2
votes
1answer
632 views

Predict Quadratic Trend in Time Series

Can anyone kindly point out if I made any mistakes in making predictions using quadratic regression model in time series? I called the predict() function with the appropriate data vector and model, ...
4
votes
0answers
123 views

Simple question concerning Jump process (Lévy process) model for a risky actif price process [closed]

Consider $X= \left( X_t \right)_{t\geq 0}$ is a Lévy process whose characteristic triplet is $\left( \gamma, \sigma ^2, \nu \right)$ and where its Lévy measure is $$ \nu \left( dx\right) = A ...
3
votes
1answer
194 views

Why are there different estimators for stock volatility? (realized variance, RAV, etc)

I am very confused about why different volatility estimators (RV, RAV, BPV, etc) exist. If the goal is to find the best estimator for stock volatility, and volatility is latent, how do I know which ...
5
votes
1answer
647 views

Derivation of Ito's Lemma

My question is rather intuitive than formal and circles around the derivation of Ito's Lemma. I have seen in a variety of textbooks that by applying Ito's Lemma, one can derive the exact solution of a ...
6
votes
1answer
264 views

Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
6
votes
4answers
600 views

What are the options for a mathematician to break into QF without working for a fund?

I have a degree in mathematics, and I've worked as a statistician and done some programming work. I'm very strong in my math/stats/programming background and have browsed some QF books, and I'm very ...
4
votes
2answers
522 views

Statistical significance of a pair trading strategy

How can I test the significance of a pair trading strategy, i.e. that the H0 is "The strategy has no predicting power". I was considering to use the technique in Evidence Based Technical Analysis ...
5
votes
2answers
777 views

Simulation of GBM

I have a question regarding the simulation of a GBM. I have found similar questions here but nothing which takes reference to my specific problem: Given a GBM of the form $dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + ...
0
votes
1answer
169 views

Numerical difficulties in fitting option prices

In [1], the authors state that "Although some studies apply the curve-fitting method directly to option prices, the severely nonlinear relationship between option price and strike price often leads to ...
1
vote
2answers
143 views

Liquidity in a market risk model based on historical simulation

I would like to model liquidity effects in my risk model which is based on historical simulation. I would like to develop a practical solution that still captures liquidity effects. Most probably I ...
4
votes
0answers
143 views

Estimation of ranks of log-returns via copula

I have successfully chosen and estimate a copula for the ranks of the log-returns of my actions. My question is, since I have worked with the ranks instead of directly the log-returns (in order to be ...
11
votes
2answers
835 views

Topological methods in finance

Recently a promising start-up (Ayasdi) has made headlines. They are a spin-off of the Applied and Computational Algebraic Topology group of Stanford University (ComTop). What they basically do is ...
5
votes
1answer
819 views

Robust Bayesian portfolio optimization in matlab?

I am working through this paper. I want to implement the robust Bayesian optimization (see pages 6 onward) in Matlab using fmincon. Here is a brief overview of my problem: Let $\alpha$ be the ...
3
votes
2answers
331 views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of OHLC over VWAP?

I would like to ask about maybe obvious thing for many people, but cannot find a good answer for it. In many, many places I see OHLC data along with OHLC analysis tools. As I deduce step by step in ...
4
votes
2answers
259 views

How to quickly sketch a second order greek profile for a vanilla position?

Assume that you are given an arbitrary payoff profile for European vanilla position (e.g. butterfly). How to make a back of the envelope sketch of a second order greek profile for it (i.e. plot ...
3
votes
1answer
276 views

How do you estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data?

What are some good ways to estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data (including full market depth)? Obviously, a naive approach is that you want the strategy's returns to exceed its ...
1
vote
1answer
167 views

Are Papers and Funds reporting Monthly drawdowns using daily granularity?

I'm curious as to how many academic studies and industry white papers are actually using daily data to report intramonth drawdowns; specifically, when the papers are often reporting monthly signals, ...
10
votes
1answer
341 views

A non parametric study of VaR with kernel density

I'm working in order to compare the calculation of the VaR between the methodology of copulas and kernel density, all this by using the software r. The process that I follow is: Obtain a sample ...
0
votes
1answer
498 views

Liquidity detection based strategy in HFT

This article contains the following statement. In terms of liquidity detection, traders intend to decipher whether there are large orders existing in a matching engine by sending out small ...
3
votes
4answers
1k views

What is the industry standard Quant Finance modeling library for F#

If it exists, has been agreed on, and F# programmers have used it extensively, I would like to know what is the industry standard Quant Finance library for F#. What typical finance scenario(s) have ...
2
votes
4answers
177 views

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset?

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset ? (or in the case of options $max(0,a(p-b)^{2}-c)$) I'm not very strict here but I only want to know ...
5
votes
1answer
345 views

Robust-Bayesian optimization in Markowitz framework

Suppose we are in the mean-variance optimization setting with a vector of returns $\alpha$ and a vector of portfolio weights $\omega$. In a robust setting, the returns are assumed to lie in some ...
11
votes
2answers
802 views

Copula models and the distribution of the sum of random variables without Monte Carlo

There is a vast literature on copula modelling. Using copulas I can describe the joint law of two (and more) random variables $X$ and $Y$, i.e. $F_{X,Y}(x,y)$. Very often in risk management (credit ...
4
votes
2answers
395 views

Is there a copula that can estimate negative tail dependence?

I have encountered numerous copula estimators that can estimate time-invariant and time-varying linear and non-linear correlations on the interval $[-1,1]$, and these estimators are fully consistent ...
7
votes
4answers
4k views

How to create charts in WPF finance applications?

How to create charts for market data in WPF? Are there any charting controls provided by microsoft or you need to use only third party controls? Which are the popular third party charting controls ...
3
votes
1answer
273 views

Overview of software companies in the industry

I am looking for overview references on software companies that develop applications in the following domains: asset and portfolio management risk management derivatives pricing trading quant ...
3
votes
2answers
4k views

What do the terms in-sample and out-of-sample estimates mean in MVO?

How do the in-sample estimates and out-of-sample estimates I so often hear authors refer to in emperical analysis of MVO differ?
5
votes
0answers
153 views

Basel CVA VaR with R/WWR

In Basel III the CVA VaR “is restricted to changes in the counterparties’ credit spreads and does not model the sensitivity of CVA to changes in other market factors, such as changes in the value of ...
4
votes
2answers
590 views

Typical coefficients uses in square-root model for market impact

The square-root model is widely used to model equity market impact. It assumes that volatility, traded volume, total volume, and a spread cost are the drivers of slippage. Jim Gatheral has an ...
3
votes
4answers
732 views

Other means of calibrating Heston models

I understand that the simplest way of calibrating a Heston model for volatility surface is to use Monte-Carlo to simulate the vol and stock price trajectories and then use the observed price to do a ...
4
votes
4answers
584 views

How to avoid having negative volatility when applying Heston model?

When applying the Heston model to generate the sample volatility surface, some of the volatility value will be negative. I am just wondering what do practioners normally do with these negative value. ...
6
votes
3answers
534 views

The Basis of Using Technical Indicators as Inputs

In the process of my research I very often come across academic papers regarding modelling and trading strategies that in one way or another incorporate some technical indicators. For example in some ...
4
votes
4answers
671 views

What's the algorithm behind Excel's ACCRINT?

This question was originally posted on Stackoverflow: As part of the Formula.js project, I'm trying to re-implement Excel's ACCRINT function (in JavaScript, but the language should not matter). I've ...
1
vote
2answers
580 views

Delta of a Down and Out Call

I came across some graphs depicting the delta of a down-and-out call. They show that, if the risk free rate of return is 0, the delta is constant at 1. However, if the rate of return is for example ...
4
votes
0answers
248 views

Analyzing the angle between vector of weights and vector of returns in mean-variance optimization

I am using the paper "A Sharper Angle on Optimization" by Golts and Jones (2009) as a basis for my (minor) masters thesis in mathematical finance. The paper focuses on the mean-variance analysis of ...
2
votes
2answers
889 views

How to calculate Vomma of Black Scholes model

This source (PDF) gives the closed-form for vomma (or volga, i.e. the second derivative of price w.r.t. volatility) of the Black Scholes option pricing model as: ...
3
votes
2answers
159 views

How to simulate one-minute bars data from one-day bars?

I need to generate one-minute bars out of one-day bars to test the performance of an algorithm (speed, memory usage, etc). I don't need them to resemble real data, but they should be consistent with ...
9
votes
7answers
911 views

When hiring a quant, how can I protect my IP?

I am a one-man operation, and would like to hire a quant for around 4 weeks or work. I am worried that the person I hire might copy my data or the indicators that I have him work on. What have ...
1
vote
3answers
234 views

Sharpe ratio in days with no open positions

Should I include or not the days a strategy has no open positions (thus no returns) in the Sharpe ratio calculation?
5
votes
0answers
329 views

Alternative ways to understand time-varying comovement between two time-series?

I have been looking into ways to better understand how the dependencies/correlations/etc between two time series can vary over time. I first thought about using a Kalman/particle filter over a ...
2
votes
2answers
914 views

Squared and Absolute Returns

I've always wondered why do one use squared or absolute returns to determine if volatility modeling is required for the return series? We understand that there are various tests for its ...
3
votes
1answer
359 views

Choice of epsilon for numerical calculation of vega in binomial option pricing model

I have a binomial option-pricing model (I don't think the details of how its implemented are relevant). However, when I go to calculate vega, I am essentially running the model a second time with new ...
3
votes
2answers
216 views

Comparison of Brownian Motion Expected Drawdown and simulated results

Can anyone tell me whether results as predicted by Brownian Motion for a given mean and std, match what you get by measuring actual drawdown from simulated results over a number of iterations?
0
votes
1answer
413 views

Selecting timeframe for time series analysis

In technical analysis, we may use confluence of direction for 3 timeframes to roughly gauge bias of market now. Similarly, if we use time series forecasting methods to predict(say daily data-whether ...
14
votes
2answers
2k views

How do we use option price models (like Black-Scholes Model) to make money in practice?

In quantitative finance, we know we have a lot of option price models such as geometric Brownian motion model (Black-Scholes models), stochastic volatility model (Heston), jump diffusion models and so ...
0
votes
1answer
111 views

Volatility Index Weighting Scheme

Among the several weighting schemes used for constructing volatility indices, which ones are the best for forecasting (realized) volatility? I've constructed a volatility index for emerging markets ...
1
vote
1answer
164 views

Pricing swaptions

What are the approaches available to price a swaption (either European or American style)? So far it seems Black method is the only one used. Thanks!
6
votes
5answers
3k views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of these approaches to deal with volatility surface?

I would like to know if someone could provide a summarized view of the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches on the volatility surface issues, such as: Local vol Stochastic Vol ...
2
votes
2answers
881 views

CTD and bond futures

I am reading a chapter on bond futures in Fabozzi's book. It states that without CF (conversion factor) the CTD (cheapest to deliver) would be the bond with the longest maturity and highest coupon. ...
0
votes
1answer
562 views

Which prediction market model is efficient and simple to use?

For a college project I'm tasked with implementing prediction market. Which model of it I'd better choose? I want something useful and simple enough for other people to quickly understand and use. ...

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