roth) but I believe it calculates the Yield ...
18
votes
3answers
4k views

What types of neural networks are most appropriate for trading?

What types of neural networks are most appropriate for forecasting returns? Can neural networks be the basis for a high-frequency trading strategy? Types of neural networks include: Support Vector ...
18
votes
4answers
5k views

What is the best way to “fix” a covariance matrix that is not positive semi-definite?

I have a sample covariance matrix of S&P 500 security returns where the smallest k-th eigenvalues are negative and quite small (reflecting noise and some high correlations in the matrix). I am ...
12
votes
2answers
911 views

Cleansing covariance matrices via Random matrix theory

I am exploring de-noising and cleansing of covariance matrices via Random Matrix Theory. RMT is a competitor to shrinkage methods of covariance estimation. There are various methods expressed usually ...
3
votes
1answer
100 views

Cross validation of a garch model

Suppose I divide a time series into 10 sequential time windows, where each window contains 1000 data points. I want to do test 5 different garch models using cross validation. So for each model, I ...
0
votes
1answer
90 views

List of financial derivatives Ito's Lemma does not apply

According to Ito's Lemma there is no restriction on the continuity of the stochastic process. The restrictions are on the continuity of the pay-off so that second derivatives with respect to ...
3
votes
5answers
344 views

Is there a name for, or any research on, a system where you try to predict future price by finding a similar price history in the past?

Allow me to explain. You look back from some period to the present. Say a week ago to now, using a per-minute view. You then crawl through your database of past price data, and you try to find a ...
1
vote
0answers
66 views

Credit Spread, Transition Matrix

Consider a credit rating system consisting of three credit states, A, B and D (default) with the following annual credit transition probability: T = [0.7 0.2 0.1;0.2 0.5 0.3; 0 0 1]. For a company ...
1
vote
3answers
60 views

How often do banks update forward points?

My understanding is that forward rates are calculated by comparing interbank interest rates of the 2 currencies for a currency pair, with the points being the difference between spot and the forward ...
7
votes
3answers
214 views

How to choose a risk-neutral measure when the market is incomplete?

I am more of a probabilist than a financial mathematician. I am currently working on the features of American put options under a particular stochastic volatility model. Like most stochastic ...
3
votes
1answer
87 views

Does risk-neutral measure have anything to deal with risk-neutrality in utility theory?

Or simply: why do we call equivalent martingale measures as risk-neutral measures? In the utility or game theory, when we consider a person's preferences to certain outcomes, we often deal with the ...
1
vote
2answers
70 views

Controlling portfolio concentration

I'm working with a heterogenous basket of instruments (in volatility terms). Risk parity allocation seems to be useful for the portfolio( * 1/Volatility). However, there are times when the ...
1
vote
1answer
56 views

Backtesting Period

Views on timeframes for backtesting vary considerably. Curious on what timeframe/trade size leads to a statistically significant result. For example, what backtest period is reasonable for a system ...

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