2
votes
1answer
261 views

Determining the portfolio return distribution to calculate CVaR/ES

I'm trying to do a portfolio optimization with an expected shortfall constraint. For this, it is necessary to know the distribution of expected portfolio returns. When doing this empirically, my plan ...
3
votes
0answers
263 views

Market risk stress testing?

I am doing a research for a paper for market risk stress testing. In fact I found some information on the web about this important topic such as: Stress Testing from Art to Science Stress Testing ...
6
votes
2answers
269 views

How to deal with zeroes in returns?

Suppose there are two time series that I want to analyze and compare. However, many, or most, of the data are zeroes for some reason. For example, consider a pair of intraday trading returns time ...
2
votes
0answers
121 views

Is there such a thing as “sell-off risk” in bond funds?

Popular yet generally academically-grounded commentators such as Annette Thau and Larry Swedroe have claimed that there is the possibility for "sell-off risk" in bond funds. By this they apparently ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

How can you convert the CUSIP of a bond issue to the CUSIP of the company's stock/

As part of a research project I ran a query on the Mergent FISD database using the WRDS website. The output included the CUSIPs of numerous bond issues (>10000). I am using this data to run event ...
1
vote
0answers
137 views

Practical quantitative finance problems that could be solved in trustless grid computing environment?

Are there any relevant computationally intensive quantitative finance problems that could be outsourced to a trustless grid? By a trustless grid I mean that you cannot trust it with the access to your ...
4
votes
1answer
935 views

On short-rate-models: Black-Karasinski (with constant parameters) compared to Vasicek

When modelling the term structure of interest rates, one widespread possibility is using the Black-Karasinski model, which is given by the following stochastic process ...
1
vote
1answer
140 views

Regression of Unequally Weighted Portfolio against a Single Index

When I regress a single stock against a market index, I get a high value of R2 and beta closer to 1. APPL.fit <- lm(APPL ~ JKSE) When I regress an unequally ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Typical risk aversion parameter value for mean-variance optimization?

What are typical values for risk aversion parameters $\lambda$ used in mean-variance optimization? Please provide references. Just to be clear, I'm talking about the $\lambda$ in $U(w) = w'\mu - ...
0
votes
1answer
103 views

Analyst Forecasts for monthly unemployment rate

Are there any resources that tabulate past analyst forecasts for the monthly unemployment rate along with the dispersion of the forecasts
4
votes
1answer
145 views

Estimating investor's utility from the trades data

Is it possible to infer investor's utility function from the set of decisions she is making? Let's assume for simplicity that the market consists of a single traded asset whose return distribution is ...
2
votes
2answers
165 views

Risk theory is a part of financial mathematics

In my program on Financial mathematics we studied such topics as pricing, portfolio management, risk theory (probability of ruin of an insurance company) etc. However, now I often see a line between ...
1
vote
1answer
109 views

Bracket-Notation in SDEs

I often come across the following notation in my script, and I have not found it anywhere else. While our lecturer insists it is of utmost importance to write this way in his exams, he yet failed to ...
5
votes
0answers
159 views

Covariance estimation

Shrinkage was much en-vogue before RMT took everybody's attention, however the latter also showed its limits. A plethora of other estimators has been presented, but I could not yet spot a golden ...
7
votes
2answers
1k views

Beta vs. Implied Volatility statistical arbitrage using options

Let two underlyings, $S_{1}$ and $S_{2}$, are correlated and $\beta$ is the slope of their returns linear regression, that is, it says how much $S_{1}$ co-variates with $S_{2}$ variance. For ...
4
votes
0answers
93 views

Simple way to get the crossing probabilities of a moving barrier

Hello Quant Finance StackExchange, Is there a simple way to find the crossing probabilities of a moving barrier, namely a barrier written in the form $U(t)=\alpha_1t^2 + \beta_1t + \gamma_1$ and ...
5
votes
0answers
137 views

Distribution of hitting time of the integrated CIR process

If an increasing process $X_t$ has a known Laplace transform $\mathbb{E} e^{-s X_t} = m_t(s)$, define its hitting time $\tau$ to some level $B$ to be $$ \tau = \inf\{ u > 0 : X_u \geq B \}. $$ Can ...
0
votes
0answers
253 views

Simple EOD computations for tick data

As part of End-Of-Day calculations once a particular market/exchange has closed for all the tickers traded on that market one may typically compute the following properties: OHLC Bid/Ask Price ...
3
votes
3answers
448 views

Loading HF stock data into excel

Are there any free, open source VBA addins or R packages that can be linked using the yahoo finance/Google finance/other data sources api to continuously download intraday data into excel or R? ...
3
votes
1answer
289 views

How is the Sharpe Ratio presented in fund profiles usually calculated?

To compare my stock portfolio generator with managed funds performance, I want to calculate the Sharpe Ratio of my historic portfolios with the numbers found on the fund company web sites or in ...
0
votes
1answer
2k views

Stock prices using a monte carlo simulation with a normal inverse gauss distribution

I am supposed to model daily stock prices with a normal inverse gauss distribution in excel. I feel like I am misssing some basics because I cant transform the information from the academic papers ...
0
votes
2answers
634 views

expected value of the discounted payoff

I don't understand the following statement: The price of a contingent claim is the expected value of the discounted payoff value under the risk neutral probability measure Q defined in complete markets ...
4
votes
2answers
528 views

Is duration really inversely related to the maturity time length of a bond?

It is always said that longer bonds are more sensitive to interest rates. Intuitively this makes perfect sense, since longer bonds have a larger portion of its cash flow being subjected to stronger ...
1
vote
0answers
443 views

Implied volatility and greeks for american option with discrete dividends

What methods are available to calculate IV and greeks for an american option with discrete dividends, and how do they compare? Should I use Roll-Geske-Whaley and solve for a given option price?
2
votes
1answer
476 views

Formula for variance of European call/put in Black Scholes

I have a quite basic question, but I can't find a reference with it. Recall that we can use the Black-Scholes formula to price a European call or put for a market consisting when: the underlying ...
1
vote
1answer
4k views

Implied interest rate from FX swap

This is not homework. I am trying to calculate the implied interest rate of one currency (C2) using an FX swap and the interest rate of another currency (C1 - base). I have the following: Spot: ...
1
vote
0answers
391 views

GJR-GARCH modeling in stata

I am wanting to run a GJR-Garch model in stata and I am having problems identifying what command I need to put into the system. When using the commands I receive two different ways to do so and I am ...
0
votes
1answer
456 views

Zero Curve Calculation for AUD, CAD (post LIBOR scandal)

In the end of May 2013 British Bankers Association (BBA) stopped publishing LIBOR rates for Australian and Canadian dollars in a light of recent scandals. LIBOR rates were essential for creating zero ...
6
votes
2answers
5k views

How to numerically obtain delta?

The delta in option pricing, also called the hedge ratio, is expressed as the sensitivity of the option price to the underlying price change. The analytical solution for the most common option ...
4
votes
0answers
157 views

ERP and FF 3-factor model

In a more conservative estimate than a simple historical average, Fama & French estimate (US) equity risk premium at 3-4% (e.g., Equity Risk Premium, JF, 2002). This suggests that in an APT-like ...
6
votes
2answers
919 views

Principle Component Analysis vs. Cholesky Decomposition for MonteCarlo

Let's assume we have a portfolio containing large number (~500) of risk factors. We want to simulate the portfolio dynamics. PCA based simulation would be faster as we can reduce the dimensionality. ...
4
votes
2answers
349 views

Black-Scholes fastest computation method

What is the fastest way to numerically compute Black-Scholes-Merton option prices? I'm trying to find fastest and still precise method. Currently I'm using numerical approximation of Normal cdf with ...
3
votes
1answer
245 views

Magnitude of Transaction Cost for Institutional Investors

For my thesis, I'm writing about robust portfolio allocation. I have the idea to include a measure of transaction cost, since ignoring them seems too simplifying for a real-world problem. Comparing a ...
0
votes
0answers
80 views

Can the equity premium puzzle be explained by volatility-induced financial growth?

Citing the paper Volatility-induced financial growth (2007) by Dempster et al.: when asset returns are stationary ergodic, their volatility, together with any fixed-mix trading strategy, generates a ...
2
votes
2answers
133 views

Pricing Assets in the S&P Dynamic Asset Exchange

I am attempting to recreate the S&P Dynamic Asset Exchange using the methodology outlined in this paper. I am struggling to 'normalize' the prices of the assets properly. On page 6 of the ...
4
votes
1answer
137 views

What is the analytic value of an asset's risk contribution, if $n=2$?

The marginal risk contribution of asset $i$ is defined by Roncalli in his paper on ERC as follows: $$\frac{\partial \sigma(x)}{\partial x_i} = \frac{1}{\sigma(x)} \left( w_i \sigma_i^2 + ...
2
votes
1answer
106 views

if market is always assumed right, what happened when LIBOR was manupulated?

Recently Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) raps banks in rate-rigging. This is nothing new, LIBOR was also manupulated before, by some "major" banks. however, before the censorship, did any ...
2
votes
0answers
158 views

Dual curves and short rate calibration

When I calibrate a short rate model to market swaption vols, what curve am I getting when I plug in the calibrated parameters into the analytical formulae (assuming they exist for the model I'm ...
1
vote
0answers
185 views

How to statistically compare the pricing errors of various option pricing models?

I have three different option pricing models, for which I computed the in-sample and out-of-sample pricing errors. Now I want to test the pricing performance of these three option pricing models ...
-4
votes
1answer
54 views

Does YTM represent interest? [closed]

Does a bond's Yield to Maturity represent the amount of interest one gets at maturity even though it's expressed as a percentage? I read that it is a rate of return on a bond at maturity, but what is ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

Difference between google finance and yahoo finance?

I am wondering about the huge differences of the data provider google finance and yahoo finance. I am interested in the monthly data from adidas listed on xetra. In google: ETR:ADS and in yahoo ...
8
votes
3answers
1k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...
9
votes
1answer
698 views

Applicability of PCA to get historical volatilities to calibrate interest rates trees

My question in short is as follows: can I take main principal component of historical covariance matrix and use it as historical volatilities when fitting a binomial tree? Here's more detailed ...
1
vote
0answers
1k views

Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
9
votes
1answer
393 views

Is creating constrained random portfolios a hard problem?

Creating random portfolios with weights $x_i$ can be thought of as sampling from the surface of a simplex given by $$Ex = f$$ and $$Ax \le b$$ Where $E$ and $A$ are constraint matrices for equality ...
3
votes
5answers
383 views

Is there a name for, or any research on, a system where you try to predict future price by finding a similar price history in the past?

Allow me to explain. You look back from some period to the present. Say a week ago to now, using a per-minute view. You then crawl through your database of past price data, and you try to find a ...
2
votes
2answers
120 views

Approximating a function with trignometric polynomials

Let’s say I have a function, which is a time series of data points, I am trying to find a polynomial of fixed sine's and cosines that bests approximate the data points. I know Chebyshev Approximation ...
0
votes
0answers
71 views

% Return on backtest with variable positions and notional amounts

I have a 14 year backtest for a systematic strategy that uses a static notional per each position. On any given day I could have multiple positions long and short and notional long and short. How do ...
2
votes
0answers
892 views

How to calculate the conditional variance of a time series?

I am reading a paper where the term conditional variance is mentioned, but I am not really sure what is meant by this and how this can be calculated: Fig. 2 shows the conditional variances of the ...
8
votes
6answers
3k views

Why Drifts are not in the Black Scholes Formula

This question has puzzled me for a while. We all know geometric brownian motions have drifts $\mu$: $dS / S = \mu dt + \sigma dW$ and different stocks have different drifts of $\mu$. Why would ...

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