1
vote
2answers
83 views

Why is Value at Risk non-negative?

When reading the book of Financial Risk Forecasting, I saw the following example. I am not very clear about two points marked with yellow and green respectively. ...
1
vote
1answer
36 views

forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate

Question about forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate.Some definitions $P(a,b)$ a zero coupond price at time $a$ and maturity $b$ $L(a,b)$ simply compounded spot interest rate set at ...
-1
votes
2answers
128 views

What Is A Good Success Rate Using Machine Learning For A Beginner?

I know this question will be quickly destroyed and my account summarily banned, but I just have to ask: For a trader using machine-learning algorithms (SVMs, ANNs, GAs, Decision Trees) for ...
0
votes
1answer
41 views

OIS discounting pre and post crises

I have a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based rv model. I want to know if I can use pre and post-crises curves interchangeably in my calibration and out of sample testing. I.e. those without OIS ...
0
votes
1answer
83 views

Bloomberg Zero Coupon Rates

As some of your may know from my other posts, I am working on a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based relative value trading model. On simulated data (which satisfies all the assumptions) of the DNS it ...
1
vote
1answer
66 views

Discount rate, convertible debt and the effect of time

The way I understand it is that there are three main parameters to a convertible debt investment. An investment amount A discount rate A trigger event Now under most of the examples I have seen, ...
2
votes
1answer
63 views

questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why ...
0
votes
1answer
33 views

Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
2
votes
3answers
86 views

Implied Probability of Default from Bond Prices

I am trying to build out a probability of default model for a bond. Given the current price of a bond and the current risk free rate, I am trying to calculate the probability of default. So assume a ...
2
votes
1answer
39 views

Replicating the short part of a long-short trade using inverse ETFs

I devised a pair trading strategy going long XXX and short B*YYY. B is the quantity of shares of YYY I need to short. The problem is I can’t go short on YYY, but there is an inverse ETF for YYY ...
2
votes
1answer
46 views

Weighting several returns over different time frames

I have a set of annualized returns over 4 time periods: 10yr, 5yr, 3yr and 1yr. Is there a way to weight each return to have a "more representative" return?
1
vote
1answer
62 views

Arbitrage Strategy Proof in Bjork

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition Proposition 2.9 Suppose that a claim X is reachable with replicating portfolio h. Then any price at t=0 of ...
6
votes
3answers
650 views

cointegration applied to Portfolio Construction & Risk management

There are all sorts of applications of cointegration to generating alpha on mean-reverting timeseries: comparing spot vs. futures, bond spreads, identifying mean-reverting residuals, etc. But there ...
-1
votes
1answer
55 views

how to calculate avarage variance and avarage covariance

I would like to figure out how to calculate av.variance and av.cov. I know how to calculate portfolio variance( for large ...
1
vote
1answer
40 views

Hedging a Long Equity Swap by Shorting the Stock

Suppose that I enter an Equity Swap, such that I pay a floating rate and I receive the equity return. The payment is every one year for both the rate and the return, and the swap expires in one year. ...
2
votes
0answers
39 views

Simple Forward Interest Rate Proof

Just trying to check my logic here: Let $Z(t,T)$ be a Zero-Coupon Bond with maturity $T$ bought at time $t$, $S_m$ be the spot interest rate for time $m$ and $S_n$ for time $n$ respectively, where $n ...
12
votes
10answers
5k views

Is “eoddata” a good data source?

Not sure if this is a relevant question for site, but I am looking to move to www.eoddata.com as my data source. If anyone has used it, can you tell me how the data quality is ? I am currently ...
2
votes
0answers
202 views

Microstructure effects for a market maker? [closed]

When building a market maker that rests limits orders on both sides of the book, what microstructure effects should we be looking at to price those orders? I’m targeting liquid futures markets, and ...
2
votes
2answers
105 views

How to work out weights for a portfolio based on an inverse ratio with positive and negative values?

I am trying to work out how to determine weights for the assets in order to form a portfolio. The ratio I am using is EV/EBIT, hence the smaller the better. The problem is I don't know how to handle ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

How can I calculate Fama-French betas for a particular stock?

For a particular stock, what's the simplest way to calculate betas for the Fama-French factors SMB and HML?
5
votes
3answers
205 views

Deriving Interest Rates

I am trying to teach myself about interest rate swaps, how they are priced, etc... Easy enough - just comparing cash flows of fixed and floating rate bonds. However, what I'm struggling with is how ...
4
votes
1answer
105 views

Risk-neutral pricing in incomplete markets

I know that in order to use the risk-neutral valuation principle, that is, pricing options as their payoff function under a risk neutral measure, one has to have a complete market. But in the ...
2
votes
1answer
272 views

Robust Returns-Based Style Analysis

Sharpe's Return-Based Style Analysis is an interesting theory but flawed in practice when working with long-short funds or funds that are changing strategies over shorter periods of time due to the ...
2
votes
1answer
141 views

Boundary condition for Asian Option under Black-Scholes model

I am looking at Kemna and Vorst's paper: A PRICING METHOD FOR OPTIONS BASED ON AVERAGE ASSET VALUES. see http://www.javaquant.net/papers/Kemna-Vorst.pdf Let $\text{d}S_t = S_tr\text{d}t + ...
3
votes
2answers
648 views

How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
3
votes
1answer
86 views

Pricing a FixedRateBond in Quantlib: yield vs TermStructure

I am trying to price a simple U.S. treasury in QuantLib, using two methods. The first method calls FixedRatebond.dirtyPrice(...), passing in a YTM and other parameters. The second method involves ...
10
votes
4answers
1k views

How to optimally allocate capital among trading strategies?

I'm trying to find an optimal way to allocate capital among trading strategies. "Quantitative Trading" by Ernie Chan claims on page 97 that the optimal fraction of capital to allocate to a given ...
2
votes
2answers
183 views

selecting test data for neural networks

I have been working on a neural network based on certain technical indicators. As people familiar with neural networks would know after developing a hypothesis, the developer is also supposed to ...
1
vote
1answer
107 views

Short-term directional trading

Did value of ratio between informed and uninformed traders at market, making difference to profitability of short-term directional trading on that market? My guess is yes and better play short-term ...
1
vote
3answers
85 views

CDS Spreads and Equity Volatility

Why does CDS spreads track the implied volatility on equities? What is the fundamental relationship that would keep the two inline from deviating too far from each other? My speculation: Could it be ...
5
votes
1answer
110 views

PDF Calculation by Fourier Inversion of Characteristic Function for Affine Intensity Process in Matlab

I'm trying to use the Fourier inversion formula to plot the PDF of an Affine Stochastic Intensity Reduced Form Credit Model, given its characteristic function. The characteristic function of an ...
2
votes
1answer
53 views

Swaptions vol trading lognormally

What does this mean: "Front-end vols have been trading lognormally while longer tails have traded normally." I read this in a research report, in the context of ...
2
votes
0answers
19 views

How do derivatives affect capital structures?

Yesterday, I was at a lecture where the speaker said that the impact of derivatives was often to make senior debt, in effect, subordinated debt (in terms of priority, recovery rates, etc.)? How do ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

How does US banks ensure that other country's banks aren't counterfeiting USD?

I have had this question for a long time. For example, if I wire 50M USD from China to the US, does the Chinese bank physically deliver 50M USD cash to the US bank? or is it just changing a number in ...
1
vote
1answer
146 views

robust open source Kalman filter library in C++

I would like to know if anyone has experience with a good open source kalman filter implementation in C++ that I could use. I require an implementation that supports computation of likelihood similar ...
-1
votes
0answers
62 views

Diversified Risk Parity

Is there any algorithm or steps in computing the principal portfolio weights, I am bit confused into how to evaluate the maximization of diversified risk parity weights by Harald Lohre, Heiko Opfer ...
1
vote
2answers
99 views

Is the purchase of a stock publicly accessible?

If an investor bought a stock, could another private party access that information anywhere? Does the SEC/exchange itself create a real time/ historical record of who holds what stocks, and is that ...
0
votes
0answers
85 views

High correlation will help detect spurious regression over cointegration?

I'm analyzing two financial time series with Johansen method. A high Correlation coefficient using the Pearson method will help me to detect spurious cointegration models to avoid? If this is not ...
0
votes
1answer
25 views

What does 2 Year Annualized mean compared to 1 Year Annualized

I am looking at a company's financial report and there is a table in it that lists returns over different annualized periods. It ranges from 1 year to 20 years. Would a 2 year return in this table be ...
0
votes
2answers
77 views

Is stock price priced in the uncertainty?

Consider a one step binomial tree model for stock price. The classical setup is as below: At time $t=0$, the stock price is $S_0$. At time $t=1$, the stock has probability $p$ to jump up to price ...
3
votes
1answer
67 views

Electricity market : how to design an optimal hedging strategy using spot and futures markets for an industrial consumer?

Here is the problem : we should adopt the point of view of an industrial company which purchases electricity as an input in its production line and which wants to achieve the following two goals : ...
1
vote
2answers
67 views

Basis Risk for Futures/Options

I am just reading about basis risk. It is being described as risk of the price of the hedging instrument not fluctuating the same as the instrument itself. I was just wondering, if we bought a ...
0
votes
1answer
107 views

How to price zero coupon bonds with short term rates model?

I want to find the price of Zero coupon bond given a short rate model. I think about Merton, Vasiceck, CIR, Ho & Lee models. 1) Given a simulation of $r_t$ how can I calculate $ P(t,T) = ...
2
votes
1answer
34 views

What different techniques exist for modeling exotics near payoff discontinuities in Finite Difference method?

If you are modeling an exotic, like a binary or a barrier, and hedging it with vanillas that have strikes quite close to the exotic's strike, then a large asset step size, for example, $\delta S = ...
0
votes
0answers
45 views

Kalman Filtering with Linear Restrictions

A question on this topic has been asked before: Combining a linear Kalman Filter with additional linear constraints? and I checked out some of the references given: ...
5
votes
0answers
299 views

Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
6
votes
1answer
464 views

Applicability of PCA to get historical volatilities to calibrate interest rates trees

My question in short is as follows: can I take main principal component of historical covariance matrix and use it as historical volatilities when fitting a binomial tree? Here's more detailed ...
1
vote
1answer
40 views

Which more topic should be covered in my undergraduate program? [closed]

Below is the topics covered in my undergraduate economics program. I want to know which course should I take to get a full overview of topics in finance today. Econometrics Micro, Macro Economics ...
2
votes
2answers
78 views

What is the correct / expected behavior for a market order sent to an empty book?

Should it stick around until liquidity shows up? (GTC) Should it cancel any size for which there is no liquidity? (IOC) Is there such a thing as Market GTC or Market Orders must always be IOC?
0
votes
0answers
50 views

Option payoffs and replicating payoffs

I've come across the below question which has no answers to it and I was hoping someone could provide some help. I know it quite a long question and I appreciate any help with this. An investment ...

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