All Questions

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2answers
52 views

Impact of NZD mid-day EST Roll forward

Was taking a look at an NZD spot deal that was traded on a Friday for value the following Tuesday (t+2). Somehow this trade became classified as a forward by our back office systems (dealer says they ...
1
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1answer
122 views

Cost of Carry Bear Flattener

I was reading a report last week that “the carry on a 2s5s gilt curve flattener is negative to the tune of 10bp over 6 months” and I realised I have little understanding of this concept and ...
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1answer
37 views

Proper way to combine wavelet coefficients from multiple rounds of analysis

I am doing signal analysis for a time series and the assumption of signal is S = F + e Where S is the original signal, F is the frequency component and e is white noise (auto-regressive time series ...
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3answers
273 views

Is this arbitrage?

Assume the stockprice as in the Black-Scholes model (Geometric Brownian Motion): $$S_t=S_0e^{(\mu-\sigma^2/2)\cdot t+\sigma W_t}$$ Wouldn't there be an immediate arbitrage opportunity, to just buy ...
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2answers
175 views

Backtesting with Simulated Historical Data?

The trading strategies that are going to backtest well are the ones that pick the winners from the past. For example, if a trading strategy simply bought apple stock it would backtest extremely well. ...
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2answers
230 views

Correlation between S&P500 returns and 10y US Treasuries yields

I'd like to investigate the comovement of stock index returns with bond yields but I don't know which return's duration to use (1-year, 1-month or anything else) to get a better view of the ...
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1answer
69 views

CVA number used by Finance Team

What are different reasons, Finance Team will need CVA number for? Is there any specific regulatory reporting to be done?
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2answers
84 views

Non-Negativity of up-factor and down-factor in Binomial No-Arbitrage Pricing Model

Consider a stock which is trading at $S_0$ at time $t=0$ and is expected to be trading at price $uS_0$ or $dS_0$ at time t=1 where $u$ and $d$ are up-factor and down-factor. The theory says that to ...
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1answer
104 views

Selling an American call option early

I understand it is never optimal to exercise an American call option early. [1] [2] However, here are my two contradictory thoughts about selling an American call option early. Assumptions I can ...
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1answer
117 views

Company rank within an industry

I'm looking at the list of companies in the S&P 500 Pure Value Index. For each firm, I want to obtain the dividend yield industry percentile rank and the PEG ratio industry percentile rank. I've ...
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3answers
109 views

Arbitrage free implies complete market?

In Tomas Björk's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition It seems that to show that the model is complete, we must show that the claims are reachable. That is, we ...
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1answer
76 views

Prove that the binomial algorithm implies the arbitrage free price at t=0 of a T-claim

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ these propositions How does the first formula follow from from the algorithm? I get that $\Pi(0;X) = V_0(0)$, but I don't ...
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1answer
54 views

How to benchmark bonds?

I am trying to find for each european bond in my database a proper Benchmark to compare them with the Bloomberg benchmarks for bonds. What i have done so far is to extract a list of all government ...
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2answers
79 views

Which is the correct definition of arbitrage?

Spin-off from here. In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage, which is correct? The first definition is for the single period ...
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2answers
77 views

Counterparty risk tutorials

I want to learn about the latest methods used to measure credit risk, which I believe is same as counterparty risk. Can you please direct me some links for this. I have come across a few of them but ...
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2answers
89 views

Joint distribution from expectations

Given two random variables $X$ and $Y$ and let $K$ be a constant value. Assume the expectation $\mathbb{E}[X(Y-K)^{+}]$ is given for all possible values of $K\geq 0$. Is there a way to derive the ...
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1answer
120 views

In a Black-Scholes world, why must volatility be strictly increasing in time-to-expiration?

This question is from Rebonato's Volatility and Correlation 2nd Edition. Rebonato states that if $\sigma_T^2T$ is not strictly increasing, it would be simple to set up an arbitrage. Unfortunately ...
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1answer
92 views

forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate

Question about forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate.Some definitions $P(a,b)$ a zero coupond price at time $a$ and maturity $b$ $L(a,b)$ simply compounded spot interest rate set at ...
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1answer
80 views

Arbitrage Strategy Proof in Bjork

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition Proposition 2.9 Suppose that a claim X is reachable with replicating portfolio h. Then any price at t=0 of ...
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1answer
111 views

Black–Karasinski - Market Price of Risk

In the past I have calibrated simple short rate models to the term structure by using maximum likelihood to get the parameters of the Vasicek/CIR sde, and then use the ZCB formula and the current ...
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1answer
363 views

robust open source Kalman filter library in C++

I would like to know if anyone has experience with a good open source kalman filter implementation in C++ that I could use. I require an implementation that supports computation of likelihood similar ...
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1answer
131 views

Short-term directional trading

Did value of ratio between informed and uninformed traders at market, making difference to profitability of short-term directional trading on that market? My guess is yes and better play short-term ...
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1answer
79 views

regarding Basel II III model

I may have to get involved in some projects using Basel II, III model for risk modeling, to which I have no background. Are there any good book/tutorials to recommend? What are the underlying ...
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3answers
66 views

Obtaining Expense Ratio Data

I have a list of tickers (~11,500) in a .txt/.csv file and accompanying fund data from yahoo finance. I'm wondering if there is a reasonably easy/accessible way to use this list to obtain expense ...
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1answer
59 views

Regression of TAQ half-hourly stock volume data against news volume

I am planning to run regression of half-hourly stock volume against the half-hourly news volume for that particular stock. I am looking at 2 years of data for my analysis. However, I am stuck thinking ...
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3answers
128 views

Is there any other way to measure option pricing model performance than proximity to market prices?

Short version Why do we take market prices as the prices to be estimated and predicted? The common answer is efficient markets hypothesis as in "Market agents do their best effort given their ...
1
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1answer
104 views

Volatility of Option

I hope I'm asking this at the right place. This pertains to actuarial exam MFE/3F on Financial Economics. If $\sigma$ is "volatility" and $\Omega$ the elasticity of the stock, one formula that is ...
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1answer
25 views

How to define the median for bivariate function?

I know if we define a function f(x) and its cdf is F(x). The inverse function of cdf is inverseF. I can define its median as follows: median = inverseF(0.5). But if I want to get the median for a ...
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1answer
90 views

Forward rates diffusion

I used a simple market model (Black 76) to price an american swaption. It's a formula similar to B&S, with another numeraire and forward rate as underlying. I used the SDE: $$ dF = \sigma * ...
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1answer
42 views

The role of micro credit in finance

The concept of micro credit has been around for a while. Recall that Muhammad Yunus together with Grameen Bank were awarded the Nobel price in this context. I don't have references at hand but I ...
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1answer
148 views

High correlation will help detect spurious regression over cointegration?

I'm analyzing two financial time series with Johansen method. A high Correlation coefficient using the Pearson method will help me to detect spurious cointegration models to avoid? If this is not ...
1
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1answer
58 views

Adjusting open, highs and lows for past monthly stock prices?

I'm looking into modelling monthly stock prices and want to start off by using data from Yahoo Finance. I know that the closing prices given there are adjusted for stock splits and dividends, but ...
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1answer
30 views

How to reason about leverage in terms of elasticity

Return of an investment for a given period is by definition: $$r = \frac{P}{W_0} - 1$$ where $P$ is the price of the investment at the end of the period, and $W_0$ is the initial investment. I want ...
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4answers
174 views

How can I calculate Value at Risk?

Is it possible calculate Value at Risk on an asset without a time horizon? What kind of variables do you need? Variables that are on the table are value, standard deviation, beta, market return, risk ...
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1answer
89 views

novice question on fixed coupon schedule in QuantLib

For some bonds I work with the last coupon date is not equal to bond's maturity date. E.g. the last coupon date is April 25th, 2020 and maturity date is April 25th, 2021. I looked at Schedule class ...
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1answer
67 views

Will pricing a Bermudan option default to a value of a European option?

I have a call option with 2 expiry in two years. For the first 9 months I cannot excercise the option. After that the I can exercise at any time. I am pricing this option using a binomial tree using ...
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1answer
113 views

Constant term in linear regresion

Can someone give a mathematical proof as to why including a constant in a linear regression equivalent is to running a regression with demeaned data and zero constant? More specifically, consider the ...
1
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1answer
579 views

GARCH model and prediction

I have a question about the prediction of volatility and returns of a time series. Basically it is a question about prediction in the ...
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1answer
139 views

How would you correct a GARCH model to deal with non mean reverting volatility?

I am currently attempting to model and forecast volatility of bitcoin but have not been able to find a GARCH model that fits the data appropriately. I've used tick data sampled at 1 hour intervals ...
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1answer
114 views

Bond Spread Drivers

I have some work to do on the drivers of government bond spreads - ie. across terms (not across governments) of the yield curve, say 5yr and 20yr bond spreads from the same government issuer - and am ...
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2answers
183 views

Are power contracts traded on any stock market?

Are power contracts traded on any stock markets ? What about OTC markets ? I ask about the derivatives where payoff is some exponential function of difference between strike and spot price.
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1answer
32 views

Integration in the context of modelling with the Meixner Process

I failed to evaluate the integral of $\frac{e^{ax}}{x\sinh(bx)}$ with respect to $x$ from negative infinite to positive infinite, What techniques can I use to evaluate the integrals of such kind for ...
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1answer
122 views

Price volatility and yield volatility

This question is a bit confused, but please bear with me. Now and then I see people use the terminology "price volatility" and "yield volatility" in connection with bond options. I understand the ...
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1answer
134 views

How can I use PCA to determine spread ratios for multiple legs?

I would like to generalize Paul Teetor's A Better Hedge Ratio, which uses prcomp() to determine a ratio between two legs. I am hoping to extend this to multiple legs, but am having trouble finding ...
1
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1answer
163 views

Given future price probability distribution, what is a strategy that maximizes return?

Say I know the price probability distribution, e.g., lognormal(p,s), of a stock X at a future time ...
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3answers
102 views

How often do banks update forward points?

My understanding is that forward rates are calculated by comparing interbank interest rates of the 2 currencies for a currency pair, with the points being the difference between spot and the forward ...
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1answer
67 views

Baye's rule for conditional expectations (Proof review)

The Baye's rule for conditional expectations states $$ E^Q[X|\mathcal{F}]E^P[f|\mathcal{F}]=E^P[Xf|\mathcal{F}] $$ With $f=dQ/dP$ - thus being the Radon-Nikodyn derivative and $X$ being ...
1
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1answer
103 views

Direct exchange data via a Vendor

I am considering the option between using direct exchange connections vs using a vendor like Bloomberg for market data. I am interested in daily data and potentially tick by tickdata. Initially I am ...
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1answer
253 views

Value Weighted Return

I recently have started to look at some data from CRSP, and they have a metric called Value Weighted Return (two versions with and without distributions). When I looked it up, it seemed that this ...
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1answer
175 views

List of financial derivatives Ito's Lemma does not apply

According to Ito's Lemma there is no restriction on the continuity of the stochastic process. The restrictions are on the continuity of the pay-off so that second derivatives with respect to ...

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