3
votes
2answers
95 views

How to Calculate a Monte Calo VaR estimation error

I'm performing a Monte Carlo to calculate value at risk (with a 3 dimension risk factor) Now, I would like to calculate the error of the estimation of the VaR with respect to the number of simulations ...
3
votes
1answer
113 views

what was the quant role in the 2008 crash?

this is a complex topic that interests me, have researched myself, & is debated heavily in the media and there is lots of writing, even entire books/documentaries. maybe somewhat surprisingly, ...
3
votes
0answers
154 views

How are quants able to verify whether their calculated prices are any good

This question is related to the discussion on Model Validation Criteria However it appeard to be very high level to me and I would like to go more into detail. Not working at a pricing desk the ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

How does buying back stock affect a company's credit spread?

How does buying back stock affect a company's credit spread? Would it cause it to get smaller? Any clarification would be appreciated.
3
votes
2answers
158 views

Price an option and find a replicating portfolio

I got stuck on the following question whilst learning about basic option pricing. A stock is valued at \$75 today. An option will pay \$1 the first time the stock reaches \$100 in value, which it ...
0
votes
3answers
204 views

What are some of the best quantitative finance websites? [closed]

Not looking to start a debate. Just want to learn more about the field and am looking for some websites with high quality, informative content.
0
votes
1answer
93 views

where can i get data for foreign exchange order flow

I need data for my thesis research on liquidity of foriegn exchange for order flow (aggregated daily) per currency traded for a period over the last 10-15 years. help!!
1
vote
2answers
88 views

Practical equity options pricing

To price a vanilla option, the following information are required : Strike price; Underlying price; Volatility; Maturity; Dividends rate; Repo rate; Interest rate; The strike, underlying price, ...
1
vote
2answers
197 views

Risk management of options

Your client would like to buy a digital call option. the digital call option pays the buyer in one years time (i.e at maturity ) N=1m SGD, if the SGD USD spot rate at maturity is above a prescribed ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

How to rightfully balance the share of the organization between departments after variable changes?

This is an abstracted version of the problem I'm facing and I have to tell you first, my question might not be precise and or even correct, so I hope you understand and in that case can improve the ...
2
votes
1answer
73 views

Summary statistic for the average probability of default?

I have the following scenario: Let $X_i$ denote the event where some institution $i$ 'defaults' (don't worry about the exact definition of a default here, it is not relevant to the question at hand). ...
2
votes
3answers
80 views

how to back out levels from a forecast of differenced series

I have a non-stationary series of bond yields $x_{t}$ that are logged and differenced $$y_{t}\equiv ln\left(x_{t}\right)-ln\left(x_{t-4}\right) $$ From that, I get a series of forecasted values ...
4
votes
0answers
75 views

Finding the dynamics of a dividend paying asset under arbitrary numeraire

Assuming I have a dividend paying asset $S$ with dividend process $D$. Now I would like to use the bank account process $B$ as numeraire and determine the dynamics of $S$ under the the corresponding ...
1
vote
1answer
139 views

Directional View of Volatility

What is an option strategy that someone could employ to simply go long/short volatility?? Assuming I want 0 delta(0 gamma if possible) risk in my option position, how do I take a directional view on ...
1
vote
2answers
112 views

why is the BNS model the way it is

what I am puzzled about is, why dont we instead of having \begin{equation} dX_t = \sqrt{V_t} dB_t - (\frac{1}{2} V_t^2-r-\lambda\Phi(\rho)) dt - \rho dZ_{\lambda t}\nonumber \end{equation} we just ...
0
votes
1answer
68 views

How do I simulate stock prices for a 10 asset portfolio, over a period of 10 years in MATLAB? [closed]

If I have given vectors for return and volatility (i.e. I have two 1x10 vectors), and I assume at first that their correlation is 0 (meaning my covariance-variance matrix is just diagonal), how do I ...
1
vote
2answers
87 views

Basket Option weight sensitivity calculation

I am looking to find/estimate the "greeks"/option price sensitivities/derivatives for a basket option situation. In specific the change in price of a put option associated with a change in weight of a ...
11
votes
0answers
159 views

Which interest rate model for which product

Given the multitude of existing interest rate models (ranging from simple to very complex) it would be interesting to know when the additional complexity actually makes sense. The models I have in ...
5
votes
1answer
78 views

Model calibration to illiquid assets when pricing options with long maturities

Let us assume one is interested in pricing an option with a very long maturity (up to 20 or 30 years) on a liquid underlying. The market won't have liquid quotes for the higher maturities. Still you ...
1
vote
1answer
100 views

binary tree options pricing model with dividend value - How should I discount the option at?

the expected value of the option given the next period up, down values is: $ Pexp = (p Price_{next, up} + (1 - p) Price_{next, down})/R$ where p is defined as $p = \frac{\exp(-r \times \Delta t) - ...
0
votes
0answers
66 views

Hull's method for the optimal hedge ratio: why?

To illustrate my question, let's assume that the owner of one unit of asset (unit spot price variable S) needs to sell this asset at time T in the future. In order to hedge against a possible fall ...
4
votes
1answer
61 views

Korean Bond futures market: is there a fundamental difference between 3yrs, 5yrs and 10yrs contracts?

I would like to model Korean government bond futures. So far I know two concepts (just a short, incomplete description) cash-settled futures (e.g. Australia): The average yield of a basket of bonds ...
0
votes
0answers
48 views

Realized volatility Create index from individual stock data?

I am about to estimate realized volatility on high frequent stocks. I am aware of the implications of the model (e.g. microstructure etc.) But what I dont know is how I can create an index to estimate ...
2
votes
2answers
118 views

What information about the stochastic process is available from path-dependent options?

Assume the stock follows a process, which is defined by the following stochastic differential equation $$\frac{dS}{S}=r(t)dt+\sigma(S,t)dW,$$ so that the stock price process has local volatility. ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Why are short expiries associated with more pronounced volatility skews?

I've noticed that for a given strike price, the shorter expiration dates of options have more pronounced volatilities why is that?
1
vote
1answer
89 views

Interpolating spot rates given intermittent coupon-bond prices.

I'm trying to bootstrap spot rates given coupon-paying bond data. To simplify my problem, assume we are working with only 3 given data, the price/coupon rate on semi-annual bonds maturing in 0.5, 1, ...
0
votes
1answer
60 views

I want to keep a column in getSymbols or get.hist.quote with the Date as as.Date format [closed]

I use getSymbols to download historical information over an environment with 200 tickers but I cannot seem to keep the date information from becoming an index. I ...
4
votes
1answer
64 views

The distribution of jump gaps for Levy processes

Assume $X_{t}$ is a Levy process with triplet $(\sigma^{2}, \lambda, \nu)$, here $\nu$ is the Levy measure of $X_{t}$. Define $\tau_{1},\tau_{2},\dots$ be the time gap between the successive jumps ...
0
votes
1answer
71 views

Can we model components in a set of multivariate multi-period time-series data?

There are N data sets in periods occurring weekly/monthly, across a 10-year historical timeline. In each period, five dates are observed (labelled a to e), where a denotes the day the period ...
2
votes
1answer
165 views

How to replicate this option?

I have a question I am not sure how to approach: Suppose interest rates is 50%, a stock worth \$1 today can be worth \$2, \$1, \$0.5 next year. If the option that pays \$1 only when S = \$2 is ...
-1
votes
2answers
82 views

What is the most amount of money the consumer would be willing to pay to play take this gamble?

Suppose a consumer has log-utility over wealth, defined by $u(W) = \ln(W)$. Suppose this consumer has $100$, and is considering taking a gamble in which the consumer flips a coin, and gets $20$ she ...
3
votes
1answer
77 views

Attributing the change in NII to Shift, Twist and Butterfly

The movement of the zero rate curves can be decomposed into a shift movement (the level of interest rates) and a twist movement (the slope of the curve) and butterfly (the curvature of the curve). If ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Estimate the effect of a buy order on stock price

If a stock is having ask = 100$ for 100 shares Ask size, and I put a buy market order for 1000 shares, is there an approach to estimate that this buy order will move up the stock price by what %? I ...
2
votes
3answers
158 views

Is it wrong to use 'real world' probabilities for option valuation?

Is it wrong to use 'real world' probabilities for option valuation, even when the market is not liquid enough to delta hedge the option? My instinct is that it is wrong, because the time value of ...
3
votes
1answer
93 views

Calibrating Hull-White using volatility data

I would like to calibrate Hull-White model using volatility data.I am using [Park (2004)] paper as a reference. He suggests to minimize the following objective function: where the first term is ...
0
votes
1answer
67 views

Change of order size

For example I am put a limit order of size 10 at top bid. moments later, my algorithm detects we should have size of 50 here. So we request a update on this order. My question is, will we lose the ...
0
votes
0answers
33 views

Issuing bonds at discount - computing effective interest rate

Suppose Southwest Airlines issued 100,000 USD of 9%, 5-year bonds when the market interest rate is 10%. The market price of the bonds drops, and Southwest receives $96,149. First of all, in my ...
8
votes
2answers
414 views

Is it possible to understand financial theory without mathematics?

I am trying to develop a short course on financial theory, covering the fundamentals of forward and options pricing, and 'efficient market' theory. I want to reduce the amount of mathematics to a ...
2
votes
2answers
98 views

Lower bound of ITM Calls when computing Implied Volatility

Assuming the Black Scholes model and pricing formula of a European call option. Then, if the call is ITM, i.e. if $ln(\frac{S}{K})>0$, the $d_1$-term will go towards infinity as $\sigma$ goes to ...
0
votes
1answer
94 views

Estimate the market maker's price from the posted Bid/Ask and Trade price

If I see a Bid at 181.77 and and Ask at 181.78 for SPY and then immediately see a trade filled at 181.77 on BATS, then what can we conclude about market making activity? i.e At what price did the ...
3
votes
0answers
79 views

Reasoning for Bloomberg's short rate volatilty calculation

Bloomberg, in its documentation, explains that it calculates the short rate volatility for its Hull White implementation by multiplying the e.g. 10y IRS rate (divided by 100) by the 10y cap vol. Why? ...
0
votes
0answers
72 views

Stock Price Question

Can anyone show me how to answer this please? A stock has beta of 2.0 and stock specific daily volatility of 0.04. Suppose that yesterday’s closing price was 95 and today the market goes up by 3%. ...
3
votes
3answers
193 views

Is the number of outstanding shares a stationary series?

I'm doing a panel data analysis where the log of the freefloat number of outstanding shares is one of the explanatory variables, but it fails the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Person Phillips unit root ...
2
votes
3answers
181 views

Simulating the short rate in the Hull-White model

What is the best way to simulate the short rate $r(t)$ in a simple one factor Hull White process? Suppose I have $$ dr(t) = (\theta(t)-\alpha r(t))dt+\sigma dW_t $$ where $\theta(t)$ is calibrated ...
4
votes
2answers
167 views

Is there any academic material regarding robust optimization with fixed transaction costs?

I'm looking to piece together a robust optimization model that handles robust optimization with fixed transaction costs and other combinatorial variables (e.g. asset count constraints). Here's what ...
1
vote
1answer
77 views

Volatility calculation for intra-day cash-or-nothing call binary option

Firstly, I do not have a quant finance background. This is new to me, and I imagine that this is a basic question for this group. I am calculating the price of a binary/digital option with ...
4
votes
1answer
110 views

Derivation of the Stochastic Vol PDE

I'm trying to follow the derivation of the stochastic vol pde for an option price - as given in Gatheral (The vol surface), Wilmott on Quant Finance and many other places. As usual one starts off with ...
1
vote
1answer
68 views

Is it illegal for a publicly traded company to publish inaccurate financial data?

If you are the book keeper for a publicly traded company and you misrepresent the financial earnings of the company (even if by accident) for an earnings quarter, is this illegal?
3
votes
1answer
43 views

Why does my posterior mean differs from Idzorek's results?

I have implemented two different expressions (Idzorek p.6, Walters p.51) of a posterior mean return calculation within a Black-Litterman framework. My results are the same, irrespective of the ...
4
votes
3answers
242 views

Papers and algorithms on bidding schemes for best order execution?

I'm building an automated option trading bot that executes common options multi-leg strategies (straddles, spreads) and I want to learn the best way to execute my orders. As you know, the bid-ask ...

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