# All Questions

130 views

### Testing Significance of Correlation

Lets say I have the returns of two stocks(stock1 and stock2). Now without running a regression, I lag one of the variables, calculate the correlation between the two stocks and repeat this process as ...
210 views

### Software for backtesting outside strategies (CSV transaction upload)

I've developed some software which generates sets of trades, and I'd like to backtest those trades. My software currently outputs a CSV file with details of each trade: ...
114 views

### Regression with Lagged variables

I am new to regression analysis. Let's say initially I have a linear regression x = alag(x1) + blag(x2) + clag(x3) -- eq 1 I want to predict the price x based on the the price of x from previous ...
163 views

### Stochastic modeling of stock price process

Apart from the model of Geometric Brownian motion is there any other "widely accepted" stochastic model to characterize the dynamics of a stock price process?
955 views

### Why does the adjusted closing price take into account dividends?

I'm trying to get an intuition as to why the adjusted closing price includes a dividend adjustment: $$1 - \frac{dividend}{close}$$ I understand why the adjusted closing ...
161 views

### How does the number of free dimensions of a model affect its required size of sample?

Adding more variables to a model usually increases its accuracy. However, without adequate analysis it could also lead to curve fitting. Another question (How much data is needed to validate a ...
100 views

### OTC Equity Options' Dynamics

This only applies to options that do not have marketable equivalents since margin can be marked to them. I've never been able to find this on my goog. How is margin typically calculated for OTC ...
93 views

### monthly contract volume required for penny increments?

Have the exchanges disclosed their criteria? Does anyone have a best guess based upon observations of volume (however you wish to define it)? Please no qualitative answers.
87 views

### changes in open interest vs changes in underlying volume

Has a relationship been noted? Mostly, I'd like to know if the open interest increases on an underlying, does the underlying usually see increased trading? My guess would be "yes" since MMs can ...
91 views

### Regression extensions

I'm trying to find extensions for my regression and obviously would like to use PE, BV and CFO. But I've got monthly data, while all company's fundamentals are semi-annually... Can I deal with it ...
332 views

In high frequency and low latency trading, decisions are done on the spot by servers colocated in stock exchanges. This implies that those servers have immediate access to the information they need to ...
143 views

### High-Frequency Traders and Front Running: What order types are they using? [closed]

I often hear in the news that High-Frequency Traders can front-run incoming trades because they are faster at acquiring information and to execute trades. I also read that speed is only a necessary ...
189 views

### Using variance ratios to test for mean reversion

Can you use the variance ratio test to determine whether or not a time series is mean reverting? I'm using the Lo.Mac function in the ...
38 views

### Need historical option data for my final graduation project [duplicate]

I am a student doing my final graduation project on uncertainty quantification applied to option pricing.To validate my work I need historical european option data.So I wonder if there is someone here ...
219 views

### Stochastic modelling of derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are common stochastic ...
4k views

### What broker/feed/APIsetup allows for recording the most accurate data (cheaply)?

I'm currently using IB's Java API and getting feeds through them. However the real-time feed is updated only every 250ms and the historical feed only every second. I'm primarily looking for ES data ...
2k views

Everyone seems to agree that the option prices predicted by the Black-Merton-Scholes model are inconsistent with what is observed in reality. Still, many people rely on the model by using "the wrong ...
105 views

### Testing Black Scholes Analytical Options Pricer

I've written some code to calculate European option prices using the Black-Scholes analytical method. Can somebody recommend a good way to test that code? I have looked at option pricers online like ...
227 views

### Data Synchronization

I'm working on market trends. I have daily prices for 33 assets from different markets. I was wondering if there is a way to cancel the effects of different opening/closing times. I have been told ...
106 views

### Why do long-term equity return forecast models use dependent observations?

I've been reading up on different models used to forecast the equity risk premium, and I've seen a couple of papers that had questionable methods. For example, this paper by Javier Estrada goes into ...
46 views

### Risk factors for derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are the main risk ...
2k views

### How GARCH/ARCH models are useful to check the volatility?

Below a R code wrote by the moderator @richardh (whom I want to thank again) about ARCH/GARCH models. ...
144 views

### Does the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have stationary variance?

I know that the long run variance of the standard OU process is $\lim_{s\rightarrow \infty}\mbox{Var}(P_{t+s}|P_t) = \frac{\sigma^2}{2\theta}$ I'm using the geometric version of the process. I ...
796 views

### From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
87 views

### Assessing Forcasting with Correlated Residuals

Trying to use a linear regression model to forcast the CPI. I noticed that when I took a moving average of the residuals, though homsokedatisc and nonautocorrelated(ie they squiggle up&down with ...
140 views

### YTM and current yield

Which of the following statements is correct? a. If a bond’s yield to maturity exceeds its coupon rate, the bond’s current yield must also exceed its coupon rate. b. If a bond’s yield to maturity ...
99 views

### Portfolio risk-return when assets have limited and inconsistent historical data / time series?

Lets say we have "today's" snapshot of asset allocation and need to determine the 6mo, 1 yr and 5 yr risk and returns of this portfolio. If the time series for every asset is very long, longer than ...
277 views

### What is the instantaneous P&L of a Variance Swap?

What is the instantaneous P&L of a variance swap. Is it $(\sigma^{2}_{t}-\sigma^{2}_{implied})dt$?
737 views

### What really drives option implied volatility?

A common and oft repeated belief regarding options volatility is that implied volatility increases due to people bidding up a contract, usually related to anticipation of the outcome of an expected ...
213 views

### How to reactivate a risk mangement rule in an automated process

If some conditions are met (stop loss, trailing stop, take profit...) we will close ours positions (sell/buy) to avoid having more loss or to ensure profit. In an automatic trading system, it is easy ...
62 views

### What is the meaning of the discounted process defined from the interest rate process?

Assume a money market has interest rate process $R(t)$. In Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance II, formula (5.2.17) on page 215 defines the discounted process as  D(t) = e^{-\int_0^t R(s) ds}. ...
112 views

### Risk neutral valuation independent of $Q$?

This question is bothering me now for a while. Suppose given is a random payoff $f\in L^0(\mathcal{F}_T)$ at time $T$, where $L^0(\mathcal{F}_T)$ denotes the space of all $\mathcal{F}_T$-measurable ...
141 views

### Where can I get historical ticker change database?

There's 30 days worth of data at http://www.otcmarkets.com/marketActivity/symbol-changes - but I'm really looking for the past 10 years, or 5 years if only that is possible. Any dice? The closest ...
205 views

### Does implied vol vary for calls vs puts?

Volatility skew tells us that options with the same maturity at different strikes can have different implied vol. However, can a corresponding call and put for the same strike and maturity have ...
153 views

141 views

### How to justify a model that could not predict external factors?

I'm building some models, for example, Bad Loan (NPL) rate. It's based on historical simulation method -- basically it's saying the future behavior could be predicted by history data. However, this ...
34 views

I'm looking to buy historical intraday 1 or 5 minute bars of the US stocks going back as far as possible (up to 10 years). Preferably: OHLC bid+ask+trade prices and with volume (But trade prices at 5 ...
109 views

### Credit risk data

I am trying to get historical data for credit risk and do some analysis on it as a school project. I thought CDX index might be a good proxy for typical credit risk data, but I am not sure. Typically ...