1
vote
0answers
65 views

robust regions in grid search

I have a strategy f that takes parameters x,y (for x,y taking values in integer ranges). I get two grids (of returns and volatility values) from computing f(xi,yi) for integer ranges x1 <= xi <= ...
1
vote
0answers
58 views

How to convert HJM model risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$ to real measure $\mathbb{P}$?

HJM model, $df(t,T) = \mu(t,T) dt + \xi (t, T)dW(t)$, is defined in risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$, according to Brigo's "Interest Rate Models" book. I wonder, how could I transform it to real ...
2
votes
0answers
49 views

Isn't a perfect economic system always in debt? [closed]

Let's say in a simple world, we have 3 persons, a banker, a businessman and a worker. Then we apply the current monetary system in this economy. So for the system to get started, we need a banker to ...
5
votes
1answer
91 views

Valuing a warrant on a warrant

How would you go about valuing a European warrant that entitles you to a) 1 share of a company and 2) 1 warrant on that same company?
2
votes
2answers
149 views

2 stocks, no shorting vs shorting. (concrete questions, mean-variance)

I'd appreciate help with the following questions. Suppose there are two stocks $A$ and $B$ with expected returns $E_A, E_B >0$ and volatilities $v_A, v_B >0$, respectively . Also, suppose ...
5
votes
2answers
160 views

The Definition(s) of Momentum

I am currently studying the Momentum strategy and its differences in results (returns) when we change the formula describing momentum. There are indeed no accurate formulas for implementing the ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views

Commodity prices on Yahoo finance [duplicate]

I tried looking for some decent way to get stock data for general commodities. I went looking on Yahoo Finance and found https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q?p=finance.yahoo.com&s=GCN14.CMX. But this ...
2
votes
1answer
98 views

Shorting 'pump and dumps' legal?

Ive seen my junk inbox overflowing recently with a few stocks being pushed extremely heavily via unsolicited emails from a variety of 'firms', my guess is that these are done by the same individual / ...
1
vote
1answer
125 views

Non-linear Dynamical Systems and Quantitave Finance

The vast majority of what I have read about quantitave finance is to do with option pricing and time series analysis for forecasting. However the economy as a whole behaves as a dynamic system with ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views

Calculate rate of return of a stock, if there is a buy transaction occurs during the middle of financial year

Currently, I'm implementing a feature of an open source project (https://github.com/yccheok/jstock/issues/7), which requires me to calculate the rate of return of a stock. Let's take the following ...
0
votes
3answers
115 views

Divergence between binomial pricing and monte carlo simulation for vanilla european call?

I notice a divergence in my own code, but it's evident even in public code: http://www.thalesians.com/finance/index.php/Knowledge_Base/Finance/Option_Pricing_in_Python_and_Simple_English Pricing a ...
-1
votes
1answer
49 views

Math basics of Equally-weighted Risk contributions

i'm writing my BA Thesis about "Equally-weighted Risk contributions". Can anyone recommend math books for further understanding of Risk contributions?
4
votes
3answers
107 views

Transaction Costs for Currency Pairs

I have been aggregating some tick data from Oanda's streaming API to try and get an idea of the relative cost and best time to trade different currency pairs. The idea was to plot the spread of the ...
1
vote
1answer
137 views

What is the intuition behind the fact that Modified duration = Macaulay Duration / (1+r)?

I understand the derivation of both:take dP/dR and divide by P which will give you both 1) modified duration OR 2) macaulay duration / (1+r) (notice the weighted average time built into the ...
1
vote
1answer
94 views

Does a delta hedged short option guarantee profit of extrinsic value at expiration?

If a trader shorts an option and dynamically delta hedges to ensure the delta is equal to 0 if that option expires out of the money does the trader profit that options extrinsic value at the time of ...
0
votes
2answers
32 views

Trading days or Calendar days for Compound Annual Growth Rate?

When calculating CAGR for intervals shorter than a year (or intervals that are longer than, but not integer years in length), should you use the 252 trading days or the 365.25 calendar days? The ...
2
votes
2answers
59 views

Ability of hedge funds to transform illiquid assets

In this discussion of a Citi paper, on the impact of collateral management and rising financing costs for hedge funds, there is a quote from Sandy Kaul's statement: Sandy Kaul, head of business ...
1
vote
2answers
63 views

Which is the correct definition of arbitrage?

Spin-off from here. In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage, which is correct? The first definition is for the single period ...
1
vote
2answers
242 views

Forward rates formulae

I am now working with forward rates and have somehow been asked to use an "intuitive" formula for forward rates. $$ \frac{F(0,s,T)}{F(0,t,T)} = \frac{F(s,s,T)}{F(s,t,T)} $$ I can understand the ...
2
votes
3answers
71 views

Inconsistent Definition of Arbitrage in Bjork?

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ what seems to be 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage: The first definition is for the single period Binomial model The ...
0
votes
2answers
149 views

Getting the next price of a GBM with reversion

Here is the "twin" question of Getting the next price of a GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) but for GBM with reversion As in that case, I'd like to write a formula for the next price, as function of: ...
0
votes
1answer
72 views

Getting the next price of a GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion)

I am writing a program that creates realizations of a GBM. Starting from an initial price, I get the following price with this formula: ...
0
votes
0answers
90 views

Does Implied Volatility always exist?

I am considering a simple Heston Model Market with one risky and one riskless asset. The dynamics of the riskless asset is simply $dB_t=r*B_t*dt$ The dynamics of the risky asset is as follows, $ ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

How to calculate the pre-tax cost of debt for a mix of bonds allotted to a company?

I need to calculate the effective interest rate a company X is paying on the total debt it has been loaned (to arrive at the Cost of Debt) for the FY 2011-12. Its long term borrowings are a mix of ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

Free stock split history data source?

Does anyone know of a reliable (free) source of historical stock split information? There's a YQL api for pulling down 'key stats' on a symbol but it only contains the LastSplitDate. Adjusted close ...
2
votes
3answers
102 views

What is the Most Efficient Way to Calculate the Internal Rate of Return IRR?

I have built a program that prices financial assets and it does this in part by calculating the IRR. The problem is that it does not run as quickly as I would like it to. I currently use the ...
2
votes
2answers
92 views

IP API Active X for Excel refresh rate

I have been working on the EXCEL DDE sample worksheet and works fine and now I would to upgrade to ActiveX instead of DDE as I heard it is more robust but I found the refresh rate of ActiveX is even ...
0
votes
2answers
107 views

How can I calculate the strike price or implied volatility from a given delta?

I have calculated the implied volatility for all strikes of a certain product (options on futures) and approximated the ATM volatility. My question is how can I figure out the implied volatility for a ...
0
votes
1answer
105 views

Mysterious disappearance of options from historical datasets

I am in the process of analyzing historical options data, and I keep finding options that mysteriously disappear before they are due to expire. For example: For the QQQ $69 Put, ...
1
vote
2answers
58 views

Counterparty risk tutorials

I want to learn about the latest methods used to measure credit risk, which I believe is same as counterparty risk. Can you please direct me some links for this. I have come across a few of them but ...
1
vote
2answers
56 views

How To Account For Inflation Over Historical Data

I believe inflation is greatly affecting my sample data, even when using percent-changes for movements. I have read this post, which recommends the formula ((Current-Base Year CPI) * Price) / ...
3
votes
0answers
159 views

Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy (Example in R)

In the paper Response to Paul A Samuelson letters and papers onthe Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy pages 5 and 6 Dr William T Ziemba, gives a praticle example on Kelly Growth. I’m trying to ...
2
votes
2answers
197 views

How Much Capital is Needed to Start an Arbitrage Strategy?

I'm trying to experiment with a simulated simple arbitrage strategy. I'm not doing this to actually invest, I'm just curious if the market is inefficient enough for this to be feasible. Every ...
3
votes
2answers
142 views

Using Fourier Transforms for stock option pricing with stochastic interest rates

Can Fourier transforms be used to derive the joint probability density function of stochastic interest rates and stock price Brownian motions of call options under stochastic interest rates? So lets ...
2
votes
4answers
291 views

Implementing A 50/50 Prediction Model Strategy

Reworded the question for clarity (see edits for original post): How can one knowingly foresee where a 50/50 prediction model will be profitable? For previous posts: I understand that if I have a ...
1
vote
2answers
88 views

Joint distribution from expectations

Given two random variables $X$ and $Y$ and let $K$ be a constant value. Assume the expectation $\mathbb{E}[X(Y-K)^{+}]$ is given for all possible values of $K\geq 0$. Is there a way to derive the ...
2
votes
1answer
69 views

How to distinguish total return and absolute return funds in the KIID

I hope this question is on-topic. It is not relally a quant question but it is a question that quants in risk management in asset management firms have to answer: In the KIID (key investor ...
1
vote
1answer
72 views

Plot Evolution of portfolio weights over time in R [closed]

Is there any function for plotting the evolution of portfolio weights over time in r?. I have a matrix of portfolio weights from an equal weighting strategy at rebalancing times and want to plot ...
1
vote
3answers
187 views

What are the unfair order execution/routing advantages HFT firms apparently have?

I originally thought that you have an orderbook per stock and orders would be filled on the time at which they arrive. Arrive first and you get the best price and the qty in the orderbook is reduced ...
0
votes
0answers
43 views

commodity futures pricing vs. underlying spot rates in volatile markets, at depth of book

Are futures contracts or their underlying spot rates, more or less efficient, at depth of market, with volatility? Say for example we have: 1 E7 (CME contract) = 62,500 euro Should the future or ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views

For Probability of Default in retail credit what is more popular logistic regression or GLM with Poisson distribution and why?

Trying to understand which regression model is more popular in retail credit card industry Logistic regression or GLM with Poisson distribution and why?
0
votes
1answer
44 views

Correlation of Dividend Yield Index/Stock

I need your experience and intuition about dividend yields. Indeed, I would to know if the dividend yield of and Index is correlated with the dividend yields of it's componenets separately? The ...
0
votes
1answer
40 views

Combining BHHH and Levenberg Marquardt

I already asked a question related to this here: How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation I know understand how Levenberg Marquardt (LM) can be applied to the objective ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Obtaining historical data of individual level predictions from prediction markets

I have been searching the internet but was unable to find data of the following form: prediction of events for which we already know the outcome (i.e. markets that have already closed) data for each ...
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Future spot price versus current forward price

Which are the two conditions necessary to claim that the future spot price will have as many chances to be above or below the current forward price?
0
votes
1answer
29 views

Common point between IR and Vol option pricing models?

What is the common point between pricing models on options on Interest Rates and options on Volatility?
2
votes
1answer
79 views

How do I prove that $\lim_{K\searrow0}\frac{P(K,T)}{K} = \mathbb P(S_T=0)$?

I am trying to prove that $$\lim_{K\searrow0}\frac{P(K,T)}{K} = \mathbb P(S_T=0)$$ where $P(K,T)$ denotes the put option price with maturity $T$ and strike $K$ for some stock $S$. Assuming interest ...
2
votes
1answer
86 views

How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation

In this paper on p315: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf They explain that they use Levenberg Marquardt (LM) (along with BHHH) to maximize the likelihood. However as I ...
1
vote
2answers
106 views

what is the actual point of vega on real option data

For a call option, we know that the vega is the derivative of the price wrt to the volatility. However the volatility, in that context, actually refers to the implied volatility of the specific call ...
3
votes
5answers
123 views

economic facts that causes the financial time series to be heavy tailed

When reading a tutorail on extreme value theory, I once meet the following claim ...

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