4
votes
1answer
97 views

Use NIG distribution to model stock path

I would like to use Monte Carlo simulation to price some options. First I use standard approach where stock price is discribed by the following process: $$S_T = S_0\exp \left[(r - 0.5\sigma^2)T + ...
7
votes
1answer
48 views

Why Fama and French sort on June's size data and not of some other period?

In Fama and French (1993), p. 8, I read "In June of each year $t$ from 1963 to 1991, all NYSE stocks on CRSP are ranked on size (price times shares)." Later on the same page, they write ...
1
vote
3answers
97 views

Cross Currency Swap

1) What is the difference between Cross Currency Swap and Cross Currency Basis Swap? Appreciate if this can be explained in layman's terms. 2) Could you advise me which swap rate to be used for the ...
0
votes
2answers
56 views

Pricing a physical commodity forward contract

I have just started reading Options Volatility and Pricing 2nd edition and I'm a little confused on forward contract pricing. The book states ...
0
votes
1answer
17 views

Getting a better return on multiple combined stocks, than individual stocks gains. Kind of like a sports accumulator

Ive identified 4 stocks that i think will gain 10 - 20 % when their next quarterly report is released. If you've only got access to a small amount of capital say USD10,000 the by buying USD2,500 ...
0
votes
2answers
30 views

Stochastic Simulation vs percentile-to-percentile map

I was wondering why someone would go to the trouble to generate random variables in scenarios that are not path dependent. Let me provide a simple (although somewhat contrived) example. Lets say that ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Machine Learning Munging - order of transforms? + adding in econometric tests?

I have a list of possible transforms, and I've read some confusing/contradictory stuff about the preferred order in which these operations are performed. Maybe 1) the order is sometimes amorphous, ...
3
votes
1answer
53 views

CIR model - nth moment generation $E^*[r_T^n]$

I am analyzing the nth moment generation process for $r_t$ with dynamics defined by CIR model $r_t$ has following dynamics $$dr_t=a(b-r_t)dt+\sigma \sqrt{r_t} dW_t^* \quad \quad (1)$$ for some ...
0
votes
1answer
24 views

Stochastic volatility and forward start contracts

Why is it more accurate to use stochastic volatility when pricing let's say a forward start option (ie an option priced today but striked in a future date) ?
1
vote
1answer
64 views

Real time stationarity test

I have a trading system based on Machine Learning which is trading 8 symbols intraday. From the results I found out that some weeks of trading are successful for some symbols, then it usually switches ...
2
votes
1answer
31 views

If VIX measures SPX IV 30-days in future, how to modify formula to calc IV 60-days in future?

So I've gone over the CBOE VIX white paper a few times and understand it well enough to have written (Ruby) code to produce the correct VIX. I have the older version of the paper where it only used ...
0
votes
2answers
50 views

What is the data quality of ask (offer) versus bid quotes in FX markets?

I'm working with high frequency FX data. Because the FX market is a decentralized market, different traders often have slightly different prices at the same moment. I can see how this would ...
1
vote
0answers
29 views

Estimation of Affine Term Structure Model

In this paper the estimation of Affine Term Structure models via ML is discussed. In the Affine $N$-factors model the price of the bond is $$ P(X_t,t,T;\theta) = ...
0
votes
2answers
56 views

CAPM, DCF, and Jensen's inequality

One way to value a cashflow is to first calculate the expected return from CAPM, and then use the expected return to discount the future cashflows. The problem here is that the expected return from ...
3
votes
2answers
93 views

CIR model problem - deriving PDE, Feynman-Kac

I am reviewing a CIR model problem, where $r_t$ has following dynamics $$dr_t=a(b-r_t)dt+\sigma \sqrt{r_t} dW_t^* \quad \quad (1)$$ for some constants $ab>\frac{\sigma^2}{2} \quad$ Letting T ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views

LIBOR rates from Vasicek/Hull-White model?

I am somehow puzzled by the following problem: LIBOR rates are forward rates for an interbank loan for 1M or 3M (let's limit the range of possibilities to these two cases). Assuming that I have ...
4
votes
2answers
80 views

Convergence of the distribution of 0.05 quantiles through Monte-Carlo simulation

I am trying to get admitted to a masters in quantitative finance (I come from a computer science background), so next week I will have 3h to solve an exam in statistical computing using my favourite ...
0
votes
1answer
45 views

LIBOR 3M and 1M from Vasicek model

I would like to discuss my approach toward modelling of interest rates with respect to its downsides and advantages. My problem is to forecast daily LIBOR 3M and LIBOR 1M over a particular time ...
3
votes
3answers
95 views

existence of implied volatility

I read a book where it was written : 1/ "implied volatility is the market's consensus on the volatility of the asset between now and the maturity of the option". -> Could someone explain me this ...
0
votes
2answers
89 views

Solving for r in the Black Scholes equation

Could you please correct which parts of my reasoning are wrong? Let's suppose that I know for sure that my estimate for a stock volatility is right (I have a crystal ball) and that it will be for ...
1
vote
1answer
53 views

Expected Value of Products of Processes

Suppose I have two processes. $A_t = A_0 \exp((a-\frac{1}{2}\sigma_A^2)t+\sigma_A W_t^A$ $B_t = B_0 \exp((b-\frac{1}{2}\sigma_B^2)t+\sigma_B W_t^B$ I would like to calculate $E[A_s B_t]$ where s ...
1
vote
1answer
33 views

Calculation loan's margin from bank perspective

I was wondering how bank calculates in practice the amount of money it earns after granting a credit (I hope margin is the proper word). Supposing, that the client took 3-year 10000 euros loan (36 ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

FX Modeling references

I would like to have some sugestions of reference books on FX modeling with strong mathematical approach, preferably combined with market pratictioner quant perspective. All sugesting are welcome! ...
1
vote
1answer
70 views

How to statistically prove that an automated trading strategy outperforms the market? [closed]

For a university project, I have been working on a rather complex automated trading strategy, that levers machine learning techniques. I backtested the algorithm, as a result I have daily return data ...
1
vote
2answers
179 views

Volatility Smile Approximation

Does anyone know what type of model is used to model the skew and IVs inside Thinkorswim platform for its volatility smile approximation? I am trying to replicate but do not know where to start. Any ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

American call early exercise, considering a portfolio

Im aware there are lots of questions about this, but I am interested in a particular method of showing why an american call (with no dividends) should not exercised early. Here is the text I'm ...
0
votes
1answer
53 views

Ho-Lee model - A and B derivation for $P(t,T)=e^{-A(t,T)-B(t,T)r_t}$

I am analyzing the transition of the bond prices in the affine models in the form of $P(t,T)=e^{-A(t,T)-B(t,T)r_t}$ using the property that the diffusion and the drift of an affine model can be ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

When is option value inversely related to expected volatility?

It is common knowledge that the greater the expected value, the higher the option value. However, there are surely exceptions, as written by Paul Wilmott's FAQs in Quantitative Finance Q: If you ...
-1
votes
1answer
42 views

Determining confidence level of directional signals

With regards to technical analysis, are there ways of determining the confidence level of a directional signal? Taking a relative strength index (RSI) as an example, can the extent to which an asset ...
0
votes
1answer
35 views

Quantum Computing for Quantitative Finance

It's been a while that quantum computing is looked as the next step in computational science. I somewhat always tought we were decade aways from it's happening but it appears I was wrong: ...
0
votes
0answers
9 views

How to reduce variance of mean reversion estimator with maximum likelihood?

I estimate the parameters of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Maximum Likelihood. The mean reversion speed estimator is well known to be biased. There are methods to reduce the value of the expected ...
1
vote
1answer
49 views

Discount factor taking into account yield curve shape

I have always been told that the discount factor formula is just: $$ DF(T) = \frac{1}{(1+L_{t_0})^T} $$ where $L_{t_0}$ is the LIBOR rate on one period (the first one I guess) and $T$ the number of ...
1
vote
1answer
27 views

ATM volatility and flat volatility

Why do the implied volatility curve and the flat curve cross over the ATM volatility (at 100%) ? Tx
1
vote
1answer
40 views

“Expectation” of a FX Forward

I have an FX process $X_t = X_0 \exp((r_d-r_f)t+ \sigma W_t)$. Now clearly $E[X_t] = F_{0,t}^X$. i.e. a forward contract of the process $X$ starting at time 0 and maturing at time $t$. What if I ...
-1
votes
0answers
17 views

How to find loans for investor collateral

I got this asssigment: Company A lends 20 mil from investor and has to put up investment collateral of 30 mil worth of loans. Company A operates in underwriting business. Collateral loans have to ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Why do people use weighted regression with returns?

For example, by ADV. Intuitively it makes sense that a very liquid high ADV stock should carry more weight, but when I try it with some real life data I get higher standard error than unweighted...is ...
4
votes
0answers
90 views

How to trade the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?

My question comes from this paper, which is a short version of Avellaneda's paper The picture bellow provides a summary of the equations. Do I understand correctly that in order to trade OU process ...
1
vote
2answers
81 views

How to show that the exponential Vasicek model is not an affine term-structure model?

From the pricing formula, we know that the value at time $t\in [0,T]$ of a zero coupon bond maturing at time $T$ is $$ B(t,T)=E\left(\exp{\left(-\int_{t}^{T}r_sds\right)}\bigg|\mathcal{F}_t\right). ...
1
vote
1answer
52 views

Vasicek model problem

I am analyzing a problem where the below is given Vasicek model with risk-neutral dynamics $$dr_t = \kappa (\theta - r_t)dt + \sqrt{r_t} dW_t \quad \quad (1) $$ bond prices ...
0
votes
1answer
50 views

trading equities on options feed/microstructure data

Obviously, not asking for a trading strategy, but do people successfully use options feed/microstructure data to trade equities intraday? What's the general framework for such strategies?
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Modelling log-returns and calculating the portfolio return

I know this might be a trivial question, however, I would be grateful for some clarification. I am working on weekly log-return data, doing volatility-foracasting using GARCH models and then using ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Andersen Broadie American/Bermudan Put

I'm trying to implement Andersen and Broadie's dual method for an upper bound (here) of a regular American Put. I understand the process to compute it, but I have a conceptual issue : everything ...
3
votes
1answer
89 views

Girsanov Theorem for Quanto/Compo adjustment

Assume that I have a foreign asset $$Y_t = Y_0 \exp \left((r_f-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2_Y)t+\sigma_Y W_t^1\right)$$ and an exchange rate $$X_t = X_0 \exp\left((r_d-r_f-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2_X)t+\sigma_X ...
7
votes
2answers
439 views

Do efficient market hypothesis and random walk theory convey the same concept?

According to investopedia efficent market hypothesis is The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market ...
1
vote
1answer
54 views

Option delta - Conditional probability definition?

Can someone help me interpret this definition of delta? Delta is a conditional probability of terminal value (St) being greater than the Strike (X) given that St > X for a call option. Is the ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

Quanto/Compo adjustments - Product of two geometric brownian motion

Let's say I have two processes $X_t =X_0 \exp((a-\frac{1}{2}\sigma_X^2)t +\sigma_X dW_t^1)$ and $Y_t=Y_0 \exp((b-\frac{1}{2}\sigma_Y^2)t +\sigma_Y dW_t^2)$ and I then multiply them together (like ...
0
votes
0answers
9 views

model to predict variable evolution [migrated]

Suppose that I have a set of variables X1 X2 and X3 that explain the evolution of a ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views

Quantlib xll - Converting deposit/swap curve to zero curve

I am trying to create a spreadsheet using the Quantlib xll to convert deposit/swap rates to zero rates. I tried to implement such by referencing to the C++ code listed here: How to sum interest rate ...
1
vote
1answer
24 views

Why NYSE is not included in TAQ data for NASDAQ listed companies?

I am using TAQ data to see from which exchanges bids (or asks) are coming. I have got this for AAPL (Apple company, listed in NASDAQ) for a sample day: ...
0
votes
0answers
11 views

Daycount Actual/Actual AFB example

This question is about the following example in Wikipedia about time factor using the Actual/Actual AFB daycount. Assume that the $t_1=\text{28 Feb 2004}$ and $t_2=\text{29 Feb 2008}$. There are ...

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