1
vote
3answers
143 views

What is the difference between market equilibrium and market efficiency? equilibrium implies efficiency?

The market efficiency hypothesis means securities are traded at their fair price. If the market is at the equilibrium, does it mean the market is efficiency? If equilibrium cannot implies efficiency,...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

R quantstrat backtest with dollar based position sizing

I am attempting to tweak a quantstrat based backtest but have run into an issue. The maxPos limits are share based, and I would rather use a fixed dollar amount instead. So I've tried generating a ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Choosing Optimum Sampling Frequency

There was an interesting post made by Jonathan Kinlay where he discusses the use of a Fourier Transform to discover a potentially optimum bar frequency to choose as an input to a trading system. I am ...
2
votes
1answer
147 views

Derive OIS rate from IRS rate and Fed Funds/Libor basis spread

For example I have 7Y interest rate swap rate and 7Y Fed funds/Libor basis spread. What is the step-by-step procedure to derive OIS rate from these two?
0
votes
1answer
76 views

Citable source: Why implied volatility over dollar prices

I am aware of the reasoning of quoting vanilla options as implied volatilities rather than dollar values. However, I would like to have a literature reference where this is explained, to quote / cite ...
2
votes
3answers
188 views

Analytical soluton to the Black-Scholes equation with a modified European Call Option

Please consider the following modified European Call Option where $ 0 < a \leq 1$. When $a = 1$ the modified European call option is reduced to the standard European call option. ...
1
vote
0answers
101 views

GARCH filtering and extreme value theory

We are evaluating a model for risk management based on extreme value theory using peaks over threshold and markov chain monte carlo methods. In doing this, we are firstly fitting a GARCH (we have ...
1
vote
0answers
40 views

Good broad review of network modeling for quant finance?

Trying to find some good review of agent-based models for quantitative finance, covering opinion dynamics, correlated behavior, etc. Are there any articles or books that cover major advances in these ...
0
votes
1answer
210 views

When measuring autocorrelation should you use log returns or prices?

Let's say you want to measure intra day autocorrelation from 9:30 am to 1pm using 5-minute prices should you calculate the autocorrelation using raw prices or log returns (i.e. diff(log(prices)))? Can ...
2
votes
1answer
71 views

How to measure the volatility of illiquid bond with no historical prices

The basket of corporate bonds that I am following barely traded after the issuance. Hence, there is no historical data to estimate the volatility. Can you suggest me a different approach to come up ...
1
vote
1answer
267 views

Weights Blowing up in PCA

I'm using daily settlement data to get yield levels for a couple of products. From this data I am doing PCA on a rolling collection of the yield levels. I have been using sci-kit learn's PCA function, ...
2
votes
1answer
96 views

Is there any application of power law to predict large returns?

Power law basically states that after a certain threshold, probability distribution $p(x)\sim c\,x^{a}$ where $x > x_{min}$, which is often the case for financial time series. It is also generally ...
5
votes
2answers
860 views

Change periodicity on Rblpapi

So Dirk Eddelbuettel, Whit Armstrong, and John Laing released Rblpapi to CRAN recently, and it is awesome. I'm having some difficulty understanding how the overrides work though, hopefully someone can ...
1
vote
3answers
116 views

When valuing a vanilla option on an index, should we take dividend into account?

When valuing a vanilla option on an index (eg FTSE 100), should we take index dividend yield into account? $$ c=Se^{-q\tau}N\left(d_1\right)-Ke^{-r\tau}N\left(d_2\right) $$ $$ d_1=\frac{\ln\left(\...
0
votes
3answers
107 views

Why Jumps in Option Pricing models?

The Bates model adds a Jump process to the Underlying. I understand this may represent observed time series more realistically, but why would one care about this in option pricing? The option price ...
4
votes
3answers
175 views

market neutral weights and cash values

I am looking at a market neutral portfolio and have a question which I think is probably pretty simple. So I can see the individual stock weights. ...
0
votes
1answer
125 views

Bond price in Ho-Lee Model

I know Ho-Lee model and want to extract the price at $t$, of a European call option with strike price $K$ and exercise date $T$, on an underlying $S$-bond, but I don't know what way should I choose: ...
2
votes
1answer
112 views

what are the criteria to select pairs?

I'm new to this forum, this is the first question I posted. I have many candidate pairs and I've used ADF test to make a first selection. There are more than 800 selected. The pairs are absolutely too ...
2
votes
1answer
400 views

Analytical solution for a modified Black-Scholes equation

Recently, a modified Black-Scholes equation was proposed (Zheng), namely Please consider the case when $$\sigma \left( S,t \right) =\sigma\,{S}^{k/2}$$ and with the European put option Using ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

ROC — Output from Calculating Stock Returns Producing Lower Numbers Than Actual

I tried this on stack exchange, but think it is a better question here. I am beginning user and I need help with an error / bad output I am getting when calculating returns (using ROC) on stock ...
4
votes
2answers
308 views

Does No arbitrage(NA) imply efficient markets (EMH)?

The EMH states that stocks are traded at its fair values. This means there is no arbitrage strategy in efficient markets. However, if the market is no arbitrage, can we conclude the market is ...
5
votes
2answers
487 views

How to calibrate a volatility surface using SVI

I've read the following paper by Gatheral and Jacquier and have several question regarding the calibration of a volatility surface in a arbitrage free way and some theoretical aspects. Let me first ...
2
votes
1answer
337 views

2-step estimation of DCC GARCH model in Python

Embedded in this thread are multiple questions. I'm currently im the process of implementing a DCC GARCH forecast model on quantopian (a python-powered trading platform). The two step consists of ...
4
votes
1answer
293 views

What does the cointegration coefficient represent in pairs trading when cointegrating log stock prices?

In Pairs Trading by Vidyamurthy, on page 83 (and throughout the book), the author describes an elementary example of trading with log prices. The long run equilibrium of the basic portfolio is given ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views

Effects of Subprime crisis on M&A?

I was wondering, besides the drastic drop (although not that much) in the number of deals and the total value of deals between 2007 and 2008, how did the Subprime crisis affect the M&A industry? ...
2
votes
2answers
444 views

Ideas about Stochastic volatility models

I am currently working on comparing different models for modelling the volatility and then pricing vanilla options (I use option prices on real stocks in order to calibrate my models and then I ...
1
vote
2answers
47 views

Expected Utility

We know that under certainty, any increasing monotone transformation of a utility function is also a utility function representing the same preferences. Under uncertainty, we must restrict this ...
4
votes
1answer
184 views

U.S. Rate Hike Prediction

In a recent ft.com video an analyst mentioned that markets postponed their Fed rate hike expectation from September to around November 2015 due to the CNY devaluation, based on the "shift" of some "...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Is the stock price process a martingale or a random walk in efficient markets?

What is the difference between RWH and EMH? In efficient market, the price will be fully reflected by available information. If there is no news, the price would be unchanged. If there is a news, ...
11
votes
1answer
367 views

What mathematical models did Harry Markopolos run to prove that Bernie Madoff 1% a month gain was a Ponzi scheme?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-man-who-figured-out-madoffs-scheme-27-02-2009/ Asked how long it took him to figure out something was wrong, Markopolos said, "It took me five minutes to know ...
2
votes
0answers
40 views

Future value of the debt under Merton model

The author Malz states the future value of the firm's debt under the Merton model can be found from: $$ D_{t} = D - \max(D - A_{t} , 0) $$ (where $D$ is the par value of the debt, $A_{t}$ is the ...
1
vote
0answers
92 views

GARCH estimation does not work, error in my returns?

Hey everyone and I hope that there are some smarter people out here that can help me out with my problem...: I have trouble with my implementation of a GARCH(1,1) model and I do not know how to move ...
1
vote
1answer
20 views

Where do Over-allotment (Greenshoe) option shares come from?

I'm just wondering, if following an IPO the share price goes up and the underwriter calls the option, where do those extra 15% shares come from? Does the company have to issue more stock to cover the ...
1
vote
1answer
102 views

Option writing optimal sell time

When selling options, e.g. a straddle I read often the optimal time for selling options is 30-40 days until expiration. For me intuitively the optimal time would be around one week until expiration ...
3
votes
1answer
84 views

Return.portfolio error from PerformanceAnalytics package

When using the PerformanceAnalytics package of R, I am getting an error from the Return.portfolio function whenever I ask it to rebalance_on any frequency. If the rebalance parameter is removed, the ...
4
votes
1answer
357 views

Measuring momentum as AR(1) process

I would like to measure the momentum in the price of a stock from the time the market opens until the time I trade each day. I want to use this momentum number in post-trade analysis (regression of ...
0
votes
1answer
435 views

Realized Volatility vs. Standard deviation of log returns

I am interested in calculating high frequency 5-minute intraday volatility. I am going to use the standard Realized volatility which is the square root of the sum of squared log returns. Given X is ...
0
votes
0answers
46 views

optimal look back period for cointegration analysis on daily prices

I'm running some cointegration tests on 2 stock pairs and was wondering, generally speaking, what would be the optimal look back period to test considering I am using daily prices and the average ...
0
votes
1answer
117 views

Why does increased stock borrow costs decrease a stock's forward price?

The author in this article -- http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=7294 -- states that an increase in stock borrowing costs decreases a stock's forward price: In the absence of manipulation, the ...
1
vote
0answers
55 views

Financial theory

Ok guys, I'm studying from Danthine and Donaldson - Intermediate Financial Theory. The book itself doesn't have a lot of worked examples, and I'm lacking the basics for understanding some concepts ...
1
vote
1answer
65 views

How can I compare two mutual funds' performance with a sparse set of data?

I want to compare the performance of two mutual funds. The only data I have is annual returns for the past 7 years. So I have 7 observations for Fund 1 and 7 observations for Fund 2. In addition, I ...
0
votes
0answers
84 views

Examples for the option model validation

When implementing a code for the new model, even if it provides sensible price, it is still a good idea to compare it against some benchmarks, even in the special case of constant volatility Black-...
5
votes
1answer
176 views

CNY Devaluation: Why EUR up, USD down?

The second unexpected devaluation of the Chinese currency CNY caused some turbulent market movements in currencies today. I was surprised that the EUR went to a 1-week high against the USD up by ...
1
vote
3answers
102 views

Is it realistic to assume that the current price of a stock takes into account the probability of it going up or down in the future?

I'm currently reading the following lecture notes: http://www1.maths.leeds.ac.uk/~jitse/math2515/lecture04.pdf On the second page, under the subsection titled "The Risk-Neutral World" it points out ...
3
votes
1answer
101 views

How to evaluate minimum-variance strategies against perfect information mvp

The minimum variance portfolio should minimize the standard deviation (variance) of the portfolio at time $t+1$. The covariance matrix $\Sigma_{t+1}$ needs to be estimated in order to form the mvp. ...
3
votes
0answers
68 views

Correct form for State Space Equation for Kalman Filter for DNS

In this paper: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf in eqns 3,5 the state eqn has the mean removed. $(z_t-\mu)=A(z_{t-1}-\mu) + \epsilon_t$ $y_t=C z_t + \delta_t$ ...
1
vote
3answers
212 views

Numerical Solution to BS PDE - Digital Option

Here is a relatively simple question about PDE's pricing. Assume that we are within the BS framework and moreover that interest rate is zero. The price $V(t,S_t)$ of the digital is known to be $\Phi(...
1
vote
1answer
293 views

predict next day's close price using hmm

I am reading this paper(Stock market forecasting using hidden Markov model: a new approach) and get confused about how they predict the next day's close price. Below is what the authors say about how ...
0
votes
1answer
51 views

Determining significant difference between to return series

I want to analyse whether two return series are different. I was told to run the following regression: ...
0
votes
0answers
44 views

Calculate Forward Rate under CIP - differs from qouted rates, why?

Hello everyone out there, I am quite new here, but hope you are helping me out, nevertheless. By assuming that we have CIP I want to calculate the 3M Forward rate for EURUSD. I use the known formula ...

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