# All Questions

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### Is Geometric Brownian Model suitable for long term price forecast?

I was thinking of using Geometric Brownian Motion to forecast future prices of timber (say one variable, the stumpage price of sawtimber). I tested the time series with Augmented Dickey-Fuller test ...
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### What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
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### Portfolio optimised for diversification and regular yield. How to hedge?

Here is a portfolio optimisation for equity dividend and yield designed to diversify holdings and produce regular monthly returns using only ETFs complete with R code. ...
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What is the best way to begin calculations for pairs trading? I have seen two ways: 1) Start from the price ratio (StockAPrice/StockBPrice) and calculate mean, standard deviation and z-score from a ...
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### what is the definition of resetting tenor and time to maturity tenor in libor rates

I have a question about the definition and understanding of libor rates. We have the time to maturity tenor, $T$, which is the time over which i borrow or lend money. For libor we also have the reset ...
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### Why is this delta-hedging/P&L example on a variance swap call correct?

I'm looking into this article about var swaps: http://sbossu.com/docs/VarSwaps.pdf and not sure how to correctly interpret Exhibit 2.1.1. "In this example an option trader sold a 1-year call ...
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### How do I specify Thirty360::European day counter in RQuantLib

I am taking liberty to ask the following question in quantLib forum though this question is about RQuantLib I am trying to use RQuantLib to calculate clean price of a fixed coupon bond using a ...
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### Market price of volatility risk

Reading Gatheral's The volatility surface, page 7. The model they are talking about is ...
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### Life annuity and the use of Gompertz-Makeham

The question goes as follows: Consider a life annuity contract that pays the holder a yearly fixed amount from a certain time until the death of the holder of the contract. (a) Suppose ...
147 views

### How do I artificially generate intraday ticks data from a given input (Open,High,Low,Close,Volume) using Brownian Bridge method?

How do I artificially generate intraday ticks data from a given input (Open,High,Low,Close,Volume) using Brownian Bridge method? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_bridge P.S: Brownian Bridge ...
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### how to apply a simple copula model

I'm playing around with copulas and wanted to generate some sample based on copula techniques in R. For this purpose I applied the following algorithm: Generate three sample vectors coming from ...
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### Inflation/Rates Correlation

I've been looking into a short piece of maths a colleague has written on pricing inflation with payment delays, and was hoping someone could confirm whether my understanding is correct, or if my ...
56 views

### seasonality and generalized additive model

I am reading a report which talks about seasonality. There is a chart showing the average returns for each month of the year. In the chart it appears the last 3 months of the year tend to be negative. ...
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### Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (formula dont match Monte Carlo Simulation)

I posted this question before on MSE I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all ...
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### negative transition probabilities in the heston model

I've been trying to implement a bivariate tree for pricing american options with the heston model in R using the paper of Beliaeva and Nawalkha ...
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### Testing Statistical Significance of Various Portfolio Simulations

I'm trying to determine which of my portfolio simulations/backtests if any are good enough to put some money into. I outline an approach below and I'm interested in knowing: What problems are there ...
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### Game theory and antagonistic games in trading

In one of the topic here, particularly in the comments, i saw a link to the page describing connection between Antagonistic Games and finances but i cannot find it now and would appreciate if somebody ...
106 views

### Scale of Market Quakes Computation

I would like to reproduce the results in the paper "The scale of market quakes", from T. Bisig, But I am getting stuck at the computation of the Fourier Coefficients in equation (4). They are defined ...
67 views

### Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
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### How can I break down the change in value for an inflation-linked bond

I am trying to decompose the change in value of an inflation-linked bond into two constituent parts: 1) That due to changing nominal rates on the issuer's non-linked bonds 2) That due to changing ...
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### Practitioner's criterion for MC pricing convergence

Let's say I have some Interest Rates (IR) pricing model which relies on Monte Carlo pricing and I'd like to benchmark its quality and find out optimal settings (time steps & iterations) per asset ...
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### State Space models with Short Time Series

My problem is that I have a state space model that I estimate using the Berndt–Hall–Hall–Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. The state space model is relatively simple in that the hidden part follows a pure ...
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### what kind of test for volatility and where find the data

I am working on a model for stochastic volatility. In short, the model try to capture that the volatility goes up suddenly after a shock (war, policy, financial events, etc) and then goes down slowly, ...
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### Testing for the presence of a positive or negative gamma effect

I am currently analyzing a statistic that I believe will have the effect of hedgers having a positive or negative gamma position in certain stocks. In the case where I believe hedgers have positive ...
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### Discretization Schemes

I am working with two correlated SDE's and I was wondering if I could use two different discretization schemes for them. Is there maybe a reference of this being done? And can something be said about ...
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### Formal Proof of Immunization Techniqu

Please correct me if I am wrong in understanding the Immunisation Technique behind bond interest rate risk management. It says that any change in interest rate can be neutralised by reinvesting the ...
105 views

### Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette Model

im trying to predict crash time by using lppl model(JLS). My codes can run, but the error is to high....I try with some other initial values, but still can't reduce the error.....How i can reduce ...
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### What equation will convert implied yield volatility to implied price volatility?

I am trying to figure out how to turn implied yield volatility of a short-term interest rate into implied price volatility. Is there an equation to do this? I have come across the equation for a ...
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### What is the main reasons to use Miltersen & Schartz (1998) model for commodity futures options

versus a standard Generalised Black and Scholes model (if there are any?) I have read the paper but I am not to sure about its practical implications as would people with more experience using this ...
133 views

### What happened to Mountain View Analytics?

I stumbled over Thomas Cover's work on algorithmic portfolio selection; apparently, an outfit called "Mountain View Analytics" attempted to implement the suggestions from Cover's research. ...
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### Effective simulation of multi factor Heston model

Im looking for a quick way (as in runs quick, not necessarily is quick to implement) of simulating multiple square root processes for a stochastic volatility model, flexible enough to allow for ...
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### Risk neutral measure for jump processes

How can I construct risk neutral measure for option price if active price form is: $$S(t)=S(0)\left[\exp{σW(t)+(α-βλ-1/2σ^2)t+Q(t)}\right] ?$$ Here $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion and $Q(t)$ is a ...
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### At-the-money Call Spread approximation

In a trading manual I got during a course, the value of the ATM Call-Spread is approximated by $CS_{ATM}=\frac{1}{2}StrD+(F-m)\times\Delta CS$ The lecturer skipped the part where he derived this ...
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### Bond (yield curve) dynamics in the Forward-LIBOR-market-model

The standard Libor-Forward-Market-Models provides a way of modelling the evolution of forward rates in time. However the model does not seem to be well suited for the modelling of zero-bonds. But ...
115 views

### Weighted average implied optionlet/swaptions volatility

Let an implied volatility curve/surface is made up by optionlets or swaptions Black's implied volatility. If you wanted to price, say, a FRN with cap and/or floor, a CMS et cetera you would input the ...
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### How can dividend protection be considered in the binomial model in pricing the convertible bond?

If the convertible bond has dividend-protection, how can we cater it in the binomial model? If there is dividend protection at or above 1%, can we impose input of dividend yield of 1% in the ...
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### Zakamouline Optimal Hedging of Options with Transaction Costs

I've read that the Zakamouline method suggests the best optimal hedging of options when taking transaction costs into account. I've read the article but am having difficulty understanding it well ...
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### Forecasting amount of slippage in executing option spreads

Is there a good quantitative model to estimate how much slippage is required to execute a particular option spread trade? For example, let's say you want to execute an Iron Condor. Given X, Y, Z ...
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### The concept of an incomplete market

While skeeming the relevant literature and web-sites I noticed that mostly the concept of the incomplete market is reduced to the following statement "A market is incomplete if there are more ...
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### Does Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003) VIX building approach underestimate volatility?

From a paper that shortly addresses an alternative approach to VIX-like index building: To test this approach, I've built a fake book of B&S options with constant volatility equal to ...
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### Derivation of variance of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996) Zhou 1996 Any help would be ...
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### Reasoning for Bloomberg's short rate volatilty calculation

Bloomberg, in its documentation, explains that it calculates the short rate volatility for its Hull White implementation by multiplying the e.g. 10y IRS rate (divided by 100) by the 10y cap vol. Why? ...