13
votes
4answers
3k views

How do you evaluate a covariance forecast?

Suppose you have two sources of covariance forecasts on a fixed set of $n$ assets, method A and method B (you can think of them as black box forecasts, from two vendors, say), which are known to be ...
13
votes
3answers
1k views

How to account for transaction costs in a simulated market environment?

I am simulating a market for my trading system. I have no ask-bid prices in my dataset and use adjusted close for both buy and sell price. To account for this I plan to use a relative transaction ...
13
votes
2answers
280 views

How reliable is Benford's Law in forecasting crises?

I was recently reading an article about how financial accounting has increasingly deviated from the ratios expected by Benford's Law. (Benford's Law and Decreasing Reliability). The author discusses ...
13
votes
3answers
1k views

How to encode trading strategies mathematically

If you have a bunch of different econometric data (e.g. indexes, FX, commodities, interest rates...) you can try to find a formula to see if there is any relationship in the data - e.g. to forecast ...
13
votes
3answers
1k views

Rate interpolation in Libor Market Model

Libor Market Model (LMM) models the interest rate market by simulating a set of simply compounded, non-overlapping Libor rates which reset and mature on predefined dates. How do I obtain from them a ...
13
votes
4answers
2k views

Quantitative Math required for Market-making?

I understand there is an awful lot of Quantitative Math required for statistical arbitrage/algorithmic trading. However, would someone "in the know" be able to tell me whether there is less ...
13
votes
4answers
4k views

Volatility pumping in practice

The fascinating thing about volatility pumping (or optimal growth portfolio, see e.g. here) is that here volatility is not the same as risk, rather it represents opportunity. Additionally it is a ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views

When should you build your own equity risk model?

Commercial risk models (e.g., Barra, Axioma, Barclays, Northfield) have evolved to a very high level of sophistication. However, all of these models attempt to solve a very broad set of problems. ...
13
votes
3answers
2k views

Role of skewness in portfolio optimization?

What is the role of skewness in portfolio optimization?
13
votes
2answers
4k views

How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk?

How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk? In what context would an analyst use these metrics?
13
votes
2answers
1k views

How to forecast expected volatility from high-frequency equity panel data?

I'm wading through the vast sea of literature on realized volatility estimation and expected volatility forecasting (see, e.g. Realized Volatility by Andersen and Benzoni, which cites 120 other ...
13
votes
3answers
5k views

Free market data (delayed or snapshot)

I know there are similar questions but I don't think there are any identical ones. Basically, I'm looking for one of these two things. Delayed market data feed. A tick by tick feed, but delayed by ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views

Is there a popular curve fitting formula of options skew vs strike price or vs Delta?

I was trying to build a options trading/optimization system. But it often gets more inaccurate as it scans through the far from ATM options because, you know, options skews. That is because I did ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views

Copula models and the distribution of the sum of random variables without Monte Carlo

There is a vast literature on copula modelling. Using copulas I can describe the joint law of two (and more) random variables $X$ and $Y$, i.e. $F_{X,Y}(x,y)$. Very often in risk management (credit ...
13
votes
3answers
1k views

How does one analyze diversification if stock prices follow a Cauchy distribution?

How does diversification actually lead to less variance in a portfolio? I'm looking for a formal reason why this is the case. There are a number of explanations I have been able to find, but they make ...
13
votes
1answer
358 views

What approaches are there for stress testing a portfolio?

Wikipedia lists three of them: Extreme event: hypothesize the portfolio's return given the recurrence of a historical event. Current positions and risk exposures are combined with the historical ...
13
votes
1answer
742 views

What techniques are used for testing order book implementations?

I am finishing the implementation of a limit order book for modeling NASDAQ. The order book works off of the ITCH feed. My question is what techniques are typically used for testing order books. I am ...
13
votes
1answer
2k views

What is a good topic on financial time series analysis for master thesis?

Can someone suggest a topic or some reasonably narrow area in financial time series analysis (e.g. statistical, machine learning, etc.) which can make a good topic for a master thesis? By 'good' I ...
13
votes
3answers
702 views

Discrete-time model: stock dynamics

I am working in the area of probability theory and for a case study I would like to make some calculations in finance. Since I am developing theory for the discrete time, I am interested in models for ...
13
votes
1answer
420 views

What should be considered when selecting a windowing function when smoothing a time series?

If one wants to smooth a time series using a window function such as Hanning, Hamming, Blackman etc. what are the considerations for favouring any one window over another?
13
votes
2answers
2k views

statistical arbitrage option overlay strategies / volatility trading

Here's an interesting trading puzzle that I would love to get the community's input on. Let's say there exists an alpha signal that does a good job of sorting equities expected excess returns over ...
12
votes
11answers
39k views

What is the difference between Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) and Z-spread?

I am preparing for the CFA level 2 exam, I got confused by the concept Z-spread and OAS. When a call option is added to a bond, since it is not favorable to the bond buyer, they would require more ...
12
votes
5answers
2k views

How to optimally allocate capital among trading strategies?

I'm trying to find an optimal way to allocate capital among trading strategies. "Quantitative Trading" by Ernie Chan claims on page 97 that the optimal fraction of capital to allocate to a given ...
12
votes
3answers
6k views

Control for bid/ask bounce in high-frequency trade data?

The bid-ask bounce is the bouncing of trade prices between the bid and ask sides of the market. It introduces a systematic bias to the data which can cause serious problems in analysis. What methods ...
12
votes
7answers
2k views

Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book.

Recently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer. After I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that ...
12
votes
4answers
1k views

Resources for finding scholarly research on topics in quantitative finance?

A friend and I have taken up an interest in quantitative finance, and we're pretty much starting from scratch—neither of us have backgrounds in finance, but rather electrical engineering and ...
12
votes
6answers
3k views

References for developing an automated trading system?

I am looking for references on the architecture of automated trading systems and the trading algorithms behind them. I am more interested in system development than analysis. A couple of books I ...
12
votes
8answers
9k views

Should I use an arithmetic or a geometric calculation for the Sharpe Ratio?

What are the advantages/disadvantages of using the arithmetic Sharpe Ratio vs the geometric Sharpe Ratio? Is one more correct? Or is one better in certain circumstances?
12
votes
5answers
10k views

What is the implied volatility skew?

I often hear people talking about the skew of the volatility surface, model, etc... but it appears to me that a clear standard definition is not unanimously in place among practitioners. So here is ...
12
votes
3answers
2k views

Why do expected return models and risk models use different factors?

This is a question responding to weekly topic challenge. I happen to see an interesting question from SYMMYS by Michael Kapler. I always approached expected return and risk modeling as separate ...
12
votes
3answers
1k views

How do strategies deal with corporate actions?

There are many corporate actions that will affect the stock price, like dividend, stock split and rights. Given a large series of historical price data, how do we adjust the data to filter out the ...
12
votes
2answers
775 views

Why is the ratio of Hi-Low range to Open-Close range close to 2?

I tried it in several symbols and timeframes with the same result: $$\frac {mean(HIGH-LOW)}{mean(|CLOSE-OPEN|)}$$ ...
12
votes
5answers
6k views

Using linear regression on (lagged) returns of one stock to predict returns of another

Suppose I want to build a linear regression to see if returns of one stock can predict returns of another. For example, let's say I want to see if the VIX return on day X is predictive of the S&P ...
12
votes
2answers
5k views

Why do we use GARCH(1,1) to predict volatility?

What makes GARCH(1,1) so prevalent in modeling especially in academia? What does this model has that is significantly better than the others?
12
votes
3answers
4k views

How do I find the most diversified portfolio, or least correlated subset, of stocks?

I have a trading system that chooses top 10 stocks in Nasdaq 100 ranked on relative strength and some other factors. However, I'd like to take positions in only 5 of these 10 stocks based on how ...
12
votes
4answers
9k views

Central Index Key (CIK) of all traded stocks

Is there a way by which I can get a list of CIK of all registered stocks at the SEC?
12
votes
3answers
7k views

R: How feasible is it to store — and work with — tick data in a database connected to R?

I'm looking to convert some tickdata .csv files into a database on a local disk and then use R to call the data and do my various analytics and modelling. What are some best practices / ...
12
votes
3answers
2k views

Is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) coherent?

When the risk is defined by a discrete random variable, is CVaR a coherent risk measure? I stick to the following definition of CVaR: $$ CVaR_\alpha(R) = \min_v \quad \left\{ v + \frac{1}{1-\alpha} ...
12
votes
6answers
2k views

How to generate a random price series with a specified range and correlation with an actual price?

I want to generate a mock price series. I want it to be within a certain range and have a defined correlation with the original price series. If I choose, say, oil, I want as many time series which ...
12
votes
4answers
8k views

How should I calculate the implied volatility of an American option in a real-time production environment?

There are many models available for calculating the implied volatility of an American option. The most popular method, employed by OptionMetrics and others, is probably the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model. ...
12
votes
3answers
2k views

Categories of systematic trading strategies?

What are the main categories of systematic trading strategies (e.g. momentum, mean reversion), as might be considered by an index or fund-of-fund analyst? Are there any common sub-strategies?
12
votes
4answers
2k views

Are two identical time series cointegrated?

I did cointegration test on two identical time series, and the result shows that they are not cointegrated, but intuitively, I think they are. Can anyone share some thoughts on this? Thanks!
12
votes
2answers
2k views

What are some quantitative approaches to value investment?

As a developer and statistician, I consider value investing to be a statistically sound investment strategy. I've read a few books on the area but I am still not clear on valuation measures. So I ...
12
votes
4answers
2k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...
12
votes
4answers
4k views

How to combine multiple trading algorithms?

Is it possible to combine different algorithms so as to improve trading performance? In particular, I have read that social media sentiment tracking, digital signal processing and neural networks all ...
12
votes
2answers
562 views

How credible is Knight pointing the finger at Rule 107C?

After the Knight Capital incident, I decided to read into the new Rule 107C that NYSE pushed-out August 1st for a one-year pilot. From what I've read, Knight claims that new code rolled out for this ...
12
votes
3answers
705 views

What is the most effective way of determining & measuring the level of HFT activity in a stock in (close to) real time?

On a security by security basis, I want to be able to quantify the level of HFT activity (and later institutional & retail activity). Is it higher than it normally is? How much so? What would you ...
12
votes
1answer
3k views

Skewness and Kurtosis under aggregation

Returns possess non-zero skewness and excess kurtosis. If these assets are temporally aggregated both will disappear due to the law of large numbers. To be exact, if we assume IID returns skewness ...
12
votes
2answers
612 views

Issues when considering a quantitative trading/finance firm

I have an upcoming quantitative trading interview (prop desk at a large bank), and I would like to have some good questions to ask about the group. However, I am changing fields from academia and I do ...
12
votes
3answers
837 views

Operating parameters of market makers?

I'd like to get a feel for the operating parameters of official market makers. I'm looking more for discerning characteristics, rather than exact numbers or an exhaustive list of each MM. Examples: ...

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