1
vote
0answers
36 views

order routing for a fill [closed]

Lets assume a FIFO rules in futures, I buy a contract and id like to sell it. Should I estimate the possibilite of orders on opposite side would be filled first? If I watch new orders incoming at new ...
6
votes
4answers
520 views

If I have found a way to predict stocks trend with 58% accuracy, is it good?

Say I have found a way through technical analysis to predict how stocks would behave with 58% accuracy, how good is this percentage?
1
vote
0answers
40 views

How should I use central banks rates in order to compute 2-day forward exchange rate on EURUSD

Good morning, I would like to compute a 2-day forward exchange rate on EURUSD. For that, I have historical data on EURUSD spot price, and I know that theoretically, when maturity is T we have : $F_0$...
5
votes
1answer
127 views

Sharpe Maximization under Quadratic Constraints

When doing Sharpe optimization $$ \max_x \frac{\mu^T x}{\sqrt{x^T Q x}} $$ there is a common trick (section 5.2) used to put the problem in convex form. You add a variable $\kappa$ such that $x = ...
3
votes
1answer
114 views

Boundary conditions of PDE from SV model with stochastic interest rate

The PDE for the American put option price $P(S,\sigma ,r,t)$ is \begin{align*} 0 =& P_t+P_SS(r-\delta)+P_\sigma a(\sigma)+P_r\alpha (r,t) \\ +& \frac{1}{2}P_{SS}S^2\sigma ^2 + \frac{1}{2}...
2
votes
2answers
230 views

How to select optimal look back period for statistical arbitrage?

Is it possible to estimate the optimal look back period for OLS from which we test if residuals are stationary? Almost all papers that I read use random look back periods of 100 days, 252 days, 500 ...
3
votes
1answer
84 views

Estimate market risk premium?

There are uncountably many factor models to estimate stock returns, such as CAPM, Fama-French, Carhart-Momentum, APT etc. Which models can estimate the market (index) return? I found only three ...
5
votes
1answer
163 views

Is there a Bloomberg field for the first trading date after an event?

For example, if a company reports earnings today after the close (6/24), the earnings date would be 6/24 but the field I'm looking for would be 6/25. If they reported tomorrow before the open, both ...
3
votes
0answers
139 views

Model a floating rate BBB yield curve

Background: We want to design a compensated prepayment liability index to define an amount a bond buyer would need to receive in a redemption prior to the nominal maturity of a bond. Ideally we'd ...
6
votes
0answers
947 views

Bridgewater's Daily Observations

Bridgewater Associates send out Daily Observations to their clients, but I haven't found many traces of these publications online. The series started some 40 years ago by Ray Dalio, and there're just ...
0
votes
1answer
85 views

Local volatility parametrization using the spot

Is it possible to estimate the local volatility using the spot price S at time t instead of the strike price K and the expiry date T ? Any help would be appreciated.
2
votes
1answer
132 views

Acquiring large sets of price series

Selling and delivering real-time data seems to be the focus of practically all large data vendors, but I am more interested in acquiring large sets of historical daily data covering, say, 5.000 ...
7
votes
1answer
84 views

Does price of american (put) option exhibit smooth pasting in time direction under B-S model?

Let us consider the BS model and let $f(s,t)$ denote the price of an American put option with $t$ to expiry, then it is known the solution of the optimal stopping (when it is risk neutral) related to ...
3
votes
2answers
105 views

Hedging portfolio and extraction PDE of SV model with stochastic interest rate

How can I extraction this PDE \begin{align*} 0 =& P_t+P_SS(r-\delta)+P_\sigma a(\sigma)+P_r\alpha (r,t) \\ +& \frac{1}{2}P_{SS}S^2\sigma ^2 + \frac{1}{2}P_{\sigma \sigma}b^2(\sigma)+\frac{...
3
votes
3answers
185 views

Arbitrage bounds for Black-Scholes

In some implied volatility code I came across, there is a check to ensure there is no violation of the arbitrage bounds based on the inputs to the method. For the call option, if $$P < 0.99 * (S-...
4
votes
2answers
312 views

Covariance between two stocks in a two-factor model

I am studying the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using Pairs Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis.In page 44 the author gives an example on how to calculate the covariance between two stocks. I will ...
4
votes
1answer
140 views

Options on Volatility Control Index

I have two question. Does an option on volatility control index exist? If I google it, it seems like there is such an option, but I can't find the option on any of exchanges. So this is my first ...
1
vote
0answers
80 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: "...
1
vote
1answer
195 views

Jacobian transformation

I am trying to calculate pillar-wise sensitivity of a fixed coupon bond using par rates (given pillar-wise zero coupon sensitivities). I came across the formula pv01(par) = pv01(zero) * dz/dr, where ...
4
votes
1answer
115 views

Availability of TotalView-ITCH data

I am looking for a cheap (< $500) NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH real-time streaming data feed. Are there any cheap and (relatively) good market vendors out there that offer this? It seems as if the ...
2
votes
1answer
73 views

Why there are almost no book for revenue analytic?

Why there are almost no book for revenue analytic? By revenue analytic, it is meant to be predicting the revenue of a firm in the future
1
vote
1answer
61 views

Arbitraging upward sloping yield curve

I read from various sources that yield curve is normally upward sloping. If that's the case, if we borrow short term and lend long term, won't we always make money on average? Let's say 1-year ...
3
votes
1answer
73 views

VaR calculation accuracy/comparison/effectiveness through different R packages

My question is what would be the better( in terms of estimation accuracy) method of VaR calculation among below two:, also any small code snippet will be great as a starting point for me. 1st method: ...
2
votes
1answer
309 views

Why is my YTM incorrect? How does accrued interest play into Yield to Maturity?

I'm writing some software that includes a feature to calculate Yield to Maturity for a Bond. I'm using an HP 10bii Financial Calculator to double check the answers produced by my software. I'm running ...
2
votes
3answers
109 views

Unique risk neutral measure for Brownian Motion

For a standard geometric Brownian motion model of stock prices: $$ dS = a S dt + \sigma S dZ$$ we can transform the process to be under risk neutral measure: $$ dS = r S dt + \sigma S d \tilde{Z}$$ ...
1
vote
1answer
134 views

Capital gains and dividends tax arbitrage

There is a statement in Paul Wimott Introduce Quantitative Finance: Often capital gains due to the rise in a stock price are taxed differently from a dividend, which is often treated as income. ...
3
votes
2answers
172 views

Interpretation of Drift

Consider the common model of stock prices given by a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which follows the SDE $$ dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + \sigma S(t) dW(t). $$ Below is a plot of a simulation of such a ...
2
votes
2answers
136 views

The Distribution of Future Stock Price

In Hull, we are presented that $$\frac{\Delta S}{S_{0}}=\mu \Delta t+\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}\cdot \varepsilon.$$ Following some algebra, $$ \begin{align*} \frac{\Delta S}{S_{0}} &=\mu \Delta t+\...
22
votes
2answers
2k views

Have Goldman Sachs Quantitative Strategies Research Notes been published as a book or a comprehensive collection?

Back in the 90's, Goldman Sachs (publicly?) released a series called "Quantitative Strategies Research Notes" — mostly technical papers on topic. Emanuel Derman co-authored almost all of them. Some ...
4
votes
2answers
526 views

Seasonal patterns in financial markets (weekday effects)

What seasonal patterns are there in financial markets? Is my feeling "true" that Mondays are more volatile than e.g. Tuesdays (as information gathered during the weekend can only be turned into an ...
1
vote
2answers
367 views

Confidence Intervals of Stock Following a Geometric Brownian Motion

In preparation for my Options, Future's and Risk Management examination next week, I have been presented with a series of questions and their answers. Unfortunately, my lecturer, one of the less ...
1
vote
0answers
98 views

Price of an American call option [closed]

I'm working through revision questions at the moment and we are asked to compute the price of an American call option. Suppose that $dS_t = \sigma S_t dW^*_t, S_0 >0$ Let $0<U<T$ be fixed ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

how does a bond maturing affect the pricing of the corresponding CDS?

if a bond matures, and there is no other existing bond from the legal entity that has not matured. Then how does that affect the CDS that corresponds to that bond?
2
votes
1answer
115 views

How to use calibrated Standard Stochastic Volatility?

I'm considering the standard stochastic volatility model: $$x_t = \rho x_{t-1} + \sigma \epsilon_x$$ $$y_t = \beta \exp\left[ \frac{x_t}{2} \right] \epsilon_y$$ where $y_t$ is the log-returns and $...
2
votes
2answers
68 views

Measuring Volatility from Execution Prices

I was told of a way of measuring the volatility of a stock by looking at the reported execution prices (from Level III or Level II data.) I'm well aware of how to measure volatility by looking at the ...
6
votes
2answers
112 views

How to price an European Call/Put Option of a jump difussion Process?

Lets have the next jump difussion Stochastic Process: $$S_t = S_0 e^{\sigma W_t + (v-\frac{\sigma ^2}{2})t}\prod_{i=1}^{N_t}(1+J_i)$$ where $W_t$ is the Brownian Motion, hence $G_t \equiv e^{\sigma ...
2
votes
2answers
180 views

Extracting Signal from Noisy Data

Consider a scenario in which Y_t represents the % change in price and we want to use X_t to predict Y_t. We assume that X_t is information we get before Y_t is revealed. Suppose that in reality Y_t =...
8
votes
3answers
1k views

Sharpe ratio and leverage

Does leverage affect the Sharpe ratio? If my Sharpe is 2 at no leverage goes it change, fall by half say, at no leverage?
3
votes
0answers
62 views

Reference Request: Horse Race for Portfolio Allocation

Probably the most popular horse race study for portfolio strategies is Optimal versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient Is the 1/N Portfolio Strategy?, with DeMiguel, L. Garlappi and R. Uppal....
3
votes
1answer
103 views

LIBOR with different tenor

Let $F(t;S,T)$ be the forward rate from $S$ to $T$ seen at time $t$, and $I$ be one of tenors, i.e. $I$ is one of {1M, 3M, 6M, 12M}. Then the forward curve $t\mapsto F(0;t,t+I)$ is $I$-forward curve. ...
4
votes
2answers
89 views

Does heteroskedasticity of returns depend on the time frame?

Similarly to my last question, for which I obtained very interesting and useful answers, I would like to know if there has been any study regarding heteroskedasticity and time-frames of the returns. ...
3
votes
3answers
125 views

Parameters variation in fundraising financial model

I have created quite a large financial model in Excel with lots of input parameters which (after all calculations) have an influence on the output business indicators. Among the input parameters are ...
2
votes
3answers
117 views

Multi-asset class allocation

How to allocate asset classes in a multi-asset portfolio? An institutional client needs to meet his pension liabilities, and suggested a multi-asset-class strategy. I'm trying to find ideas to pitch. ...
7
votes
3answers
966 views

Option Pricing Model Calibration In Practice

I'm curious how an option pricing model like the Heston model is calibrated in practice. Here's how I imagine it happens: Let's say I have access to the most recent option prices on a given stock ...
3
votes
0answers
70 views

Residual Covariance Matrix, and MVO for Residual Variance and Alpha

My overall goal is to find an efficient frontier using QP in terms of $\alpha$ and residual variance ($\omega^2$) for a portfolio $P$ given a benchmark $B$. We know the equation for residual variance ...
3
votes
1answer
59 views

How do you deal with Inflation lag in a MC simulation?

Consider the UK RPI index. This index is published every month around the 15th (give or take a few days). The publication refers to the RPI index of the month before, so there is a lag of a few weeks ...
3
votes
1answer
117 views

Kenneth R. French data base on momentum and size: construction and how to use it concretely with momentum only

So, you can find all the data bases on this site. More explicitly, I would like to take the "Developed Market Factors and Returns" part. Even more explicitly, let us take the "25 Portfolios Formed on ...
4
votes
1answer
182 views

Lipschitz condition in mathematical finance

I am interested in a rigorous explanation on why the Lipschitz condition plays a major part in stochastic calculus, most significantly in mathematical finance. To be specific, suppose we want to ...
6
votes
2answers
123 views

What are Sell Imbalance-Only Orders?

I am reading the 2014 SEC filing against Athena, a HFT firm. (http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2014/34-73369.pdf) At point 29, they describe the behavior of Athena moments before market closing ...

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