1
vote
3answers
8k views

Kalman Filter Equity Example

I am looking out for some material where I can study about Kalman Filter applied to Equity using Excel or R?
2
votes
1answer
215 views

Risk management insurance (Solvency II / MaRisk)

I have a few different questions on topics involving an doing risk management in life insurance. If someone could shed some light on these issues, I would be very thankful. a) How does an actuary do ...
3
votes
0answers
99 views

Estimating two normal random numbers with one equation

Subtitle: Estimating the correlation of the shocks driving two commodities in two multi-factor models I am fitting two 2-factor models to electricity and gas futures, respectively. In order to ...
3
votes
1answer
269 views

Is it possible to model general wrong way risk via concentration risk?

General wrong way risk (GWWR) is defined as due to a positive correlation between the level of exposure and the default probability of the counterparty, due to general market factors. (Specific wrong ...
2
votes
2answers
736 views

Forex ECN for Algorithmic Trading

I'm looking for a forex brokerage that allows me to: add limit orders to the order book and trade against other clients However, when I look at the looks of fxcm, alpari, robofx, ... it appears all ...
2
votes
3answers
1k views

What advanced statistical techniques are quant researchers using? [closed]

Some time ago I was talking to a representative of one of the leading quantitative hedge funds. We talked about recruitment and the following had me stunned: The representative explained that they ...
0
votes
3answers
259 views

Profit estimation with a dice: 10 dollars for 6, -1 dollar for anything else

I recently found the following question: What is your profit estimate throwing a dice in the long run if you get 10 dollars for each time you hit 6 and lose 1 dollar for any other number? I tried to ...
6
votes
2answers
920 views

What is the average stock price under the Bachelier model?

Let's say stock price follows following process: $$dS(t) = \sigma dW(t)$$ where $W(t)$ is Standard Brownian motion. The initial level for the stock is $S(0)$. Define the average of stock price ...
6
votes
2answers
532 views

Why are regressors squared and not ^1.5 or ^2.2 or ^2.5?

When a researcher in economics or finance wants to apply a linear regression model but suspects a non-linear relationship between one of the regressors and the dependent variable, it is typical to ...
8
votes
2answers
369 views

GBM 3d plot with R

I want to plot the density of the GBM in a 3d plot. So I have on one axis the stock price, on the other the time and on the z axis the density. At the end I want to produce this graph. The formula I ...
3
votes
0answers
326 views

How does one estimate theta in the Ho-Lee model from a yield curve?

I have a yield curve constructed using linear interpolation with data points every 3-months for US treasuries. I would like to use that calibrate a Ho-Lee model, but I can't wrap my head around how ...
4
votes
5answers
905 views

How to improve the Black-Scholes framework?

Since the distribution of daily returns are obviously not lognormal, my bottom line question is has BS been reworked for a better fitting distribution? Google searches give me nada. The best dist ...
-4
votes
1answer
1k views

Is there a piratebay for data(bases)? (here, talking about historical financial data) [closed]

I would like to, for example, access (and later, upload), for example, historical financial data for the S&P500. If a piratebay for databases existed, maybe we could freely share information that ...
2
votes
1answer
241 views

desk's performance

I need your point of view in evaluating the monthly performance of a desk. I have the daily credit risk capital requirement (A); the net banking income or GNP (B). What is the best measure of ...
4
votes
1answer
470 views

Bootstrapping first, then data mine?

I posted this on Cross Validated a month ago, but I didn't get any answers. Sorry for the second post! I'm wondering about the whole process of testing/data-mining for a strategy and THEN testing on ...
1
vote
1answer
683 views

What are current interest rates on senior/junior/mezzanine loans for e.g. real estate developers?

For a case study I have to work on for a university course, about a real-estate-development project, I need to simulate the financing with different proportions of equity (40%), senior loan (35%), ...
3
votes
3answers
998 views

Treasury Bond Yield Curves in R

Does anyone know if I can access interest rates series from the treasury using R? I tried yahoo! Finance and it doesn't seem to have this kind of information.
4
votes
1answer
499 views

Black-Scholes American Put Option

Here is my question: This is a question about Black-Scholes model, but it may be applicable to more complicated models. Throughout the discussion, the strike price $K$, interest rate $r$ and ...
10
votes
3answers
228 views

Does entropy pooling apply to distributions with time-varying drift?

I have a returns process that is drawn from a normal distribution with a nonlinear time-varying drift, so I was wondering if the entropy pooling method still applies or if I need an invariant ?
1
vote
1answer
391 views

Is making a bid/ask offer a good way to lower the spreads?

I have written an algorithmic trading program which relies heavily on low spreads in the 0.1-0.3 PIP region. I was now wondering if it would be a good idea to place bid/ask offers instead of limit ...
2
votes
0answers
80 views

Changes to option valuation for dollar-pegged underlying

In Russia, options on futures on the RTS index are priced in points instead of currency, with points being directly related to the value of the US dollar such that, for example, if the dollar rises, ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

How do I estimate the parameters of an MA(q) process?

It is relatively easy to estimate the parameters of an autoregressive $AR(p)$ process. How do I do with a moving average $MA(q)$ process?
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Why do ATM call options have a delta of slightly bigger than 0.5 and not 0.5 exactly?

From the formula of the delta of a call option, i.e. $N(d1)$, where $d_1 = \frac{\mathrm{ln}\frac{S(t)}{K} + (r + 0.5\sigma^2)(T-t)}{\sigma\sqrt{T-t}}$, the delta of an ATM spot call option is ...
3
votes
2answers
513 views

How to calculate discounted inflation and growth?

Given the nominal bond yield and the inflation index bond yield (earning yield), how would one calculate the discounted inflation rate (discounted earning growth rates)? These two factor seems to ...
2
votes
2answers
174 views

Pricing forward contract on a stock

Please tell me where I've gone wrong (if I did in fact make a mistake). I'm pricing a long forward on a stock. The usual setup applies: This has payoff $S(T) - K$ at time $T$. We are at $t$ now. ...
1
vote
0answers
199 views

Pricing a Power Contract derivative security

I'm trying to price a "power contract" and would appreciate guidance on the next step. The payoff at time $T$ is $(S(T)/K)^\alpha$, where $K > 0$, $\alpha \in \mathbb{N}$, $T > 0$. $S$ is ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

How to make the final Interpretation of PCA?

I have question regarding final loading of data back to original variables. So for example: I have 10 variable from a,b,c....j using returns for last 300 days i got return matrix of 300 X 10. ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

How to simulate a Merton Jump Diffusion process?

I am talking about the Merton Jump Diffusion model, on this page, where they give the following formula: $$ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t + (\eta-1) dq$$ where $W_t$ is a standard brownian ...
1
vote
2answers
245 views

Absolute Dollar Form Of Kelly Criterion

Is there a absolute dollar form of the Kelly equation $f=\frac{m}{s^2}$? (i.e. one that does not use percent returns).
11
votes
3answers
2k views

When does delta hedging result in more risk?

There's a question in an interview book saying "when can hedging an options position make you take on more risk?" The answer provided is that "Hedging can increase your risk if you are forced to both ...
1
vote
0answers
210 views

How to calculate a the PFE for a Swaption?

How do you calculate the Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for a swaption? Do you incorporate the dynamics of implied volatility when you are running your simulations? Is there a standard way to ...
2
votes
2answers
3k views

How to Delta Hedge with Futures?

The theory of delta hedging a short position in an option is based on trades in the stock and cash, i.e. I get the option premium and take positions in the stock and cash. In the classical ...
8
votes
4answers
920 views

How to simulate stock prices using variance gamma process?

I want to simulate stock prices with the variance gamma process. The model is given by: $S_T=S_0 e^{ {[}(r-1)T + \omega + z{]}} $ where $S_0= $ starting value $T= $ Time ...
1
vote
1answer
443 views

Performance Stats of Pairs Trades

This is something I've been thinking about for a while but I can't reach a clear conclusion. When we calculate, for example, the profit factor for a pairs trading strategy, do we treat each pairs ...
11
votes
3answers
13k views

How to simulate stock prices with a Geometric Brownian Motion?

I want to simulate stock price paths with different stochastic processes. I started with the famous geometric brownian motion. I simulated the values with the following formula: ...
2
votes
0answers
167 views

Measure change in a bond option problem

This is not a homework or assignment exercise. I'm trying to evaluate $\displaystyle \ \ I := E_\beta \big[\frac{1}{\beta(T_0)} K \mathbf{1}_{\{B(T_0,T_1) > K\}}\big]$, where $\beta$ is the ...
2
votes
1answer
131 views

Question on OptionMetrics: when are adjustments for discrete dividends needed?

Bakshi et. al. (1997) analyzes the empirical performance of some alternative option pricing models. I am interested to do this as well - hence applying different models - but I am unsure how to handle ...
4
votes
1answer
431 views

Calculating portfolio VaR for (custom) leveraged products

I have been searching online for a few days regarding how to calculate portfolio VaR for a portfolio consisting of leveraged products - but so far, I have not been able to come up with anything ...
6
votes
5answers
959 views

portfolio optimization from empirical return distributions

I'd like to do a portfolio optimization of a set of ETF's but want to avoid traditional problems with normality assumptions in returns etc. Are there techniques that let me sample 'draws' from the ...
3
votes
2answers
462 views

When gains are made: Overnight or during trading hours? What is the connection to volatility?

Falkenblog reports an interesting finding: All of the stock returns since 1993 are from overnight returns and cross-sectionally, volatility receives a positive overnight risk premium, a negative ...
6
votes
3answers
281 views

What is the canonical reference for Minimum Variance Portfolio's uniqueness?

I am writing a white paper in which I am trying to compare a strategy to different well-known - and classic - asset allocation optimization approaches. One of the methods I chose is the minimum ...
-2
votes
1answer
106 views

Proxy for a trigonometric angle function [closed]

You can't calculate an actual/real angle with the sine function with discrete market data. I need a substitute value for inputs that require an angle value. If you're only calculating the angle ...
0
votes
1answer
4k views

What does “Inst. Own” mean on Google Finance, and how can AOL be 103% “Inst. Own”'d?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAOL&ei=yZCpUODEMsKqqgHPzQE Previously, I assumed "Inst. Owned" meant the percentage of the company's stock that was owned by the company (viz. not ...
7
votes
1answer
723 views

Why would a trader quickly flicker an order immediately preceding a tick away?

The Setup Assume the inside market is $15.15 \times 15.16$ and there is a very large bid order imbalance. For example, 30,000 shares bid across 100+ orders, 200 shares offered across 1 order; ...
7
votes
3answers
637 views

Why is random trading minus transaction costs not zero expected value?

Somebody was telling me that if you buy randomly and assuming no transaction costs in todays market place, you wont make money 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time because of adverse selection. Im ...
1
vote
1answer
200 views

Missing factor in the factor model

I am developing a factor model to predict monthly returns. One of the factors alone accounts for an R squared of 0.3 to 0.4 for many single periods that has surprised me. However, for some periods ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Does mean reverting imply mean stationary?

If I have a time series that exhibits mean reverting properties, does it necessarily mean that the time series is mean stationary?
3
votes
2answers
3k views

What kind of return can an average algorithmic trading firm achieve today?

What kind of rate of return can an average, equities-focused algorithmic trading firm expect to achieve today? I come from a background of control and optimization, working in the industry in China, ...
1
vote
4answers
414 views

Proof that the number of trades done (successfully) matters for whether or not a strategy was lucky

Me and a friend is trying to settle and argument in relation to the following quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: I don’t want to spend too much time on Buffett. George Soros has 2 million times more ...
2
votes
3answers
340 views

Why is the CAPM securities market line straight?

Let $\gamma$ be the expected return, in terms of its exponential growth rate, of the market asset. If we set $\gamma=\mu-\sigma^2/2$ as explained by the Doléans-Dade exponential, then the expected ...

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