2
votes
3answers
915 views

Trading a synthetic replication of the VVIX (volatility of VIX)

In the same spirit as this question: Trading a synthetic replication of the VIX index. The VVIX tracks the volatility of the VIX. One cannot directly buy and sell the VVIX index and, as opposed to ...
4
votes
0answers
148 views

Discrete-time Jump-Diffusion Model

I am wondering if anybody could point me to any literature that talks about a discrete time version of the jump-diffusion model, I am aware that there is a paper by Amin (1993) that shows a discrete ...
2
votes
2answers
872 views

Detrending price data for analysis of signal returns

I'm looking to conduct hypothesis tests on some of my trading signals to see if the signal returns are statistically significant enough to falsify my null hypothesis that the signal has no predictive ...
2
votes
1answer
181 views

In Yahoo! Finance, what determines the number of decimals for a stock/index quote?

In Yahoo! Finance, we see the following quotes among others: ...
3
votes
1answer
147 views

How to properly cross-validate when optimizing SVM classification?

I'm using SVM binary classification to predict movement of NASDAQ stock prices. My question is regarding cross-validation. I will divide the training data into V subsets. Training will be performed on ...
4
votes
2answers
171 views

Can money technically flow in and out of stocks or asset classes?

For every buyer, there is a seller. Money can't 'flow' in and out of a stock, only the price changes. Is this applicable in the context of asset classes, for example, money market funds versus stocks? ...
4
votes
0answers
141 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
3
votes
1answer
295 views

How to calculate probability of touching a take-profit without touching a stop-loss?

How to calculate probability of touching a take-profit without touching a stop-loss (no-dividend stock, infinite time)?
7
votes
4answers
1k views

Why the interest rate for put-call parity is not constant?

Usimg the put-call parity $C - P = S - K · e^{-rt}$ I tried to estimate the value of $e^{-rt}$, the present value of a zero-coupon bond that matures to 1 in time $t$: $e^{-rt} = (P - C + S) / K$ ...
2
votes
2answers
401 views

performance attribution

I am trying to do some performance attribution for a few portfolios we manage. What I am trying to examine are three different sources of returns: The general asset allocation Security Selection The ...
3
votes
2answers
930 views

Pair Trading Index Options

Suppose the trade is between Index Options of two Indices X and Y which are quite similar (but not exactly). So for the equivalent strikes, one can quote option on Index X and cover in Index Y. But ...
2
votes
1answer
193 views

Combining covariances?

Consider an economy with assets with return processes $A$, $B$, $C$, $D$. Consider a weighted index with return process $I=aA + bB + cC + dD$ where $a,b,c,d$ are coefficients, and $a+b+c+d = 1$. ...
6
votes
4answers
3k views

Analyzing tick data

What are some of the commonly used techniques to analyze tick data? I am looking at tick data to see how the quotes/ mid-price evolves due to certain events in the market. Since tick data is ...
-1
votes
1answer
567 views

Is it possible to “steal” financial data on publicly traded companies off the internet? Legally, I mean, what is the truth about “data” as a property

What constitutes "stealing" when it comes to publicly posted financial data? I think there are three instances of this that we can individually vet: a.) you physically broke into a location or ...
1
vote
1answer
93 views

Generating Return Streams for stress testing

There is never enough market data for testing. And sampling from user defined distribution is a hotly debated subject as which distribution does the market really go with? There are many ways to ...
3
votes
2answers
2k views

How to account for bid/ask spread when backtesting?

I'm backtesting an algorithm for trading nasdaq stocks, and would like to take into account the spread. I am using historical data from yahoo, which contains: open, high, low, close, volume, adj. ...
7
votes
3answers
3k views

Why would a 6M LIBOR rate be significantly above 3M LIBOR, ED futures and swap rates?

Just was just looking at the various interest rates and noticed this: ...
2
votes
2answers
437 views

constructing a minimum variance portfolio

Assume a US-based company has sold something to a Norwegian company. It will receive 1M Norwegian Kroner in two months, and would like to hedge this future cash flow against currency exchange risk. ...
9
votes
2answers
2k views

When to use Monte Carlo simulation over analytical methods for options pricing?

I've been using Monte Carlo simulation (MC) for pricing vanilla options with non-lognormal underlyings returns. I'm tempted to start using MC as my primary option-valuating technique as I can get ...
15
votes
1answer
476 views

Measuring Behavioral Finance Effects in Fund/Portfolio Manager Analysis

I want to know if there are some standardized measures to evaluate how irrationally human a portfolio manager is. Are there any performance measures or scorings for behavioral finance effects? How ...
2
votes
1answer
9k views

How to calculate equally weighted market portfolio

There's two studies that test the same thing in different markets (i.e. they apply the identical methodology). They state: 1) "$R_{mt}$ is the equally weighted average stock return in the dual-listed ...
5
votes
0answers
138 views

Testing for stock market herding over short periods

The literature has well established methods for testing stock market herding over a decent time window. Are there any ways that have appeared in the literature to test for stock market herding over ...
2
votes
1answer
377 views

Running a simple alpha estimation test for statistical significance of a signal

I'm looking for some direction on testing whether a simple entry signal has statistical significance. Let's say this is my simple entry signal: Buy when some indicator has a positive slope and is ...
1
vote
1answer
153 views

Resampled efficient frontier length of simulation

I was provided with a VBA program from my lecturer that applies the resampled efficient frontier. We have an investment horizon $T$ (6 years) and he uses a multivariate normal distribution with ...
4
votes
1answer
940 views

Michaud's Resampled Efficient Frontier - Out of Sample Simulation Testing

I will be putting ALL my account points on bounty to whoever answers this question [if your answer is crap but it's the only answer, you're getting the 165 points]. You will have to wait 2 days or so ...
0
votes
2answers
317 views

Howto Calculate An Error's Partial Derivative in ANN

This is a follow-on question from this post I made, "Multilayer Perceptron (Neural Network) for Time Series Prediction", a few months back. I'm constructing a feed-forward artificial neural network, ...
5
votes
2answers
168 views

Economic contagion to individual stocks (ideas for analysis)

I'm doing my undergraduate thesis on firm-level contagion. Specifically I look at a measure of performance over a financial crisis (e.g. raw stock returns), then run cross-sectional regressions with ...
2
votes
1answer
424 views

What are the advantages of knowing the bid and ask over the best bid and ask?

I am importing historical intraday tick data from Bloomberg and I noticed the Bloomberg API allows users to import best bid, best ask, bid, and ask prices If I am backtesting a trading strategy, what ...
3
votes
1answer
295 views

Integrating log-normal

The usual log normal model in differential form is: $dS = \mu S dt + \sigma S dX$ where $dX$ is the stochastic part, so $\frac{dS}{S} = \mu dt + \sigma dX$ (1) and we normally solve this by ...
1
vote
1answer
338 views

Unsystematic/Idiosyncratic/Firm-specific volatility/variance in the market model?

I was asked to use idiosyncratic volatility as a regressor in a cross-sectional regression upon cross-sectional returns as the dependent variable. Returns can be thought of as the raw log stock return ...
1
vote
0answers
284 views

VaR backtesting with overlapping time intervals

Of course the issue here is dependence: can it be removed or accounted for (in independence tests too, which of course would be troublesome)? There's a lot of literature on regression in this setting, ...
6
votes
2answers
920 views

Comparing MVO with Resampled Efficient Frontier

My question: How can I compare the Resampled Frontier (REF) to the standard MVO frontier when I have been provided with $\mu$, $\Omega$, and don't have access to true future data to test real out of ...
1
vote
1answer
295 views

equity linked notes (bull/bear equity performance bonds)

I have to price what my lecturer calls "Bull and Bear Equity Performance Bonds". Basically there's dates $t_i \in [0,T]$, where $t_i - t_{i-1}$ is the same for all choice of $i$. On each date the bull ...
0
votes
1answer
435 views

S&P 500 P/E percentile

I am researching the past five year return for the securities in the top and bottom 10 percentile of the S&P 500 on date 5 years ago. I used Bloomberg to get this data. When I searched for the ...
6
votes
4answers
1k views

Fastest solver possible for portfolio optimization

I am using quadprog in MATLAB for very simple mean-variance optimization, with less than 100 assets. It is quite fast but if I run a strategy with daily ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Strategies for Liar's Poker

This question is only tangentially related to quantitative finance. Scott Patterson's book The Quants describes how a quant at Kidder Peabody figured out a strategy to playing Liar's Poker in the late ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

What happens if a custodian bank defaults?

This question follows up my answer and the related comment to this post and in general relates to counterparty risk. When you buy a financial asset, this asset goes in your account at your custodian ...
2
votes
0answers
102 views

Difference between kappa and delta in mixed-effects model

(This question is a crosspost from Cross Validated) I have a following stochastic model describing evolution of a process (Y) in space and time. Ds and Dt are domain in space (2D with x and y axes) ...
6
votes
4answers
297 views

Government bonds with negative yield

In the recent time-series of bonds issued by (for example) Germany, Austria and France we see an unfamiliar phenomenon: negative yields. This is mainly the issue on the short end of the yield curve. ...
7
votes
4answers
2k views

Library of basic indicators

I am looking to start developing a trend following strategy and have been looking to do something in either C# or Java and wondered if there was a library or framework out there that would make ...
0
votes
2answers
185 views

Trade Count Time Series

Is historical information on the counts of trades in single stocks, futures, options etc. available somewhere for download or purchase? If not, which ways can you think of to gather it?
5
votes
6answers
616 views

Encyclopedia of Statistical Tests

I am aware of: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Encyclopedia of Technical Analysis. Question I'm wondering if there's something similar, but in the form of: "Encyclopedia of Statistical Backtesting ...
1
vote
1answer
237 views

normalized accumulation distribution

I am looking for a way to take an accumulation/distribution indicator and normalize it so I can compare a bunch of stocks with stock prices that have no relationship with each other. EDIT: This ...
2
votes
1answer
278 views

Average beta of index consitutents w.r.t. the index is 0.60

I have 1 year time series data of 300 constituents of the Australian All Ordinaries index (which is composed of 491 firms). The missing firms are mostly smaller firms. I run the market model $R_{it} ...
7
votes
3answers
5k views

Why does the adjusted closing price take into account dividends?

I'm trying to get an intuition as to why the adjusted closing price includes a dividend adjustment: \begin{equation} 1 - \frac{dividend}{close} \end{equation} I understand why the adjusted closing ...
2
votes
1answer
403 views

How would you hedge this structure?

I have a contingent claim and I want to find out what is the best structure to meet the continent claim, how to price it and how to hedge it. I am looking more for a qualitative answer. Suppose I ...
5
votes
1answer
3k views

Discrete returns versus log returns of assets

There have been similar posts here already but nevertheless I find the question worth posting: why do some people claim that log returns of assets are more suitable for statistics than discrete ...
5
votes
2answers
507 views

Using QuickFIX in a C project

QuickFIX is a well-known open-source implementation of the FIX protocol. This library has been ported to numerous languages, though for the moment I am concentrating the on C/C++ implementation. ...
2
votes
1answer
73 views

Accounting for Withdrawals

I am trying to wrap my head around the proper way to do this. I would like to simulate the portfolio value adjusted for inflation with a fixed withdrawal rate. To simulate withdrawal rate, I will ...
4
votes
2answers
866 views

Code for Evidence Based Technical Analysis

I recently purchased http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741 Is there an open source repository that contains (or contains as close as possible): ...

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