2
votes
0answers
94 views

Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
2
votes
0answers
70 views

How to reproject rates risk on a subset of tenors

Is there a standard method (statistical or model based) to reproject rates risk obtained on a full set of tenors onto a smaller subset of tenors ? Let's imagine that I got a delta in the following ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views

Recreate Positions after downtime. Suggestions requested

We are trying to be able to get back to the Position state when our software goes down unplanned during the day. So far it seems we can get all our bought and sold quantity based on execution log we ...
2
votes
0answers
123 views

Fitting Student t-distributions to log-returns

It seems that some tail-risk centric groups are bent on using Paretian and t-distributions to account for tail risk when fitting log-returns. It has been observed, however, that with and without ...
2
votes
0answers
146 views

Potential pitfalls in the use of correlation

Background: The red line is an index, which goes from 0 to 100, measuring uncertainty in the markets. The dark blue line is a price index, which has a lower bound at 0, and virtually no upper bound. ...
2
votes
0answers
112 views

Can I trade the volume of a security or index?

Is it possible to trade a derivative product priced on the volume traded of some underlying security or index? Does such a derivative exist on any exchange traded markets? Or anywhere?
2
votes
0answers
173 views

How to properly take averages to reduce data in regression/panel data analysis

I'm trying to do a regression on my panel data. Say I have T=3500 days of data and N=125 firms. Since Matlab get's major memory issues (which I try to prevent by the usual solutions as seen on the ...
2
votes
0answers
111 views

What is the market impact of OTC trading ETFs?

I read an interesting statement here: "If an ETF’s market price tracks its NAV well, it is likely to have a small market impact. On the other hand, if the market price is more volatile than ...
2
votes
0answers
53 views

Calculating the error of a Trinomial Model

I've been trying to find a formula to obtain the maximum relative error a trinomial model with n timesteps will incur given all other inputs as compared to the standard BSM model. I'm concerned mostly ...
2
votes
0answers
118 views

Which method is implemented by Excel's YEARFRAC for ACT/ACT?

I know the algorithm used by Excel to calculate the YEARFRAC(startDate, endDate, basis) for basis=1. Excel calls the method "act/act". A Java re-implentation of Excel's algorithm can be found at ...
2
votes
0answers
237 views

Is this methodology to calculate Alpha using multi-factor regression model correct?

I am trying to find out Historical Alphas of a bunch of fund returns ${F_i}$ by Using Regression Model$(stepwise)$ with regressors as its underlying exposure-returns(risk-free rate subtracted) i.e. ...
2
votes
0answers
97 views

Pre-Trade Slippage Costs For Option Spread Execution

Is there a quant model that can help estimate how much slippage one would have to give up in order to get an "option spread" (vertical, butterflies, etc.) order executed? What factors should one look ...
2
votes
0answers
151 views

Should I use QuickFix or a 3rd-party commercial API to connect to the CME

I already use QuickFixN to connect to FX ECNs, and am now looking to branch out into futures. Googling it, it seems as if there are a lot of 3rd party APIs which are written to do this, but is there ...
2
votes
0answers
94 views

CVA DVA and Bilateral adjustment

I've already computed the CVA\DVA and now I would like to compute the bilateral adjustment. Does anyone know the relationship between the CVA\DVA with the bilateral adjustment? I mean a paper, ...
2
votes
0answers
108 views

Portfolio optimization with absolute position constraints

I'm looking to optimize a portfolio maximizing expected return for a particular risk budget, but with absolute constraints on the individual instrument positions. I've been experimenting with QP, ...
2
votes
0answers
182 views

What structural model does Reuters use for default probability?

When using Reuters, for each listed company there is credit tab that shows relevant information in terms of credit default. There is also rating class as well as one year default probability. It is ...
2
votes
0answers
364 views

FIGARCH estimation in R

I am trying to estimate a FIGARCH(1,1) model in R for Value-at-Risk purposes. As I understand it, the rugarch package does not support FIGARCH or FIEGARCH. To that end, I used the garchOxFit function ...
2
votes
0answers
114 views

Credit Valuation Adjustment Implementation

I am trying to help a friend with her thesis on Counterparty Credit Risk where she intends to have a somewhat lengthy treatment on Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA). Specifically I am looking to help ...
2
votes
0answers
83 views

Do some option pricing models allow for misspecification and what does it mean?

This is to some extent a theoretical question and maybe we can work together to produce some input and output. Diverse option pricing models are reported to be misspecified in various studies. One ...
2
votes
0answers
138 views

comparing total returns from various data vendors

I need to use various data sources to cover all of my data, and I am concerned by the discrepancies in total returns. Data vendors were helpful, but their simple documentation did not help resolve why ...
2
votes
0answers
213 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
2
votes
0answers
104 views

Is there such a thing as “sell-off risk” in bond funds?

Popular yet generally academically-grounded commentators such as Annette Thau and Larry Swedroe have claimed that there is the possibility for "sell-off risk" in bond funds. By this they apparently ...
2
votes
0answers
534 views

How to calculate the conditional variance of a time series?

I am reading a paper where the term conditional variance is mentioned, but I am not really sure what is meant by this and how this can be calculated: Fig. 2 shows the conditional variances of the ...
2
votes
0answers
104 views

Quantitative risk management strategy for a large participant in an illiquid market

Are there any practical quantitative risk management strategies for a large participant in an illiquid market with a few dominant players? By a large partcipant I mean someone who has significant ...
2
votes
0answers
65 views

FRA-Strategy: Make 3-month and 1-year Excess returns comparable

I am trying to analyze an investment strategy that tries to exploit the empirical difference between forward interest rates and realized spot rates. I am using FRAs to capture the difference. I am ...
2
votes
0answers
127 views

Any one know how to implement the Heston and Rouwenhorst country-sector effects regression in R?

Heston and Rouwenhorst (1994) devised an empirical estimation strategy to decompose stock returns into three components: a pure industry effect, a pure country effect, and a world-factor return. ...
2
votes
0answers
102 views

How to simulate a Geometric Binomial Process with state/tie dependent increments?

I want to simulate a geometric binomial process with state/time dependent increments. So the model is given by \begin{align}R_t=\frac{X_t}{X_{t-1}}\end{align} \begin{align}P(R_t=u)=p(X_{t-1},t) ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

Event studies using revenue data vs. measuring abnormal returns

This may be a silly question, but does there exist a methodology for examining the impact of "events" on companies that are not publicly traded? I suppose it would look at abnormal revenues rather ...
2
votes
0answers
71 views

Portfolio insurance with a coherent risk measure (CVaR)

I would like to analysis of portfolio insurance under a coherent risk-measure method (CVaR), How can I achieve that? Is there a way to turn the problem into a linear programming problem? or to ...
2
votes
0answers
81 views

What does it mean to adjust for short-run liquidity in finding risk-free rate of return

Risk-free rate of return should equal the expected long-run growth rate of the economy with an adjustment for short-run liquidity. What is meant by the last phrase, "adjustment for short-run ...
2
votes
0answers
231 views

Philips-Ouliaris test for cointegration

I'm trying to implement cointegration tests using the R urca package. I've figured out the Johansen test (ca.jo), but I'm having trouble with the Philips-Ouliaris test (ca.po). I have two questions: ...
2
votes
0answers
185 views

Error term/Innovation process in ARCH/GARCH processes?

I am wondering about the distribution of the error term/innovation process in a ARCH/GARCH process and its implementation, I am not sure about some points. The basic assumption is ...
2
votes
0answers
62 views

Is there an appropriate sequence to tests during model diagnosis?

How should one order (sequence) the following tests? Stationarity test Johansen cointegration test Normality/Histogram test Autocorrelation test Heteroskedasticity test Multicollinearity test ...
2
votes
0answers
167 views

How replicate data using PCA

I have a set of date covering petrol prices. My example has two columns where each row represents a sequential date. ...
2
votes
0answers
288 views

How does Hanson's Market Maker (LMSR) work?

Implementing Hanson's Market Maker states: If the market maker wants to quote a "current price", he can. The current price for outcome 1 is: $$ \mbox{price1} = ...
2
votes
0answers
83 views

Industry factors without GICS

I'm working through the Quantitative Equity Portfolio Management book by Chincarini and Kim. I'd like to build a basic industry-based fundamental factor model. As this is a pet project for ...
2
votes
0answers
89 views

Benchmarking risk

Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
2
votes
0answers
360 views

How to correctly construct a value- and equally weighted portfolio consisting of property-types?

A problem of which I couldn’t find the answer on the forum is about the construction of equally-weighted and value-weighted portfolio. I want to compute the equally-weighted property-type portfolio ...
2
votes
0answers
91 views

What does negative gamma mean in APGARCH model?

I got a gamma of -0.1321677. ...
2
votes
0answers
373 views

Does the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have stationary variance?

I know that the long run variance of the standard OU process is $\lim_{s\rightarrow \infty}\mbox{Var}(P_{t+s}|P_t) = \frac{\sigma^2}{2\theta}$ I'm using the geometric version of the process. I ...
2
votes
0answers
184 views

Data feed that shows individual orders

Does anyone know how I can obtain time and sales data for a stock? Lots of feeds provide the total volume but I would like to see the breakdown of what buy/sell orders made up the day's volume. I ...
2
votes
0answers
148 views

EUR/PLN and EUR/USD delta-term-vol surface quoting convension

does anyone know for sure what is the FX market convension to quote delta-term pairs for EUR/PLN, for EUR/USD. I know that for EUR/PLN it should be delta p.a forward, for EUR/USD it should be delta ...
2
votes
0answers
314 views

Markov-Switching E-GARCH with R

I am looking for a R library for modeling a Markov-Switching E-GARCH process. In other questions at StackExchange related to GARCH models, the package rugarch is often mentionned. Do you recommend it ...
2
votes
0answers
255 views

Yield Curve Volatility

Let you have several issuers, and let each issuer have its yield curve built up with liquid plain vanilla fixed rate bonds. Each yield curve has its slope and its curvature, and they obviously change ...
2
votes
0answers
129 views
2
votes
0answers
127 views

Is it possible to model general wrong way risk via concentration risk?

General wrong way risk is defined as due to a positive correlation between the level of exposure and the default probability of the counterparty due to general market factors. (Specific wrong way risk ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Changes to option valuation for dollar-pegged underlying

In Russia, options on futures on the RTS index are priced in points instead of currency, with points being directly related to the value of the US dollar such that, for example, if the dollar rises, ...
2
votes
0answers
130 views

Measure change in a bond option problem

This is not a homework or assignment exercise. I'm trying to evaluate $\displaystyle \ \ I := E_\beta \big[\frac{1}{\beta(T_0)} K \mathbf{1}_{\{B(T_0,T_1) > K\}}\big]$, where $\beta$ is the ...
2
votes
0answers
170 views

Optimal Position Size with Transaction Costs given Forecast Mean and StDev

I have rather a challenging question. I'm hoping that someone can share their experience. I will build up the problem in steps. Let's start our thinking with the idea of a buy and hold strategy of ...
2
votes
0answers
97 views

Combining Mulitple Forecasts? Budged Constraints?

I'm hoping that someone can lend a hand. I have been reading various papers on how to combine multiple forecast time series. The main paper is Granger and Bates 1969. The suggestion here is that there ...

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