0
votes
1answer
544 views

Which prediction market model is efficient and simple to use?

For a college project I'm tasked with implementing prediction market. Which model of it I'd better choose? I want something useful and simple enough for other people to quickly understand and use. ...
4
votes
0answers
356 views

Asymmetric Volatility Modeling (Interpretation)

I am currently writing a paper on asymmetric volatility modeling of brent, gold, silver, wheat, soybean and corn from 1986-2012 and divided them into 4 sub-sample periods (i.e. 1986-1991, 1991-1997, ...
4
votes
2answers
330 views

Generate correlated random variables from Normal and Gamma distributions

I want to generate a random vector $z$ of dimension $k+m$ with some given correlation matrix $\Sigma$, such that the first $k$ elements of the vector are distributed normally and the last $m$ elements ...
2
votes
3answers
457 views

What data transformations to use in regression of credit spreads on equity prices?

Clearly there is a strong relationship between credit spreads and equity prices (both theoretically and empirically). But how would one go about formulating a regression which seeks to explain this ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

What is the “leverage effect” for stocks?

I've read the so-called "leverage-effect" for stocks models the fact that if a company is leveraged, its volatility should increase as the stock price moves lower and closer to the level of debt. Can ...
3
votes
1answer
149 views

Value options when the currency’s risk free rate is negative?

How would you handle a negative interest rate in index/equity options valuation? An example would be negative rates for short term maturities for Swiss Frank (CHF).
5
votes
3answers
8k views

How to fit ARMA+GARCH Model In R?

I am currently working on ARMA+GARCH model using R. I am looking out for example which explain step by step explanation for fitting this model in R. I have time series which is stationary and I am ...
3
votes
1answer
417 views

BDT model implementation

I am looking for a nice and readable description of how to implement BDT model: $d log(r(t)) = [\theta(t)-\frac{\sigma'(t)}{\sigma(t)}log(r(t))]dt + \sigma(t) dW$. I assume I already have ...
2
votes
3answers
870 views

What is the clean price and dirty price of a risky bond?

Following up on this question: Yield of a risky bond, what is the definition of clean and dirty prices for a risky (defaultable, catastrophe, etc.) bond? I would think the dirty price should ...
3
votes
0answers
96 views

Resources to read more about/learn how implied pricing works

I was looking at this video today: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/webinars-archived/implied-price-functionality.html on implied pricing. And am aware that implied orders/pricing ...
2
votes
4answers
2k views

Why is short term implied volatility typically higher?

Why do short term implieds move more than long term?
3
votes
1answer
485 views

Regime switching in mean reverting stochastic process

Let you have a mean reverting stochastic process with a statistically significant autocorrelation coefficient; let it looks like you can well model it using an $ARMA(p,q)$. This time series could be ...
2
votes
1answer
203 views

Inflation swap liquidity versus inflation-linked bonds

In which markets are inflation swaps considered liquid enough to be the primary instrument for measuring market inflation expectations (compared to say, inflation-linked bonds)? Are there specific ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the mean and the standard deviation for Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process?

I am uncertain as to how to calculate the mean and variance of the following Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. $$d X(t) = a ( L - X_t ) dt + V X_t dW_t$$ Is anyone able to calculate the mean ...
1
vote
2answers
4k views

Early execise of American Call on Non-Dividend paying stock.

Let us consider an American call option with strike price K and the time to maturity be T. Assume that the underlying stock does not pay any dividend. Let the price of this call option is C$^a$ today ...
4
votes
1answer
448 views

Rubinsteins Implied Binomial Tree - how to calculate the cumulative returns

I am working on Rubinsteins IBT and use the following paper to implement this into excel: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=541744 the original paper can be found here: ...
3
votes
1answer
86 views

Is this comment right about subadditivity?

I found this comment in a book I bought about risk management: Risk Management in Banking by Joel Bessis. This is the well-known rule that states that the sum of individual risks is less than ...
3
votes
4answers
476 views

Yield of a risky bond

When working with risky bonds, i.e. corporate bonds, what is usually defined as the yield of such a bond? Is it the yield calculated as if the bond was riskless, or is it calculated by properly taking ...
-2
votes
2answers
277 views

BS and delta hedging questions

I have two related questions concerning Black Scholes and delta hedging. I thought about this two questions, but I could not come up with an answer, so maybe you guys & girls can help me: If an ...
2
votes
3answers
476 views

Optimizing a currency only portfolio with negative weights

I am testing various optimization methods for a currency-only portfolio. I have a vector of expected returns for the major developed currencies vs. the USD each week (based on a proprietary model). I ...
4
votes
4answers
2k views

Fastest algorithm for calculating retrospective maximum drawdown

Simple question - what would be the fastest algorithm for calculating retrospective maximum drawdown ? I've found some interesting talks but I was wondering what people thought of this question here. ...
3
votes
2answers
294 views

Why use market capitalization weighted index over PCA?

Why is it so popular to use market capitalization weighted indices instead of taking the first principle component that explains the most variation of the constituents? I haven't yet seen an academic ...
-3
votes
1answer
447 views

Why do we need derivatives? [closed]

I read somewhere that derivatives are the biggest weapons of financial destruction. Why do we need derivatives? If exploiting risk-proneness of people to make profit is the goal, why don't we stop ...
2
votes
0answers
303 views

Yield Curve Volatility

Let you have several issuers, and let each issuer have its yield curve built up with liquid plain vanilla fixed rate bonds. Each yield curve has its slope and its curvature, and they obviously change ...
3
votes
3answers
175 views

How to see if a set of asset returns corresponds to a known correlation matrix?

Let's say I have an arbitrary set of $n$ period returns for $k$ assets, and a given $k \times k$ correlation matrix (of asset returns), which is known a priori. Does it makes sense, or is it even ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Determining portfolio risk return in R given historical data for individual holdings?

Currently we compute portfolio risk and return via our own C# program. Historical data is stored in a SQL database. We want to compute the risk and return parameters - given a portfolio (i.e. not ...
1
vote
1answer
58 views

Why might a manager consider using an interest-rate in which the notional principal amount declines over time?

Say swap would be used to convert the payments of its portfolio of fixed-rate residential mortgage loans into a floating payment. Why might a manager consider using an interest-rate in which the ...
4
votes
2answers
246 views

How to reactivate a risk mangement rule in an automated process

If some conditions are met (stop loss, trailing stop, take profit...) we will close ours positions (sell/buy) to avoid having more loss or to ensure profit. In an automatic trading system, it is easy ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

Hidden Markov Model & Its Application

I have started reading about HMM it gives an intuitive idea about what HMM is all about. I am looking out for example where its applied to Equity model using R / Excel. The material which I read so ...
4
votes
5answers
536 views

What sources would you recommend for Real Time Market Data other than Bloomberg/Reuters?

I am dealing with a strategy that is not high-frequency based. The strategy consumes normalized data from Bloomberg and Reuters. For US equity market, can someone recommend some real-time data ...
1
vote
1answer
173 views

Eurdollar Futures

Trying to understand the Eurdollar market a little better. I understand it's the market for dollar denominated deposits outside the US (not just in Europe). They are unregulated and not subject to ...
1
vote
1answer
637 views

How to interpret/use VaR and Standard Deviation?

The parametric VaR is defined as follows: $$VaR=Z_a*Vol$$ Is this the best way to interpret how much risk is being taken on for a particular asset? How does one interpret volatility on its own if ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

How to attribute income that incurs a double liability in a P&L?

I'm a developer writing a system for a startup. Without giving away too much of the business model, here are the basics of how it works: The web site has two forms of "currency": tickets and ...
2
votes
1answer
139 views

Can determinant of liquidity risk be used as a dimension or measure of liquidity risk

Can I take liquidity risk determinant as a dimension of it in order to examine the impact of liquidity risk on performance of banks? For example in a literature, Tangibility i.e., ratio of fixed ...
6
votes
4answers
841 views

Threshold calculation for buying a mean-reverting asset

I am trying to figure-out an optimal policy for buying a unit when its price follows a mean-reverting price process (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck), when I have a finite time deadline for buying the unit. I ...
2
votes
4answers
487 views

easy one step option replication

I have the following question. Consider that you have a stock currently trading at 100\$. In one month it can jump to 120\$ with probability 99% and go to 80\$ with probability 1%. How much is call ...
5
votes
2answers
287 views

Most natural generalization of covariance/correlation to model dependence of extreme events

One of the most serious shortcomings of covariance/correlation are the assumptions of linearity and normality. What is the most natural generalization of these measures of dependence when you want to ...
2
votes
1answer
863 views

what is the implied volatility on a basket of options

If I have 4 optionable stocks A,B,C,D and each different implied volatilies,IV-A,IV-B,IV-C,IV-D. How do get the implied volatility for a basket option on A,B,C,D where the basket weights are w-A=.6, ...
2
votes
1answer
173 views

How to enumerate all the possible portfolios with a given target volatility?

Let's say I have $n$ assets and their returns are stored in a matrix $X \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$ (i.e. I have $m$ returns for each of them. The covariance matrix of the returns is $\Sigma \in ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

price of a “Cash-or-nothing binary call option”

I'm stuck with one homework problem here: Assume there is a geometric Brownian motion \begin{equation} dS_t=\mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t \end{equation} Assume the stock pays dividend, with the ...
3
votes
2answers
621 views

Using the termstrc package in R

I am attempting to use the function estim_nss from the termstrc package in R to find the spot curve from constant maturity rates published by the Fed. I am using this package because I will need to ...
6
votes
4answers
618 views

How to cluster ETFs to reduce cardinality for portfolio selection

I'm looking to run portfolio optimizations using various optimization goals - e.g. minimum variance, max diversification etc. My challenge is if I want to do this on ETF's which ones do I pick to run ...
-3
votes
1answer
520 views

Target daily ROI for a market-making algorithm

I'm designing a market-making algorithm, I was wondering what a decent ROI / day would be to aim for in such a system?
1
vote
2answers
165 views

round price to tick size

I have an issue about rounding price to tick size. Suppose there is price tick table below. what is tick size for price 1001, 1002 ... 1004? In other words, how to handle the price in between upper ...
1
vote
0answers
38 views

How does a covered bond characteristics compare to a mortgage security for credit enhancement?

I need help with understanding how does a covered bond characteristics compare to a mortgage security for credit enhancement?
2
votes
3answers
1k views

Is MATLAB-generated code good enough for use in live trading?

I know that MATLAB has mechanisms for generating code, but I've never used them. Have you? If you have - is it good enough (=fast enough, I guess) to be used in live trading systems? Anything one ...
1
vote
2answers
870 views

Calculating true value of a stock given the order-book and recent trades

I'm trying to calculate the 'true value' of a stock listed on an exchange. I have access to the limit order-book (containing all bid/ask quotes) and also all trades which have taken place (which ...
0
votes
1answer
152 views

Price difference between bond cash and futures

I used to trade German and US govt. bond futures and I am now having trouble understanding the price difference of these markets against the cash market. For example, the 10 year german government ...
2
votes
1answer
110 views

Limits analysis

I have a few time series of models to analyse in terms of how far/close they are to their underlying limit. The limit is a simple value on the y-axis (always positive), and the series can act ...
5
votes
1answer
216 views

How to build an electricity portfolio for an electricity production company?

I am referring to an electricity production company. Company is located in AsiaPac. The power is generated using Natural Gas fired combined-cycle power plants. Then this electricity is distributed to ...

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