6
votes
1answer
94 views

Natural gas forward price modelling

I'm looking to learn about gas price modeling, in particular models of forward prices. I've studied "classical" mathematical finance, fixed income theory et cetera. I'm looking for good references ...
4
votes
5answers
966 views

Would this extremely simple strategy make money?

Find a diversified set of financial instruments by whatever method you like. Every day, buy each instrument at the open price. Historically, the open price is almost never the high. Sell immediately ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

how to find CVaR/AVaR for triangular fuzzy no

While going through different methods of risk measure i came across AVaR/CVaR, while i was calculating AVaR/CVaR in credibilistic environment using VaR, i got stuck in the calculations eg. For ...
-1
votes
0answers
23 views

Long Return - of a Long/Short Equity Fund

How do I calculate the return of only my long portfolio? The fund holds both long and short positions (and I can calculate total fund return) however, I need to figure out the return of only the long ...
2
votes
1answer
53 views

How to draw a binomial option tree graph?

I am writing a paper and need to create a png or jpeg file for binomial option price tree. In the past I would have used the tikZ package in LaTeX, but that won't work in this case. So I want a ...
25
votes
11answers
10k views

Why does the minimum variance portfolio provide good returns?

I've been a researching minimum variance portfolios (from this link) and find that by building MVPs adding constraints on portfolio weights and a few other tweaks to the methods outlined I get ...
2
votes
2answers
179 views

Valuation of barrier options in Jump diffusion model

I am trying to evaluate the value of a Barrier option using Monte carlo method. The stock follows a jump diffusion model. I am using the method described in Metwally and Atiya. The authors describe ...
2
votes
1answer
136 views

Johansen Cointegration Test

I just performed a Johansen Co-integration test on two stocks. The results I get are: ans = r0 r1 t1 true false I am using Matlab. Can ...
3
votes
3answers
287 views

Measuring historical earnings surprises, their frequency and severity

This is my first post to Quantitative Finance, so I hope my question is formatted the right way. I am starting to research the effects of earnings surprises on certain equity indices. Is there a ...
3
votes
3answers
122 views

Convergence of GBM mean after simulation?

As a follow up of my previous question, I am now simulating the GBM step by step for $n$ steps. I am using the following implementation for the simulation: $$S_{t+1} = S_t \exp \left[ ...
3
votes
1answer
103 views

What is wrong in this GBM simulation?

I am trying to generate a few samples of GBM using the following very simple MATLAB code: ...
0
votes
2answers
75 views

What would be a concise method to learn Monte Carlo methods?

Is there a concise way of learning the core Monte Carlo Methods from resources available online? This leads to my next question which is what are the core ideas to learn in Monte Carlo methods?
0
votes
2answers
62 views

What is the required Risk/ Reward ratio in Forex? [closed]

It is usually taught in forex training courses that the risk:reward ratio should be 1:2. My question is: why is it 1:2 but not other ratio? Also, I am new to forex trading. To what level of technical ...
2
votes
1answer
220 views

Closed form european option prices for a variance gamma process with a randomly distributed drift, volatility, and variance rate

Does an option pricing model with a closed form European option price exist that takes into account randomly distributed drift, volatility, and variance rate? I prefer a modification to the variance ...
0
votes
1answer
114 views

News on ETF sector performance

I am interested to find historical news (if any) associated with intraday volatility burst in a particular ETFs like ishares IYF (Financials). So say that between 12:00 - 12:10pm, the ETF IYF's stock ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Cross-Currency Inflation-Linked Swap

I am trying to find any references to cross-currency inflation-linked swaps. Have anyone encountered them and can describe how they work and how they differ from standard year on year inflation swaps? ...
2
votes
0answers
27 views

How can I break down the change in value for an inflation-linked bond

I am trying to decompose the change in value of an inflation-linked bond into two constituent parts: 1) That due to changing nominal rates on the issuer's non-linked bonds 2) That due to changing ...
1
vote
1answer
127 views

Bond Portfolio Immunization - Duration Matching

**Question is at the bottom** Suppose you have a portfolio of bonds A, B, and C with the following characteristics: (the "Frequency" column is the # of coupon pmts per year and also the # of ...
1
vote
1answer
53 views

What do “Exposure Bounds” mean in Portfolio Optimization?

I've just started reading up on Portfolio Optimization models and have come across the use of exposure bounds to mitigate the sensitivity of the optimized model solution, owing to parameter estimation ...
3
votes
2answers
121 views

Cross-sectional volatility vs temporal volatility

Volatility is usually defined as the standard deviation of returns, but sometimes it is calculated as the standard deviation of cross-sectional return divided by the square root of time, where other ...
4
votes
4answers
224 views

What kind of front end/ gui is used with trading applications?

I was wondering what kind of front end is used for trading applications. Coming from a quant background, I was always only concerned with research and back end of the application but am at a total ...
0
votes
1answer
66 views

Choosing broker to run with Zipline

Which brokers offer Python integration/API? Which brokers offer R integration? I'm starting on trading, and I want to learn about algorithm trading. So I would like to know what brokers offers these ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Where can I find a guide to implement the FAST protocol from scratch having already a FIX implementation ready?

I need to implement a FAST engine from scratch without using any open source or commercial FAST implementations. The FAST spec does not help much so I am not sure from where to start. Have anyone done ...
0
votes
1answer
139 views

Empirical copula

I am trying to find the empirical copula linking two random variables $X$ and $Y$. I have some data available but it's limited with respect to the variable $Y$ and I am not convinced it's enough data ...
1
vote
0answers
40 views

Rule of Thumb for minimum length of time series for AR(1) estimation

I have a data set of 350 points, I want to estimate the lag 1 auto correlation for different sub-sets of the data. More precisely I want to take non overlapping windows of length 1,2,3....n and ...
3
votes
1answer
50 views

Copula- AR simulation

I am estimating different copulas for bond factors that i also fit AR(1) models on. Now i would like to test and compare durations and VaRs with my model vs empiric. But how can i simulate AR(1) ...
2
votes
0answers
48 views

Pricing Callable Floating Rate Note

I have a question concerning pricing of a callable floating rate note (FRN). I have not found a lot of literature concerning callable FRNs (although a lot for callable bonds). With my understanding, ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

How to normalize stock data

Please advise how can i normalize stock prices. Recently, I've been using such formulas: Log prices = Ln(Close(t)) Close(t)-Mean (Close(t)-Mean)/(StdDev) Ln(Close(t))-Mean Is there any other ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Intensity Function of Stochastic Processes

I'm fitting some financial data to a model based on a stochastic process and evaluating the fit of it by looking at the compensator. However, I cannot understand well what does it mean to take the ...
0
votes
0answers
8 views

What happens if someone destroy money? [migrated]

I am sorry if i am posting my question in wrong place but, i just want to know what happens to the economy of a country if someone burns or destroy money? I know it increases every unit price of money ...
1
vote
1answer
40 views

Sovereign Credit Rating

I am working on the determinants of sovereign credit rating. I am looking for the historical rating dataset for eurozone countries. Does anyone know any source?
2
votes
2answers
360 views

Volatility of a rolling window strategy

What methods can be applied to determine the volatility of strategy using a rolling window? Using normal standard deviation would bias the results as the returns will be highly correlated. Although, ...
5
votes
3answers
163 views

Option on a dice game

I am sligtly confused by this problem, although it should not be difficult. Let us roll a sigle dice. If the dice shows $n$, I receive $n$ dollars. I can buy an option to roll the die again. What is ...
3
votes
2answers
723 views

What continous adjustment methods are firms using for futures backtesting?

There are several methods available between data vendors and associated software programs to adjust futures contract data for historical simulations. Some of the methods are: 1) Back or forward ...
1
vote
2answers
92 views

Intuition behind interest rate models

I am modelling the 3M yield of US Treasuries using an ARMA/ GARCH approach. Most interest rate models (e.g. Vasicek) describe the process as follows: $r_{t}-r_{t-1} = some ARMA+ \epsilon_t $ ...
2
votes
2answers
186 views

Pricing an american style option on a bond future

what is the good way to pricing american option on bond future? From bonk fixed income securities 3rd by Tuckman, I understand how to pricing European option on bond future, but I still have no clue ...
12
votes
5answers
2k views

Applications of Fourier theory in trading

What are fashionable applications of Fourier analysis in trading? I have heard vague ideas of applications in High Frequency Trading but can somebody provide an example, maybe a reference? Just for ...
4
votes
1answer
184 views

When Fed stops QE, Treasury Futures will go down in price, so… LEAP Puts are a good idea?

I think: when Fed stops QE (Quantitative Easing), Treasury Futures prices will go down. Question 1: Am I right? So... buying LEAP Puts (in Treasury Futures) would be a good idea. Question 2: Am I ...
2
votes
1answer
64 views

Meaning of w in SDE

I'm missing meaning of $w$ in typical SDE like $dX_t(w) = f_t(X_t(w)) + \sigma(X_t(w))dW_t$, in context of $w \in F_{xxx}$. Does it mean that both $w$ is one of events that could happen before ...
1
vote
1answer
194 views

Markit PMI vs ISM PMI

What is the difference between the Markit Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI? The monthly number differs a lot, my understanding is that they are trying to indicate the same thing.
4
votes
2answers
290 views

What is a cubature scheme?

Ideally an intuitive explanation with an example, please.
0
votes
2answers
99 views

Time series analysis in Java

I'm looking for a library to do some time series analysis in Java but I can't find anything suitable. I've found plenty of libraries such as Math3 of JSAT but there's much I can you for my problem. As ...
2
votes
2answers
125 views

What is the reasoning to derive this financial model called the Vasicek Model?

The model specifies that the instantaneous interest rate follows the stochastic differential equation $$\mathrm{d}r_t = a(b-r_t)\: \mathrm{d}t + \sigma \: \mathrm{d}W_t$$ where $W_{t}$ is a Wiener ...
4
votes
1answer
93 views

Explicit solution SDE

I have the following SDE: $$dY_{t}=A\left(\frac{W_{t}^{1}}{\sqrt{t}},\frac{Y_{t}}{\sqrt{t}}\right)dW_{t}^{1}+B\left(\frac{W_{t}^{1}}{\sqrt{t}},\frac{Y_{t}}{\sqrt{t}}\right)dW_{t}^{2}$$ where ...
6
votes
2answers
207 views

How to get an analytic result for option price based on this model?

I defined such a model for stock price (1).... $$dS = \mu\ S\ dt + \sigma\ S\ dW + \rho\ S(dH - \mu) $$ , where $H$ is a so-called "resettable poisson process" defined as (2).... $$dH(t) = ...
2
votes
1answer
50 views

How much correlation between alpha and forward returns can be considered good

There are many way to quantify the quality of an $\alpha$ (prediction of the future return of a security). I heard/do many things, most of them are equivalent to correlation. Typically ...
2
votes
2answers
112 views

What is the Swap Curve?

What is the so-called Swap Curve, and how does it relate to the Zero Curve (or spot yield curve)? Does it only refer to a curve of swap rates versus maturities found in the market? Or is it a swap ...
4
votes
0answers
279 views

Rate Distortion Minimization in a Python Clustering Algorithm

I'm attempting to solve for $\hat{k}$ clusters, such that the rate distortion is minimized, as described here, however, the answers that I am getting from my algorithm are not following the "Jump" ...
0
votes
1answer
41 views

Conversion factor for bonds

Hull defines the conversion factor for a bond as the "quoted price the bond would have per dollar of principal on the first day of the delivery month on the assumption that the interest rate for all ...
4
votes
3answers
98 views

How does US banks ensure that other country's banks aren't counterfeiting USD?

I have had this question for a long time. For example, if I wire 50M USD from China to the US, does the Chinese bank physically deliver 50M USD cash to the US bank? or is it just changing a number in ...

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