# All Questions

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### Why is Value at Risk non-negative?

When reading the book of Financial Risk Forecasting, I saw the following example. I am not very clear about two points marked with yellow and green respectively. ...
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### forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate

Question about forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate.Some definitions $P(a,b)$ a zero coupond price at time $a$ and maturity $b$ $L(a,b)$ simply compounded spot interest rate set at ...
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### What Is A Good Success Rate Using Machine Learning For A Beginner?

I know this question will be quickly destroyed and my account summarily banned, but I just have to ask: For a trader using machine-learning algorithms (SVMs, ANNs, GAs, Decision Trees) for ...
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### OIS discounting pre and post crises

I have a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based rv model. I want to know if I can use pre and post-crises curves interchangeably in my calibration and out of sample testing. I.e. those without OIS ...
83 views

### Bloomberg Zero Coupon Rates

As some of your may know from my other posts, I am working on a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based relative value trading model. On simulated data (which satisfies all the assumptions) of the DNS it ...
66 views

### Discount rate, convertible debt and the effect of time

The way I understand it is that there are three main parameters to a convertible debt investment. An investment amount A discount rate A trigger event Now under most of the examples I have seen, ...
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### questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why ...
33 views

### Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
86 views

### Implied Probability of Default from Bond Prices

I am trying to build out a probability of default model for a bond. Given the current price of a bond and the current risk free rate, I am trying to calculate the probability of default. So assume a ...
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### Replicating the short part of a long-short trade using inverse ETFs

I devised a pair trading strategy going long XXX and short B*YYY. B is the quantity of shares of YYY I need to short. The problem is I can’t go short on YYY, but there is an inverse ETF for YYY ...
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### Weighting several returns over different time frames

I have a set of annualized returns over 4 time periods: 10yr, 5yr, 3yr and 1yr. Is there a way to weight each return to have a "more representative" return?
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### Arbitrage Strategy Proof in Bjork

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition Proposition 2.9 Suppose that a claim X is reachable with replicating portfolio h. Then any price at t=0 of ...
650 views

### cointegration applied to Portfolio Construction & Risk management

There are all sorts of applications of cointegration to generating alpha on mean-reverting timeseries: comparing spot vs. futures, bond spreads, identifying mean-reverting residuals, etc. But there ...
55 views

### how to calculate avarage variance and avarage covariance

I would like to figure out how to calculate av.variance and av.cov. I know how to calculate portfolio variance( for large ...
40 views

### Hedging a Long Equity Swap by Shorting the Stock

Suppose that I enter an Equity Swap, such that I pay a floating rate and I receive the equity return. The payment is every one year for both the rate and the return, and the swap expires in one year. ...
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648 views

### How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
86 views

### Pricing a FixedRateBond in Quantlib: yield vs TermStructure

I am trying to price a simple U.S. treasury in QuantLib, using two methods. The first method calls FixedRatebond.dirtyPrice(...), passing in a YTM and other parameters. The second method involves ...
1k views

### How to optimally allocate capital among trading strategies?

I'm trying to find an optimal way to allocate capital among trading strategies. "Quantitative Trading" by Ernie Chan claims on page 97 that the optimal fraction of capital to allocate to a given ...
183 views

### selecting test data for neural networks

I have been working on a neural network based on certain technical indicators. As people familiar with neural networks would know after developing a hypothesis, the developer is also supposed to ...
107 views

Did value of ratio between informed and uninformed traders at market, making difference to profitability of short-term directional trading on that market? My guess is yes and better play short-term ...
85 views

### CDS Spreads and Equity Volatility

Why does CDS spreads track the implied volatility on equities? What is the fundamental relationship that would keep the two inline from deviating too far from each other? My speculation: Could it be ...
110 views

### PDF Calculation by Fourier Inversion of Characteristic Function for Affine Intensity Process in Matlab

I'm trying to use the Fourier inversion formula to plot the PDF of an Affine Stochastic Intensity Reduced Form Credit Model, given its characteristic function. The characteristic function of an ...
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What does this mean: "Front-end vols have been trading lognormally while longer tails have traded normally." I read this in a research report, in the context of ...
19 views

### How do derivatives affect capital structures?

Yesterday, I was at a lecture where the speaker said that the impact of derivatives was often to make senior debt, in effect, subordinated debt (in terms of priority, recovery rates, etc.)? How do ...
26 views

### How does US banks ensure that other country's banks aren't counterfeiting USD?

I have had this question for a long time. For example, if I wire 50M USD from China to the US, does the Chinese bank physically deliver 50M USD cash to the US bank? or is it just changing a number in ...
146 views

### robust open source Kalman filter library in C++

I would like to know if anyone has experience with a good open source kalman filter implementation in C++ that I could use. I require an implementation that supports computation of likelihood similar ...
62 views

### Diversified Risk Parity

Is there any algorithm or steps in computing the principal portfolio weights, I am bit confused into how to evaluate the maximization of diversified risk parity weights by Harald Lohre, Heiko Opfer ...
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### Is the purchase of a stock publicly accessible?

If an investor bought a stock, could another private party access that information anywhere? Does the SEC/exchange itself create a real time/ historical record of who holds what stocks, and is that ...
85 views

### High correlation will help detect spurious regression over cointegration?

I'm analyzing two financial time series with Johansen method. A high Correlation coefficient using the Pearson method will help me to detect spurious cointegration models to avoid? If this is not ...
25 views

### What does 2 Year Annualized mean compared to 1 Year Annualized

I am looking at a company's financial report and there is a table in it that lists returns over different annualized periods. It ranges from 1 year to 20 years. Would a 2 year return in this table be ...
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### Is stock price priced in the uncertainty?

Consider a one step binomial tree model for stock price. The classical setup is as below: At time $t=0$, the stock price is $S_0$. At time $t=1$, the stock has probability $p$ to jump up to price ...
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### Electricity market : how to design an optimal hedging strategy using spot and futures markets for an industrial consumer?

Here is the problem : we should adopt the point of view of an industrial company which purchases electricity as an input in its production line and which wants to achieve the following two goals : ...
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### Basis Risk for Futures/Options

I am just reading about basis risk. It is being described as risk of the price of the hedging instrument not fluctuating the same as the instrument itself. I was just wondering, if we bought a ...
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### Kalman Filtering with Linear Restrictions

A question on this topic has been asked before: Combining a linear Kalman Filter with additional linear constraints? and I checked out some of the references given: ...
299 views

### Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
464 views

### Applicability of PCA to get historical volatilities to calibrate interest rates trees

My question in short is as follows: can I take main principal component of historical covariance matrix and use it as historical volatilities when fitting a binomial tree? Here's more detailed ...
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### Which more topic should be covered in my undergraduate program? [closed]

Below is the topics covered in my undergraduate economics program. I want to know which course should I take to get a full overview of topics in finance today. Econometrics Micro, Macro Economics ...