10
votes
1answer
737 views

Applicability of PCA to get historical volatilities to calibrate interest rates trees

My question in short is as follows: can I take main principal component of historical covariance matrix and use it as historical volatilities when fitting a binomial tree? Here's more detailed ...
1
vote
1answer
29 views

Portfolio Selection formulation

I was just wondering why in http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1601412 on page 22, the constraint (48) is a strict equality for the minimum variance formulation. Whereas in a different ...
1
vote
2answers
127 views

Intuitive Reasoning for Using Risk-Neutral Measure

Although we thoroughly covered risk-neutral pricing in university I never fully understood it in the context of continuous-time processes. But first of all, lets consider a discrete time example: ...
1
vote
1answer
52 views

remove seasonality in future contracts

very new to commodities. I have raw agriculture future data, and I need to remove the seasonality (de-seasonalize) from the data, what is the general approach ? Thanks for the help!
1
vote
1answer
23 views

When would dedicated portfolios do better than 'immunized' portfolios?

We just learned about cash-matching through dedicated portfolios (using risk free bonds) in my class that concerned mathematical programming. However, in an aside one of the notes said: It should be ...
1
vote
1answer
91 views

stochastic calculus - Itô formula?

I encounter a problem in the proof below: I don't know how to proove the first line in yellow (cf below): it makes me think about the Itô formula a lot I don't undertand the deduction (ok ...
1
vote
3answers
108 views

Direct use of implied volatility

I am not sure to understand exactly the direct use of implied volatility. Let's take an example: if an instrument has a daily volatility of $\sigma$, there is a 68% probability that its value will be ...
1
vote
1answer
183 views

Market data for options

Looking for recommendations on places to get market data for options. I'm looking at NYSE and NASDAQ only. My current solution is my broker, Tradeking. I can request realtime data for 700 option ...
2
votes
1answer
120 views

Why is the volatility smile important

One thing I can't understand clearly is why there is so much focus on the volatility smile. Given my knowledge of the Black and Scholes model, this is what I get: People use the volatility smile as a ...
3
votes
3answers
131 views

References on Statistical Arbitrages

Is there any basic materials (books, papers) to read on Statistical Arbitrage? I certainly understand much of the useful information is in the industry. I just want to get some understanding on the ...
0
votes
1answer
96 views

Where can I get historical fundamental data for multiple companies in a single CSV file?

Summary I seek an explicit reference to a source that gives me a fixed URL, e.g. http://example.com/?isin=US1912161007 or ...
2
votes
1answer
75 views

stochastic calculus - brownian motion

I don't know how to prove this : let be $X_t = \int_{0}^{t}\sigma_{u}dW_{u}$ where $\sigma_{t}$ is a predictable process. If $|\sigma_{t}| = c$ a.s. how can I prove that $X_{t}=c*\beta_{t}$ ...
0
votes
2answers
37 views

Calculating units in a cross currency short trade

If I have a forex account with a broker and a balance of 100 USD, and I'd like to short EUR/JPY, how many units can I short? How is this calculated? Which currency pair do I use to translate between ...
7
votes
3answers
542 views

On the interface between Quant finance and actuarial-science/insurance-math

Actuaries (at least in Europe) are frequently severily lacking in quant finance topics. At best they are familiar with B&S model. People going into quant finane or striving to become a quant on ...
1
vote
0answers
63 views

Black Scholes Model Replicating Strategy Delta Hedged Exam Question

A share is currently priced at 640p. A writer of 100,000 units of a one year European put option with an exercise price of 630p has delta-hedged the option with a portfolio which holds cash and is ...
2
votes
3answers
110 views

How to estimate parameters of geometric brownian motion with time-varying mean?

Does anyone know how to estimate $A$, $\sigma_1$,$\sigma_2$ from the following system? $$dx = \mu_t x dt + \sigma_1 x dB_x$$ $$d\mu = A(\bar\mu - \mu) dt + \sigma_2 dB_\mu$$ Variation in $x$ could ...
2
votes
1answer
243 views

Which is the better risk sensitive measure?

Consider the two following optimization problem 1) $$ \min_{\theta} \ln E_{\theta}[ e^{X}]$$ 2) $$ \min_{\theta} E_{\theta}[ X]$$ with the constraint $$ Var_{\theta}[X] <c$$ Is it true that ...
0
votes
1answer
51 views

How to calculate cash flow for XC swap

Given 3MLibor vs 12MLibor USD basis swap the 3M Libor is exchanged at 12MLibor+1%. How to calculate the cash flow
7
votes
0answers
390 views

Alternative ways to understand time-varying comovement between two time-series?

I have been looking into ways to better understand how the dependencies/correlations/etc between two time series can vary over time. I first thought about using a Kalman/particle filter over a ...
2
votes
1answer
54 views

Pricing digital options in discrete time

I am stuck in this exercise from my textbook: Consider a one-period market model with $N+1$ assets: a bond, a stock and $N-1$ call options. The prices of the bond are $B_0=1$ and $B_1 = 1+r$, ...
1
vote
1answer
106 views

Forex P&l Attribution on Physical Forward position

Please validate my unrealized Fx P&L calculation on the commodity forward contract e.g. consider i have bought 1 MT of wheat at 300 EURO my financial currency for company is USD. I am using below ...
0
votes
0answers
33 views

Term Structure and short rates

If I have a term structure/yield curve given by: $$f(t, T) = f(0, T) + σ^2t(T − \frac{t}{2}) + σB_t $$ and want to find the short/spot rate $r_t$, is this simply: $$f(t,t) = f(0,t) + ...
1
vote
3answers
824 views

Are PX_BID and PX_ASK on Bloomberg closing bid/ask? or are they daily averaged?

Bloomberg provides PX_BID and PX_ASK on a daily basis, but it's not clear exactly where these numbers come from. Are they closing bid and ask prices, or are they averaged over the entire day? For ...
1
vote
0answers
13 views

Calculation of bond spot rates [closed]

the cash prices of six months and one year treasury bills are \$120 and \$115 respectively. A 1.5 years bond that will pay coupons of \$5 every six months currently sells for \$121. A 2 years bond ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views

Buying OTM puts and then selling stock

What is to stop someone from first buying a bunch of OTM puts and then selling short enough stock to make the puts go up high enough to make a profit? Or conversely, buying OTM calls and then buying a ...
1
vote
1answer
38 views

parameters in Heston model and their impact on volatility smile

Consider the Heston model given by the following set of stochastic differential equations: $$\frac{dS_{t}}{S_{t}}=\mu_{t}dt+\sqrt{V_{t}}dW_{t}, S_{0}>0,$$ ...
1
vote
1answer
43 views

Explain the unconditional covariance in Dynamic Conditional correlation( DCC ) GARCH model

Confused about the unconditional covariance matrix in a DCC GARCH model. Could anyone help me understand it? My understanding is that we get the unconditional covariance before based on the data sets. ...
5
votes
1answer
199 views

Black-Scholes formula with deterministic discrete dividend (Musiela approach)

For deterministic discrete dividend, there are two approach Musiela approach, works when every dividend are paid at maturity of the option. Hull approach, works when every dividend are paid ...
2
votes
1answer
184 views

Executions deep in the Limit Order Book?

I have some Level III (message level) data for equities and I have found several cases in which I register the execution of a Limit Order at a price "worse" than the best bid or ask. For example, ...
0
votes
1answer
170 views

Girsanov theorem in CMS convexity derivation

I am going through the derivation of CMS convexity from the notes of Lesniewski There is a transformation from $T_p$ forward measure to annuity measure $Q$ as $$ ...
1
vote
1answer
160 views

Cointegration Test: Residual is stationary but not random?

I am testing cointegration relationship on various pairs of stocks by this following these steps. Test for I(1) on a pair of stocks, says X and Y, using dickey-fuller test. If both time series are ...
1
vote
1answer
120 views

Set up sharpe ratio with 2 risky portfolio

You are considering an investment in the stock. In the stock market, there are two risky stocks (A and B) and a risk free claim, C (you can think of it as the t-bill). The covariances and returns of ...
4
votes
1answer
151 views

Moving window forecasting in Python

I am looking to create some code that will out-of-sample forecast the HAR-RV model. The model itself is formulated as the following, and the betas are estimated through HAC-OLS or Newey-West. ...
1
vote
2answers
387 views

How to express the Black Derman & Toy Model in a $dr=A\,dt+B\, dW$ form?

The Black Derman & Toy (BDT) model is given by $$d(\ln\,r)=\left(\theta(t)-\frac {d(\ln\sigma(t))}{dt}\ln r\right)\,dt+\sigma(t) \, dW.$$ How can one rewrite the BDT model as $dr=A\,dt+B\, dW$, ...
9
votes
1answer
213 views

Regression in liquidity risk model of Jarrow/Protter

In the paper "Liquidity Risk and Risk Measure Computation" authors describe a linear supply curve model for liquidity risks in presence of market impact, i.e. impact-affected asset price $S(t,x)$ is ...
1
vote
2answers
276 views

Is it statistically valid to ignore “irrelevant” stock prices during backtesting?

As an amateur trader, I have reasonable success with my current end-of-day trading systems. All my systems are based on at least ONE year of "in-sample" data for backtesting, followed by 6-months of ...
1
vote
1answer
26 views

How to deal with missing returns when creating value (equal) weighted returns

recently I am doing cross sectional regressions, and getting confused about missing returns. Suppose we have 100 stocks, then we want to construct a value weighted return (or equal weighted return). ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

How do I calculate the PPP adjusted exchange rate between two countries?

I have been trying to calculate the PPP-adjusted EURUSD exchange rate. I am not sure if it is the same as relative PPP, for which I have used this formula: Spot rate at time t = Current spot rate * ...
1
vote
1answer
54 views

Limits on Short selling

When back testing an algorithm that relies upon short selling certain stocks, how to limit the short selling so that the back-test results still remain reliable? What kind of controls are generally ...
7
votes
1answer
318 views

Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
0
votes
0answers
63 views

What are the main market anomalies/inefficiencies detected in quantitative finance?

I wondered about the existence of a complete list of the anomalies detected in quantitative finance. Generally, a market anomaly or inefficiency is a asset price and/or rate of return distortion on a ...
3
votes
0answers
31 views

How to price lookback american option when its payment is distributed during its life

I would like to price a floating strike american lookback with a particular feature: I don't want to charge upfront the client, rather I would like to insert a "running fee", some sort of a dividend. ...
1
vote
1answer
30 views

convention in borrowing money in a multiperiod model

I have a question concerning the idea of consumption in multi period. The following is given $$C_1=W_0-xS_1+B$$ $$C_2=xS_2-BR$$ where $W_0$ is initial wealth $x$ is the weight on an asset with ...
0
votes
1answer
53 views

Gamma derivation from the expectation

I am trying to derive Gamma from the expectation principle (differentiating under expectation sign). I understand these steps $\frac{d^2 C}{d x^2} = e^{-r\tau} \mathbb{E} [ \frac{\partial}{\partial ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Historical volatility from close prices (Haug pg 166)

I have implemented a function for calculating historical volatility using close the close method as described by Haug on page 166. When I implemented the formula given by Haug, it resulted in some ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

equality in distribution

I encounter the following problem : I have the equality in distribution: for all $\lambda >0, ((1/\lambda)*\int_{0}^{\lambda t}\sigma_{u}^{2}du,t\geq0)=(\int_{0}^{t}\sigma_{u}^{2}du,t\geq0)$ ...
8
votes
1answer
280 views

Portfolios from Sorts

Some time ago Almgren and Chriss proposed a method for portfolio optimization based on sorting criteria such as $r_1 > r_2 >... > r_N$ instead of explicit expected returns: see portfolios ...
1
vote
1answer
60 views

Delta derivation from the expectation

I'm trying to understand the following transformation leading to Delta $\frac{dC}{dx} = e^{-r\tau} \mathbb{E}[ \frac{\partial}{\partial x}\text{max}(xY-K,0)] = e^{-r\tau} \mathbb{E}[Y ...
3
votes
0answers
75 views

What are the main market efficiency measures?

I'm going to test for the effect of the change in market efficiency on the stock market portfolio, and, I want to know what are the main measures known in the academic literature in order to compare ...

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