10
votes
5answers
1k views

Monte carlo methods for vanilla european options and Ito's lemma.

I understand that by applying Ito's lemma to the following SDE $$dX=\mu\,X\,dt+\sigma\,X\,dW$$ one obtains a solution to the above SDE which is as follows: $${X}\left( t\right) =\mathrm{X}\left( ...
9
votes
1answer
417 views

Fixed income modeling

I am currently working on my research paper and trying to explain a two-dimensional variable: volume and instrument of corporate debt financing. Independent variables that I believe must be included ...
2
votes
0answers
621 views

Hobbyist Quants [closed]

I'm interested in investing some money in the stock market, and I have the math background that will make following the math used in quantitative finance possible (with some work). What are the ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

How should I estimate the implied volatility skew term when calculating the skew-adjusted delta?

I'm trying to come up with the implied volatility skew adjusted delta for SPY options. I'm working with the following formula: Skew Adjusted Delta = Black Scholes Delta + Vega * Vol Skew Slope. I ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

How to estimate a multivariate GJR or TARCH model in Eviews?

How do I specify the GARCH/TARCH equation in Eviews 6 in the variance regressors frame, if I want to find out whether there are volatilty spillovers from stock markets A and B to stock market C? P.S. ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the unit of the Distance to Default measure?

I read in a book that the distance to default of a company is "2.978". Can anyone please tell me what is the unit implied behind this measure? Are they "years" for instance?
3
votes
1answer
187 views

Is it possible to estimate the correlation between an equity and its IV, purely from its IV skew?

If we know the options Implied Volatility (IV) skew for an equity, is it possible to calculate the probability of the equity moving, given a move in the IV? We can define IV skew as the difference ...
11
votes
1answer
2k views

How do I compare implied and historic volatility?

what would you suggest are the starting points for comparing, in an easy, visual way, implied and delivered volatility surfaces? I'd like to see what the differences are between the historic surfaces, ...
4
votes
2answers
452 views

Debunking risk premium via “hedging” argument? (or why even in the real world $\mu$ should equal $r$)

Since I began thinking about portfolio optimization and option pricing, I've struggled to get an intuition for the risk premium, i.e. that investors are only willing to buy risky instruments when they ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

What API methods are there to determine a company's market cap?

I'm wondering what API methods there are to determine a company's market cap, i.e. (number of shares issued) * (price per share). I know IQfeed and perhaps Yahoo will do this - does anyone know of ...
7
votes
2answers
835 views

Is duration additive? $C_{newDur}=A_{fundDur}w_{a} + B_{fundDur}w_{b}$?

Suppose quantified duration (like Macaulay duration with changing intervals) $Dur = \frac{\sum t_{i} PV_{i}}{\sum PV_{i}}$ and two funds having durations $D_{a}$ and $D_{b}$. You own them in the ...
27
votes
3answers
8k views

How can we reverse engineer a market-making algorithm (HFT)?

Consider a market participant $A$ who is mechanically following an automated liquidity providing algorithm (HFT) in a number of large cap stocks on a specific exchange. Assume furthermore that we are ...
8
votes
3answers
680 views

How do I eliminate developed currency funding cross rate risk in an EMFX position?

Back in the "old days" (ie 5-10 years ago) when we wanted to be long or short an emerging currency (say the ZAR, BRL, or TRY) we simply did everything against the pre-eminent currency of the day, the ...
8
votes
4answers
1k views

How do I estimate the joint probability of stock B moving, if stock A moves?

I have two stocks, A and B, that are correlated in some way. If I know (hypothetically) that stock A has a 60% chance of rising tomorrow, and I know the joint probability between stocks A and B, how ...
7
votes
1answer
625 views

If stock A has a 60% chance of rising, and stocks A and B have 80% correlation, what is the chance of stock B rising?

As in the subject, I'm interested in a math puzzle of sorts: If stock A has a 60% chance of rising, and stocks A and B have an 80% correlation, what is the chance of stock B rising? Would it be ...
9
votes
2answers
1k views

How to simulate slippage

I'm backtesting a trading strategy, using free OHLC data from yahoo or google. I'm simulating friction by lopping a flat percentage (say 0.5%) off my returns for each day that I make a trade. Whats ...
6
votes
3answers
3k views

R code for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Can any one help me with some R code to run Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?
9
votes
1answer
430 views

How to estimate the covariance of an index with a basket of stocks?

What would be an ideal way to estimate the covariance of an index with a basket of stocks? For example, should I use one-tail ANOVA test or an individual stock & index F-test?
5
votes
2answers
213 views

Question about equations and risk factors.

Say I have two risk factors $X_1$ and $X_2$. Standard deviation for $X_1$ is $\sigma_1$ and $\sigma_2$ for $X_2$. Furthermore, $X_1$ has a mean of $\mu_1$ and $X_2$ has a mean of $\mu_2$. Correlation ...
3
votes
1answer
888 views

Linear combination of gaussian random variables

I know what random variables are but I don't understand what a linear combination of gaussian random variables is. Can anyone please give me an explanation or clues? Thanks in advance, Julien.
2
votes
2answers
3k views

How do I estimate convergence in monte carlo methods?

I am experimenting with Monte Carlo methods. I'd like to measure/estimate convergence with a graph/chart. How do I do that? Can anyone please direct me to relevant documentation/links or even give me ...
1
vote
1answer
38 views

CFTC CPO Exemptions

What are the exceptions set by the CFTC which exempt Commodity Pool Operators (CPO) from registering as such?
7
votes
2answers
317 views

How to generalize the Vickrey auction for two-sided trading?

I want to try out the Vickrey auction for a project of mine, but I'm not sure that I understand it completely. The thing is that I have several consumers and several providers trading one resource ...
5
votes
1answer
229 views

Modeling liquidity effect on option prices

What are practically useful ways of modelling the effect of liquidity on options?
5
votes
2answers
452 views

S&P 500 list of stocks since 1960

I am looking for the S&P 500 index list of stocks for each day since January 1, 1960. Does anyone know where I can find these lists?
3
votes
1answer
504 views

Basel II modelling vs Solvency II modelling?

How do the two modelling frameworks compare? I spent some time developing PD LGD and EAD models for banking portfolios... But I never did insurance modelling project which I suspect is based on ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

Mean Reversion Time Frame

I am running a mean reversion strategy. I have question with regards to half-life; I have heard of OU process to determine the high life but it's not giving me the kind of result. Can any one ...
5
votes
7answers
2k views

Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?

I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics: Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling Any pointers ...
16
votes
2answers
2k views

Do you have historical tick data you want to donate?

Do you have historical market/pricing ticket data that you would like to donate to the Open Source Trader project (OST)?? Please: upload your files! Once we gather some data, we'll do our best to ...
6
votes
4answers
724 views

How to hedge against lack of volatility

Say you have a trading system that works best when markets are most volatile. What would be the best way to hedge against lack of volatility ? For example, 2008, 2009 was highly volatile and it has ...
5
votes
1answer
519 views

Tradable Volatility

VIX (spot) has very nice features, including mean reversion. We all know that we can't trade VIX (spot). The closest we can get is using front-month future contracts. The problem I have with that is ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

Order submission strategies of a rational market maker?

Consider a market maker that has decided to try to make a round-trip trade in stock A in order to capture the bid-ask spread. Assume furthermore that he has no current inventory in the stock A. To ...
4
votes
5answers
4k views

Utility to download historical Implied Volatility data from Interactive Brokers?

Does anyone know of a utility that can download historical Implied Volatility (IV) data from Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstation?
1
vote
2answers
813 views

Whats the equation to calculate the area under the curve of a normal distribution, given an upper and lower standard deviation?

Lets say I want to find out the area under the graph of normal distribution curve, between X1=standard deviation of -0.5 and X2 = standard deviation of 0.5. Is there a formula for this? Case study: ...
3
votes
3answers
489 views

If I have a model that gives 10% “probability edge” over random chance, how do I calculate the position size?

Lets say that I have an imaginary model that always gives me a 10% edge over straight 50/50 odds, one day in advance, for an index (i.e. 60% chance of winning / 40% chance of losing). How would I ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

A generic limit order book: What are the most important queries it should be able to answer?

Assume a class LimitOrderBook which represents a limit order book in a trading system. To be able to represent the limit order book a data handler reads a feed ...
3
votes
3answers
3k views

Monthly data for popular indices (constituents).

Trying to be concise: I am interested in the most popular indices (SP500, FTSE100, DAX30, CAC40, SMI30, etc). For each index I want to know its constituents in a monthly basis. For each constituent ...
9
votes
5answers
3k views

Earnings and valuation data sources online

Are there any free/cheap sources for historical data on company earnings and valuations? I can get historical price data from Google and Yahoo, and it looks like I can get about five years of ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Mass Market Data Source

My current project requires large amounts of historical and real-time market data (1m or 5m bars for various products, mostly US futures for as far back as available). This data will be analyzed by ...
6
votes
3answers
926 views

Lib for Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of Implied Volatility Surface?

I'm looking for an implementation of Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of the Implied Volatility Surface - Matthias R. Fengler. Does anyone know of any existing libraries that have implemented this paper? Any ...
6
votes
2answers
977 views

Recommendation for a library to calculate the local volatility surface?

I'd like a library to calculate the options local volatility surface, i.e. the options implied volatility surface for a collection of strikes and their bid/ask prices. Here are the libraries I've ...
8
votes
1answer
2k views

How to calculate the local volatility surface using QuantLib?

I'd like to calculate the local volatility surface for a series of option strikes, similar to the surface described in this paper: http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/gs-local_volatility_surface.pdf ...
7
votes
1answer
480 views

Modified Durations of Different Noncallable Bonds and function of Maturity

I'm hoping someone could help me understand this subject better. Basically I am reading a book and it shows a table ...
5
votes
1answer
185 views

Reliable Economic Data on China

Trying to develop a new strategy, but I need to find reliable economic data on China. It's well known that the official figures there don't tell you everything (to put it nicely), so I was wondering ...
8
votes
2answers
1k views

Algorithm for the choice of stocks for a equity scalper/market maker to engage in?

Assume a scalper/market maker who is operating on an exchange with $N$ stocks with different characteristics such as current market value, average bid-ask spread, average daily volume and historical ...
3
votes
1answer
428 views

How do I get the average transition matrix for three consecutive years?

I have a one year transition matrix for three consecutive years. Multiplying these three matrices together yields the three year transition matrix. I want to obtain the average transition matrix for ...
17
votes
7answers
6k views

Why is volatility mean-reverting?

We all know it does mean revert. The question is why. What's making volatility mean-revert? Is it some sort of cyclical behaviour of option traders? The way it's calculated? Why?
11
votes
7answers
2k views

Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book.

Recently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer. After I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that ...
5
votes
1answer
182 views

How to scale option pricing components in regard to time

I am looking at closed-form options approximations, in particular the Bjerksund-Stensland model. I have run into a very basic question. How should I scale the input variables in regard to time? My ...
5
votes
1answer
217 views

How are dual class shares different from non dual class shares from a market makers' perspective?

Assume a stock Foo with a single share class. Furthermore, assume a dual class stock Bar with classes I and II with different voting rights. The shares in the different classes have equal cash flow ...

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