3
votes
0answers
206 views

Fitting a non linear AR + GARCH(1,1)-M model

I want to fit the following model to a time series: $$ y_{t}=\alpha_{0}+\alpha_{1}y_{t-1}+\alpha_{2}y_{t-1}^{2}+\lambda h_{t}+\varepsilon_{t} $$ $$ ...
3
votes
0answers
57 views

Credit spreads vs default events dependence

Reading this note it strikes me that credit spreads and defaults seem not to be commonly modeled jointly (e.g. more or less directly in structural models), but at best with some kind of "ex post" ...
3
votes
0answers
221 views

how to represent financial data as a spatial process

Does any one have a good tutorial , introduction or overview on the web for different ways of representing financial data as a spatial process? Such as those spatial processes often used in ...
3
votes
0answers
120 views

Resources to read more about/learn how implied pricing works

I was looking at this video today: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/webinars-archived/implied-price-functionality.html on implied pricing. And am aware that implied orders/pricing ...
3
votes
0answers
326 views

Monty Hall Model

Given a fixed time period,say 3 days, the stock/market can go up,down or stay sideways. A hedge fund can long, short or use rangebound(options strategy) to bet for that 3 days closing level. Hedge ...
3
votes
0answers
101 views

Estimating two normal random numbers with one equation

Subtitle: Estimating the correlation of the shocks driving two commodities in two multi-factor models I am fitting two 2-factor models to electricity and gas futures, respectively. In order to ...
3
votes
0answers
346 views

How does one estimate theta in the Ho-Lee model from a yield curve?

I have a yield curve constructed using linear interpolation with data points every 3-months for US treasuries. I would like to use that calibrate a Ho-Lee model, but I can't wrap my head around how ...
3
votes
0answers
246 views

Measuring unbiased estimator for variance with RMSE?

The root mean squared error (RMSE) is considered by some to be the best measure of how good a variance estimate is. You often see it quoted as: $RMSE=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(\hat{\sigma_i} - ...
3
votes
0answers
211 views

Optimal Position Size with Transaction Costs given Forecast Mean and StDev

I have rather a challenging question. I'm hoping that someone can share their experience. I will build up the problem in steps. Let's start our thinking with the idea of a buy and hold strategy of ...
3
votes
0answers
86 views

Individual/casual investors and the bias towards blue-chip stocks?

There's quite a bit of research (example, [1]) teasing out the fact that home/casual/individual investors prefer stocks with large positive skewness. It surprised me, as I was reading a bunch of these ...
3
votes
0answers
278 views

Pricing with collateral

I have been confused about many things concerning the princing of securities with collateral. We can prove that today's price of a security( fully collateralized and within the same currency) is the ...
3
votes
0answers
367 views

Real time stock volatility

Is there any need for real time weighted volatility on a tick by tick basis for equities? If you had that access to that, what could you do with it?
3
votes
0answers
386 views

Is there a standard method of scaling alpha forecasts to t-cost estimates?

Given a set of monthly alpha forecasts (i.e. standardized z-scores from a multi-factor return model) and a non-linear market impact model (or more specifically, its piecewise-linear approximation), is ...
3
votes
0answers
120 views

Are there canonical test cases for testing of pricing engines

Short intro: We are developing pricing engines for the calculation of market risk in a Solvency II solution, including bonds, callable bonds, cds, options, futures and so on. Are there any canonical ...
3
votes
0answers
128 views

What is the relation between return volatility and return rank volatility, and how can I control the latter?

I have no experience in finance, but I've been playing around with a virtual portfolio. I'm trying to control the "rank volatility" distribution - that is, the volatility of a stock's daily rank in ...
3
votes
0answers
339 views

How to balance two Forex crosses correctly to do a linear regression?

I have two cross and an account in EUR: EUR/USD GBP/USD I would like to do a balanced linear regression using R. With "balanced" I mean that I would like to normalize it by calculating the ...
3
votes
0answers
166 views

Benefits of Diversification and Rebalancing with negatively skewed leptokurtic return distribution?

I am missing tools to investigate this issue. I am trying to solve this question here. What kind of issues should you acknowledge over the naive diversification/rebalancing with normal distribution? ...
3
votes
0answers
190 views

What is the longest number of consecutive days that options implied volatility has stayed “extremely high” for any particular underlying?

Curious as to whether or not there is any sort of all time record. Any index, future, or stock will do. Volatility must be well above the average 1 year volatility for all periods.
2
votes
0answers
47 views

Approximate asian geometric option with Heston

I am trying to implement Theorem 1 from this Journal in RStudio. The journal says the it is possible to find a approximate price of a geometric asian option in a Heston setup this way: ...
2
votes
0answers
49 views

why many option contract price less than minimum boundary price?

I downloaded data from NSE(National Stock Exchange) website regarding closing price of European Call Option written on Index. From standard textbook, I read that option contract must satisfy $C(t) ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

Bayesian logit model in Psychometric or Behavioural Testing for Credit Scoring in Developing Countries

A lot of parameters in one title, I know. So there's credit scoring but not using credit history. Then there's using a Bayesian logit model. Then there's doing so in a developing country such as Haiti ...
2
votes
0answers
75 views

How would it be possible to use Dynamic Programming to search a space of investment strategies to find an optimum?

As my question states, the problem I am having is finding a sensible way to search a large space. Any help or insight that could be provided would be hugely appreciated. Currently I am trying to ...
2
votes
0answers
68 views

Calculating Net Annualized Return on LendingClub historical data

I am interested in the formula LendingClub provides as their measure of "Net Annualized Return": $\big(1 + \frac{\sum_{i=1}^N{((I_i + L_i - S_i - C_i + R_i) / P_i) ...
2
votes
0answers
59 views

How does one simulate intraday strategies which don't end up flat at the close?

I ran into this trying to simulate trading interlisted names between the NYSE and the TSX. Depending on my strategy parametrization it would sometimes end up with a significant short or long dollar ...
2
votes
0answers
74 views

Simulation of Heston process

I am currently working on implementing Heston model in matlab for option pricing (in this case I am trying to price a European call) and I wanted to compare the results I obtain from using the exact ...
2
votes
0answers
86 views

Problem with Naive Bootstrapping (US Government Bonds)

I am using the formula here to determine the discount factor function and eventually the zero-coupon yields. I get the data for Coupons, Face Values and Closing Prices from Thomson Reuters, which I ...
2
votes
0answers
22 views

Comparing a money-weighted return of my own portfolio with a benchmark ETF/other portfolio that is subject to the same cashflows

I am able to calculate the money-weighted return (XIRR equivalent in Excel) of my portfolio. Whilst I can compare this with ‘headline’ returns of ETF’s, Mutual Funds etc, I want to isolate the timing ...
2
votes
0answers
66 views

Fitting High Frequency Indicators

I have a high frequency time series of the bid and ask prices of a stock recorded on every tick. For each data point I also have a certain indicators that predict the future movement of the price. The ...
2
votes
0answers
59 views

Hedging - calculating option prices using implied volatility surface

To hedge a strategy is it accurate "enough" to price an option using an implied vol curve vs moneyness (strike/spot) assuming sticky delta? The moneyness can be read off the chart, its corresponding ...
2
votes
0answers
20 views

The difference in sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model.

The question is that I want to know whether there is difference in the applying of sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model. In the ...
2
votes
0answers
32 views

Yield for valuation of illiquid corporate bond

I am trying to value a illiquid corporate bond issued at a discount to face value by a privately held company in India. The corporate bond is a sinkable bond (amortizing principle) with coupon rate of ...
2
votes
0answers
36 views

Residual Covariance Matrix, and MVO for Residual Variance and Alpha

My overall goal is to find an efficient frontier using QP in terms of $\alpha$ and residual variance ($\omega^2$) for a portfolio $P$ given a benchmark $B$. We know the equation for residual variance ...
2
votes
0answers
33 views

replicating strategy three step binomial

I am having some trouble setting up a replicating strategy for a call option with a three step binomial model (discrete). I have no trouble doing this in a two step binomial model by backward ...
2
votes
0answers
38 views

What are your list of concept or model in standard textbooks that are always reliable to used in working?

What are your list of concept or model in standard textbooks that are always reliable to used in working? As opposed back to this: What concepts are the most dangerous ones in quantitative finance ...
2
votes
0answers
43 views

Bond yield: is it martingale with respect to risk-neutral probability measure of some numeraire?

Let $t$ mean current time, let $T_0, T_n$ mean two times such that $T_0\le T_n$, and let $y_t[T_0, T_n]$ mean the forward swap rate of a swap starting at $T_0$ and ending at $T_n$. (I am ignoring ...
2
votes
0answers
116 views

Bloomberg scripting language (BLAN)

Did anyone work with Bloomberg scripting language (BLAN is the name I guess). If so is it really flexible and is it competitive with other valuation services (say Super Derivatives). Does it enable ...
2
votes
0answers
37 views

Value-at-Risk Calculation with respect to the Capital Requirements

I want to calculate the Value-at-Risk at date $t$ in such a way that I minimize the capital requirements given as \begin{align} \text{CR}_{\,t+1\,:\,t+250} = \sum_{h=0}^{249}\max\left( ...
2
votes
0answers
85 views

Modeling market sentiment and pricing options by volume, open interest

Are there any empirically-proven methods/formulas for weighting IV surfaces, pricing a discount/premium in an option, and/or adjusting any of the 1st- or 2nd-order Greeks for the magnitude (volume or ...
2
votes
0answers
55 views

Comprehensive List of Regime Switching/ Change Point Models

I am looking for a comprehensive list of regime switching/change point models/techniques which can be used to model different regimes / change points in financial time series. What I found so far are: ...
2
votes
0answers
100 views

Modified duration in multi-currency portfolio

I was thinking about how to figure aut duration for portfolio of bonds denominated in different currencies… I would like to compare sensitivity of portfolio to shift of yield with competitive ...
2
votes
0answers
44 views

Time between end of use of ticker symbol by one company and beginning of use by another?

I have a CRSP stock dataset that goes up to december 2013. I'm trying to append yahoo finance data to it in order to bring it up to the current day. However, there are ticker symbols that once ...
2
votes
0answers
47 views

How to calibrate volatility surface for Interest Rate Cap&Floor pricing

I'm using Black model to do interest rate Cap & Floor pricing. The volatility is determined by using the bootstrapping methodology. However, afterwards, how should I do the calibration, or ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Calibration of Heston version of CIR

I'd like to calibrate a variant of Heston model for interest rates which is describe by this couple of SDE \begin{aligned}dr_t&=a(b-r_t)+\sqrt{r_t}\sigma_t dW_t^1 \\ ...
2
votes
0answers
88 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
2
votes
0answers
60 views

Intraday versus daily volatility in slippage estimation

On page 21 of http://www.cims.nyu.edu/~almgren/papers/costestim.pdf Almgren has the formula $\displaystyle{\text{Slippage} = ...
2
votes
0answers
283 views

Downloading high-frequency data: S&P 500

can I ask you where am I doing something wrong when downloading high-frequency (5-min) S&P 500 data ("USA500.IDX") from https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/historical/ and when ...
2
votes
0answers
53 views

How to Handle Error in SEC Filings

Sometimes I see obvious errors in the 10-K or 10-Q filings that appear to go uncorrected in subsequent filings for the same period. For example, on June 9, 2014 Apple, Inc. did a 7-to-1 stock split. ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Calibration of Hull White One factor model in F.C.Park paper

I want to ask a question with reference to a paper from below link http://www.cmpr.co.kr/asset/research_material/implementing_interest_rate_models.pdf Minimization specified in Page 14: Mean ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
2
votes
0answers
99 views

Non-Negative Matrix Factorization - Estimating the Mean

How do you estimate the mean in a Non-Negative Matrix Factorization framework? It is obvious and well known how to estimate the covariance matrix, how ever I also need the estimated mean. I'm ...

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