All Questions
11
votes
3answers
687 views
How to detect regime change when estimating asset correlation from historical time series?
Suppose I have two asset time series, $X_t$ and $Y_t$, and I'm estimating their correlation from historical data. I'd like to apply some systematic criterion to estimate what time window I should use ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views
Papers about backtesting option trading strategies
I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
11
votes
3answers
3k views
R: How feasible is it to store — and work with — tick data in a database connected to R?
I'm looking to convert some tickdata .csv files into a database on a local disk and then use R to call the data and do my various analytics and modelling.
What are some best practices / ...
11
votes
4answers
2k views
Implementing data-structures in a Limit order book
I'm working on implementing a 'LOB' and I'm being very careful about choosing my data-structures so as to maximize performance.
Using F# as an example, I need to consider a List versus Array for ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views
Control for bid/ask bounce in high-frequency trade data?
The bid-ask bounce is the bouncing of trade prices between the bid and ask sides of the market. It introduces a systematic bias to the data which can cause serious problems in analysis.
What methods ...
11
votes
2answers
1k views
Is there any good research on support and resistance?
Could somebody advise me on where to find good literature on the justification or motivation for using support and resistance lines - and also lines of maximums and minimums. In finance, it is ...
11
votes
5answers
1k views
portfolio optimisation with VaR (or CVaR) constraints
I would like to optimize a portfolio allocation (maximizing the exposure or the expected return), but with VaR or CVaR contraints. (some parts of my portfolio cannot exceed a certain VaR)
How can I ...
11
votes
3answers
571 views
What is the most effective way of determining & measuring the level of HFT activity in a stock in (close to) real time?
On a security by security basis, I want to be able to quantify the level of HFT activity (and later institutional & retail activity). Is it higher than it normally is? How much so?
What would you ...
11
votes
6answers
2k views
Probability of touching
For a vanilla option, I know that the probability of the option expiring in the money is simply the delta of the option... but how would I calculate the probability, without doing monte carlo, of the ...
11
votes
2answers
3k views
Are there any good tools for back testing options strategies?
There are all kinds of tools for backtesting linear instruments (like stocks or stock indices). It is a completely different story when it comes to option strategies. Most of the tools used are ...
11
votes
2answers
449 views
How credible is Knight pointing the finger at Rule 107C?
After the Knight Capital incident, I decided to read into the new Rule 107C that NYSE pushed-out August 1st for a one-year pilot. From what I've read, Knight claims that new code rolled out for this ...
11
votes
2answers
609 views
What is the precision of standard deviation estimates with small samples?
I was asked today to "quantify" the precision of an estimated the standard deviation from a small sample, I was not sure how to answer.
The case is quite simple, I have a sample of $n=25$ measures ...
11
votes
4answers
2k views
data on historical stock price of bankrupt companies
does anybody know a site where I can download historical data on stocks including companies that have gone bankrupt such as lehman brothers?
it appears that bankrupt companies no longer appear in the ...
11
votes
4answers
2k views
Volatility pumping in practice
The fascinating thing about volatility pumping (or optimal growth portfolio, see e.g. here) is that here volatility is not the same as risk, rather it represents opportunity. Additionally it is a ...
11
votes
3answers
762 views
11
votes
2answers
898 views
How to update an exponential moving average with missing values?
Say you have an Exponential Moving Average being continuously updated over a time series using 1-second-long time periods. What should happen if there is no value for the next second, e.g. there were ...
11
votes
3answers
537 views
What are some research articles on using principle components to generate alpha?
Here's an example by Marco Avellenada from NYU titled "Statistical Arbitrage in the U.S. Equities Market". The idea of this paper involves capturing mean reversion in the residual returns of a ...
11
votes
2answers
406 views
Can you replicate an option on an arbitrary basket of stocks?
Since a market index is nothing more than a basket of stocks, you can create your own index by putting together stocks of your choice. The only difference is that you can trade options on major ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views
Free intra-day equity data source
Are there any free data source for historical US equity data? Yahoo finance has daily prices but I'm looking for something more granular and goes back 2 or more years (doesn't have to be close to tick ...
11
votes
2answers
467 views
Operating parameters of market makers?
I'd like to get a feel for the operating parameters of official market makers. I'm looking more for discerning characteristics, rather than exact numbers or an exhaustive list of each MM.
Examples: ...
11
votes
3answers
359 views
How are prices calculated for commercial/residential mortgage-backed securities?
What is the theoretical/mathematical basis for the valuation of [C]MBS and other structured finance products? Is the methodology mostly consistent across different products?
11
votes
2answers
417 views
What benchmark/index to use for backtesting a portfolio of stock options?
What benchmark should I use for backtesting a model for when I should buy an option of a particular stock? For equities, one could say their portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. I would like to ...
11
votes
1answer
3k views
How to interpret the eigenmatrix from a Johansen cointegration test?
I ran a Johansen cointegration test on 3 instruments, A B and C.
The results that I got are:
R<=x | Test Stat | 90% | 95% | 99%
r=0 --> 36.7 | 18.9 | 21.1 | 25.8
r=1 --> ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views
Techniques to optimize the placement of orders in market making strategy?
Market making often requires placing and canceling a lot of orders. You have to buy and sell nearly simultaneously, so you need to move orders pretty often to beat other traders. But I would like to ...
11
votes
2answers
2k views
How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk?
How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk? In what context would an analyst use these metrics?
11
votes
2answers
417 views
Copula models and the distribution of the sum of random variables without Monte Carlo
There is a vast literature on copula modelling. Using copulas I can describe the joint law of two (and more) random variables $X$ and $Y$, i.e. $F_{X,Y}(x,y)$.
Very often in risk management (credit ...
11
votes
4answers
3k views
Is statistical arbitrage on FX possible?
Do you know of any papers which consider pairs trading (or statistical arbitrage) on foreign exchange? I couldn't find any. I asked this question on several forums and got no reply. Thus I guess this ...
11
votes
5answers
680 views
What are the best Journals & Conferences in Quantitative Finance?
What are some of the most prominent journals, conferences and publishing venues in Quantitative Finance research? Where can I find information more information about them? (e.g. impact factor and ...
11
votes
1answer
666 views
What is a good topic on financial time series analysis for master thesis?
Can someone suggest a topic or some reasonably narrow area in financial time series analysis (e.g. statistical, machine learning, etc.) which can make a good topic for a master thesis? By 'good' I ...
11
votes
1answer
219 views
Are BSDE's used in practice?
In the academic applied probability/math finance community, Backwards Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE's) are extremely popular, and they provide a single framework for several different ...
11
votes
1answer
511 views
Quantitative Analysis Games on Investing?
I have been playing a quantitative investing game (instructions here) that is actually quite interesting, teams have some time to decide their next moves. It requires all kind of knowledge such as ...
11
votes
1answer
664 views
Cleansing covariance matrices via Random matrix theory
I am exploring de-noising and cleansing of covariance matrices via Random Matrix Theory. RMT is a competitor to shrinkage methods of covariance estimation. There are various methods expressed usually ...
11
votes
1answer
731 views
How do I price OANDA box options?
How do I price OANDA box options without using their slow and
machine-unfriendly user interface?:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com (free demo account) sells "box options":
If you already know what a ...
10
votes
7answers
5k views
Is the Interactive Brokers API suitable for hft?
By hft here I mean anything with holding period less than 5-10mins...
Any empirical/anecdotal evidence of using it successfully on even higher frequencies?
10
votes
5answers
7k views
How to annualize Sharpe Ratio?
I have a basic question about annualized Sharpe Ratio Calculation: if I know the daily return of my portfolio, the thing I need to do is multiply the Sharpe Ratio by $\sqrt{252}$ to have it ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views
How are limit orders selected from the order book?
I'm sure there is a simple answer to this but I haven't had any luck with searches. I'm just wondering when someone places a market order which order(s) from the limit order book are selected to fill ...
10
votes
7answers
664 views
Keeping a track record honest
I want to start a blog/newsletter and maintain a track record of
trades I recommend. I have a never-expiring demo account for this
purpose.
How do I keep this track record "honest"? Three months ...
10
votes
7answers
929 views
Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book.
Recently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer.
After I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that ...
10
votes
7answers
2k views
Why does implied volatility show an inverse relation with strike price when examining option chains?
When looking at option chains, I often notice that the (broker calculated) implied volatility has an inverse relation to the strike price. This seems true both for calls and puts.
As a current ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views
Hedging stocks with VIX futures
It seems that VIX futures could be a great hedge for a long-only stock portfolio since they rise when stocks fall. But how many VIX futures should I buy to hedge my portfolio, and which futures ...
10
votes
5answers
685 views
Monte carlo methods for vanilla european options and Ito's lemma.
I understand that by applying Ito's lemma to the following SDE
$$dX=\mu\,X\,dt+\sigma\,X\,dW$$
one obtains a solution to the above SDE which is as follows:
$${X}\left( t\right) =\mathrm{X}\left( ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views
How to incorporate technical indicators into neural networks?
I plan to develop a neural network to trade commodities futures, but while messing around with some code, a question came up. If I understand correctly, people use various technical indicators with ...
10
votes
5answers
2k views
References for developing an automated trading system?
I am looking for references on the architecture of automated trading systems and the trading algorithms behind them. I am more interested in system development than analysis. A couple of books I ...
10
votes
5answers
747 views
Is it possible to use a series of option prices to predict the most likely path of an asset?
I've always wondered about this.
If you have a series of options, with the expires spaced let's say one week between them, and you search for each expiration date the option with the smallest ...
10
votes
4answers
2k views
Using linear regression on (lagged) returns of one stock to predict returns of another
Suppose I want to build a linear regression to see if returns of one stock can predict returns of another. For example, let's say I want to see if the VIX return on day X is predictive of the S&P ...
10
votes
5answers
1k views
Formal proof for risk-neutral pricing formula
As you know, the key equation of risk neutral pricing is the following:
$\exp^{-rt} S_t = E_Q[\exp^{-rT} S_T | \mathcal{F}_t]$
That is, discounted prices are Q-martingales.
It makes real-sense for ...
10
votes
2answers
551 views
Why is the ratio of Hi-Low range to Open-Close range close to 2?
I tried it in several symbols and timeframes with the same result:
$$\frac {mean(HIGH-LOW)}{mean(|CLOSE-OPEN|)}$$
...
10
votes
5answers
419 views
What benefits are there to employing agile software development methodologies for quants?
Perusing the other SE network sites, particularly Programmers, I often find vigorous support for various agile software development methodologies, particularly the various values known as Extreme ...
10
votes
3answers
765 views
Is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) coherent?
When the risk is defined by a discrete random variable, is CVaR a coherent risk measure? I stick to the following definition of CVaR:
$$ CVaR_\alpha(R) = \min_v \quad \left\{ v + \frac{1}{1-\alpha} ...
10
votes
2answers
881 views
Is there a standard model for market impact?
Is there a standard model for market impact? I am interested in the case of high-volume equities sold in the US, during market hours, but would be interested in any pointers.
