# All Questions

117 views

### Intermarket analysis - related time series?

I'm about to embark on training a neural network on daily forex data, with a view to obtaining a predictive network. I'm also interested in using data other than the forex currency pair data itself, ...
71 views

### How does this follow from the separating hyperplane theorem?

This is from Pliskas book in mathematical finance. I do not know what was best to write the question so I included the pages from the book. He has not written what form of the separating hyperplane ...
115 views

### How to develop your own interest rate model?

How can you develop your own interest rate model? What must be take cautiously before making one? Also what is the regulation that one mustfollow? Also what is some common properties that models ...
1k views

### Pairs trading: Question on non-negative profits, size of the positions and trading signals

I'm trying to backtest Pairs Trading but have become a bit confused on the different methods of selecting pairs, how to look for trading signals and what size of the positions to take in the assets. ...
58 views

### List of dates at which the NYSE was closed from 2005 to 2014?

I'm doing research on historical price movements on the New York Stock Exchange. Because the NYSE is closed on weekends, on holidays, and sometimes because of special events, special care needs to be ...
67 views

### Portfolio Optimization - n risky assets

I'm currently implementing a CAPM model in Excel: A portfolio of n risky assets when n=6 (in this case) A riskless borrowing rate of 8% and riskless lending rate of 3% I'm given the expected return ...
47 views

### is there an accepted method for quantifying risk of inaccuracy of nascent trm systems?

Have a somewhat meta question here. I am part of a trading risk management implementation project. I also manage day to day risk reporting to management and the trading desks. Our implementation was ...
213 views

### Pricing options under restricted domain

How would I price an option when the underlying security is unable to trade above a certain price? I assumed this would be as simple as restricting the limits of integration of the PDF to B (the ...
70 views

### forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate

Question about forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate.Some definitions $P(a,b)$ a zero coupond price at time $a$ and maturity $b$ $L(a,b)$ simply compounded spot interest rate set at ...
158 views

### M&A hedging an equity portfolio against an index

Quick Note This question was already posted under the userID user8170. Reason being I could not access my account. Now I am able to login to my account I am reposting the question here and will ...
235 views

### selecting test data for neural networks

I have been working on a neural network based on certain technical indicators. As people familiar with neural networks would know after developing a hypothesis, the developer is also supposed to ...
151 views

### How to price a Swing Option?

I'm working in the commodity market and I've to price Swing Options with MATLAB, preferably with finite element. Has anyone already priced these kind of derivatives? I'm thinking about using the ...
37 views

### Methods for “prompt month equivalent” exposure in commodities forwards/futures markets

It is common in commodities markets to hold many positions, both long and short, across a range of contract months beginning in the prompt month (today, September) to five or more years out. In ...
30 views

### multi factor equity model exposures not as expected

I'm researching an equity multi factor model. It contains three factors, say A, B & C. The factors are weighted as such, ...
4k views

### Using linear regression on (lagged) returns of one stock to predict returns of another

Suppose I want to build a linear regression to see if returns of one stock can predict returns of another. For example, let's say I want to see if the VIX return on day X is predictive of the S&P ...
56 views

### hedging with a 3 month fx forward every month

I think this is a bit odd question. Let us say I want to hedge my fx exposure every month but using 3 month forwards . How can I do that ? Is it not easy just to use 1 month forwards ? I recalculate ...
31 views

### Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
381 views

### Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
57 views

### Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
66 views

### Cholesky Decomposition on Correlation Matrix for Correlated Asset Paths

I found a matlab example for modelling correlated asset paths: http://www.goddardconsulting.ca/matlab-monte-carlo-assetpaths-corr.html In this model the author uses the matlab code chol() in order to ...
98 views

### How is the price of a bond actually determined?

How the price of a bond is actually determined? Is it the supply-demand that determines the price first and then the YTM is calculated on the back of this for that bond. Or is it that the changes to ...
134 views

### Volatility of Futures

Apparently: Under a constant interest rate, the futures price is given by a deterministic time function times the asset price (I think I understand this). This means that the volatility of the ...
70 views

### What is the effect of dividend yield being greater than the risk-free rate to American options pricing?

Even though dividends are discrete, literature often makes the assumption of continuous dividends (mostly in the case of indices but the individual stocks as well). The dividend yield denoted by q is ...
50 views

### Approximation of different volatilities

Suppose I model the forward swap rate lognormal $$dS_t = \sigma_{ln}S_tdW_t$$ On the other hand we could model it simply by a normal assumption: $$dS_t = \sigma_{n}dW_t$$ I would like to know if ...
2k views

### How to design a custom equity backtester?

I was thinking about writing my own backtester and I realize I have to make some assumptions. So I was hoping I could post what I am planning on doing and hopefully some of you can give me some ideas ...
71 views

### How can theta be so large on this option?

The AAPL Sep 95 put currently has a theta of -.21. The put midpoint is .84. 84/21 = 4 days. However, the put has nearly a month before expiration, at which time it will be zero. Not 4 days from ...
28 views

### Stock Price Evolution Equation Clarifications [closed]

What is the dimension of Δt? Is it second [s]? What are the expected return and the expected volatility? How can I calculate them for any given stock? Should I use the return and volatility values for ...
90 views

### Probability of stock closing over a certain price

A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.02. Suppose that yesterday's closing price was 100 and today the market goes up by 1%. What's the probability of today's closing price ...
57 views

### ADR vs Foriegn Stock Price Arbitraguers

So I am sure you all know about the whole Argentina default that has been in the papers lately, no need to delve into it. This so called "technical" default has lead some interesting investment ...
173 views

### Is it possible to model general wrong way risk via concentration risk?

General wrong way risk (GWWR) is defined as due to a positive correlation between the level of exposure and the default probability of the counterparty, due to general market factors. (Specific wrong ...
75 views

### what is General IB2 Restriction in Basel II credit risk model

I was reading Basel II wiki page, it says: The first pillar The first pillar deals with maintenance of regulatory capital calculated for three major components of risk that a bank faces: ...
58 views

### Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
88 views

### one-step-ahead Stochastic Volatility for 5-minute VWAP prices

I'm trying to run an SV model against prices of Euro/USD. For those not familiar with SV, its a volatility model in which each point gets its own volatility parameter $h_t$ with 3 main parameters that ...
57 views

### Explain drop in Correlation between two time series in consecutive periods

I have a time series for a security list with 2 parameters calculated for each time period. For example, for a stock XYZ, I have Param1 and Param2 calculated over various time periods stacked against ...
158 views

### what is a typical way forex brokerages can provide cheap leverage for their customers?

I'm not very well read in the area of high finance but I'm curious how forex brokerages are able to provide the backing for leverage that they can provide to customers. Is it possible to do this ...
35 views

### Impact of NZD mid-day EST Roll forward

Was taking a look at an NZD spot deal that was traded on a Friday for value the following Tuesday (t+2). Somehow this trade became classified as a forward by our back office systems (dealer says they ...
32 views

### what kind of test for volatility and where find the data

I am working on a model for stochastic volatility. In short, the model try to capture that the volatility goes up suddenly after a shock (war, policy, financial events, etc) and then goes down slowly, ...
43 views

### CVA formula proof

I'm struggling to prove the CVA formula in this paper. Equation (3) is the result of computing the expectation of formula (1). Could you please show me how to prove that?
164 views

### Why does regression capture differences in volatility?

I read the following statement in the book python for data analysis, chapter 11, and I was wondering if someone could give me intuition about why regression has this effect? The purpose of the ...
338 views

### Robust Returns-Based Style Analysis

Sharpe's Return-Based Style Analysis is an interesting theory but flawed in practice when working with long-short funds or funds that are changing strategies over shorter periods of time due to the ...
22 views

### A question about how to design Option

There is a question about the construction of an option Manufacture and option from plain vanillas that makes money in case of low volatility and does not lose too much in the opposite scenario. ...
32 views

### Testing for the presence of a positive or negative gamma effect

I am currently analyzing a statistic that I believe will have the effect of hedgers having a positive or negative gamma position in certain stocks. In the case where I believe hedgers have positive ...
124 views

### How to work out weights for a portfolio based on an inverse ratio with positive and negative values?

I am trying to work out how to determine weights for the assets in order to form a portfolio. The ratio I am using is EV/EBIT, hence the smaller the better. The problem is I don't know how to handle ...
33k views

### How can I go about applying machine learning algorithms to stock markets?

I am not very sure, if this question fits in here. I have recently begun, reading and learning about machine learning. Can someone throw some light onto how to go about it or rather can anyone share ...
94 views

### How can I calculate Fama-French betas for a particular stock?

For a particular stock, what's the simplest way to calculate betas for the Fama-French factors SMB and HML?
A regular affine process is defined to have the generator $Af(x) = \sum_{k,l=1}^d(a_{kl}+\langle a_{I,kl},y\rangle)\frac{\partial^2f(x)}{\partial x_k\partial x_l}+\langle b+\beta x,\nabla f(x)\rangle ... 1answer 80 views ### factor models and using cross section regression I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ... 2answers 97 views ### Logic behind Gordon Growth Model in a DCF analysis? Sorry, I wanted to ask this on the finance/money forum, but they don't support LaTeX there. Let's say we are valuing a company using the DCF methodology with a 5-year projection period. We project ... 1answer 58 views ### Discounted risky asset stochastic process problem$S_t$is the random variable representing the risky asset price at time$t$. M_t is the riskless asset. They are governed by the equations$\frac{dS_t}{dt}=\mu dt + \sigma dZ_t$and$dM_t = rM_t ...
If we have the density function $$f_{Y}(y,t)=\frac{1}{y \sqrt {2\pi\sigma^2t}}exp(-\frac{(ln \ y - \mu t)^2}{2\sigma^2t})$$ Then the mean of $Y(t)=e^{X(t)}$ conditional on $Y(0)=y_0$ is found to be ...