9
votes
2answers
727 views

How to compute performance attribution between daily rebalanced strategies?

I have a daily rebalanced portfolio of several strategies. After one month, I now want to attribute the performance to the different strategies. There are several ways to do it. For instance one ...
9
votes
3answers
1k views

Maximization of CARA utility function: unique solution with an unbounded parameter?

An investor at time $t_0$ can invest his wealth $w_0$ in a risky asset $x$ for an amount $a$ and the remain part in the riskless asset $w_0-a$. At the end of the period $t_1$, the investor will ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

How to simulate correlated assets for illustrating portfolio diversification?

I have seen multiple instances where people try to explain the diversification effects of having assets with a certain level of correlation, especially in the "most diversified portfolio" literature. ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the best way to forecast prepayment rate in an emerging market mortgage loan portfolio?

I constructed a model to forecast the prepayment rates for a mortgage loan portfolio (of mortgages in an emerging market) using probit regression on factors such as loan-to-value, PTI, time from ...
7
votes
2answers
714 views

How to manage equity portfolio risk intraday?

Lets assume that I have an equity strategy that generates signals intraday to buy and sell. I run this strategy across the SP500 names. Now within my strategy I want to incorporate a method to help me ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Home/hobbyist quant trading - possible to profitable or just an intellectual hobby? [closed]

I've been researching algorithmic (non discretionary) trading at the several-day to month timescale, i.e. not HFT. I am not interested in voodoo i.e. no technical analysis, I am looking for solid ...
27
votes
12answers
12k views

Why does the minimum variance portfolio provide good returns?

I've been a researching minimum variance portfolios (from this link) and find that by building MVPs adding constraints on portfolio weights and a few other tweaks to the methods outlined I get ...
12
votes
3answers
6k views

R: How feasible is it to store — and work with — tick data in a database connected to R?

I'm looking to convert some tickdata .csv files into a database on a local disk and then use R to call the data and do my various analytics and modelling. What are some best practices / ...
-1
votes
2answers
901 views

A gentle introduction to cointegration [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: What is the intuition behind cointegration? Although having a postgrad degree in mathematics, I haven't used any maths 'in anger' for quite a few years now, so I am ...
2
votes
1answer
419 views

Is there a measure for the 'degree' of cointegration

Is there a standard (or maybe even intuitive?) way of ranking pairs of cointegrated time series so that one could make statements like the following: ...
9
votes
1answer
319 views

What drives changes in implied volatility on ETFs/ETNs?

I thought implied volatility, as well as the VIX, primarily increase due to increases in the underlying asset's volatility, as well as the options themselves being bid up because more people were ...
6
votes
1answer
692 views

How to run an asset replication regression?

I am doing extensive research on portfolio replication and was hoping to get some help with some problems I am encountering. I am running a regression between 2 assets that I believe replicate ...
2
votes
3answers
996 views

How to model the daily return using intraday data?

Say, I have hourly returns $r_1,r_2,...,r_T$, where $r_t$ = $ln(p_t)$ - $ln(p_0)$ for $t = 1...T$. So what is the value of $E[r_t]$? Would $r_T$ be the $\prod{(r_t)}$? Basically $r_t$s are the ...
7
votes
4answers
2k views

How to obtain true probabilities from Black-Scholes?

How to obtain true probabilities from Black-Scholes option pricing equation? Suppose, that we know risk adjusted discount rate for the underlying asset (the drift term in the physical measure) and ...
0
votes
1answer
1k views

what is the best way to calculate the probability of an equity option ending in the money?

Given historical implied volatility and all other know variables (stock price, option strike price, option expiration date, dividend rate, interest rate) what is the best way to calculate the ...
6
votes
1answer
139 views

Should we apply practical constraints on the distribution of monte carlo paths?

to limit interest rate paths to a 'reasonable' range (if we could define reasonable). Now we calibrate log-normal skew and mean reversion monthly to robust basket of atm swaptions and in and out ...
15
votes
2answers
1k views

From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
6
votes
2answers
498 views

Demonstration of Ito's correction term/lemma in binomial tree

I am preparing an undergraduate QuantFinance lecture. I want to demonstrate the ideas of Ito's correction term and Ito's lemma in the most accessible manner. My idea is to take the "working horse" of ...
10
votes
8answers
2k views

Has spectrum analysis ever been used successfully to analyse historical price data?

Spectrum analysis is often used to analyse waveforms. A common configuration, for example, is to create a graph where X is time, Y is frequency, and the brightness of each position represents ...
1
vote
0answers
411 views

How to calculate time-segmented volume? [closed]

amibrokers has this calculation for TSV: ...
5
votes
1answer
477 views

What is the correct procedure to choose the lag when preforming Johansen cointegration test?

When preforming Johansen cointegration test for 2 time series (the simple case) you need to decide the lag you want to use. Doing the test for different lag levels returns different results: for some ...
5
votes
1answer
261 views

RMT (Random Matrix Theory) issue with callibrating MP distribution -

I am seeing an issue when callibrating an MP distribution. Assume a log return series for the SP500 with the following dimensions dim(xts.sp500.ret.stocksonly) ==> [1] 1133 478 ...
7
votes
3answers
719 views

Does random matrix theory (RMT) for returns' correlation matrices apply if there are high correlations?

Steps to replicate: Take the correlation matrix of a sample of stocks in the SP500, or a set of ETF's that are include some that are highly correlated (0.7 and above). Problem observed: I observe ...
10
votes
1answer
1k views

How to use macroeconomic indicators for long/short trading strategies?

I am trying to understand how to use macroeconomic data in my trading. I understand that using such data could be used to gauge an overall view of the market and how it's doing as a whole. I have been ...
5
votes
1answer
501 views

Can duration gap analysis be applied to mortgages?

Can a mortgage loan be treated like a bond and its duration calculated using the bond duration formula? More precisely, can I calculate the loan portfolio duration for duration gap analysis, with ...
3
votes
1answer
894 views

How does “time segmented volume” differ from on-balance volume?

Worden Brothers Inc. advertise a proprietary indicator called Time Segmented Volume. This gizmo seems closely to resemble On Balance Volume. Is there any reason to think that TSV might yield a more ...
2
votes
2answers
857 views

Can we replicate a call option without borrowing and make it cheaper in this way?

I learned how to price a European call option using this video lecture. The considered case is very simple. The call option gives the right to buy 100 Euros for 100 Dollars in one month from now. The ...
8
votes
1answer
457 views

Any research paper on stop loss?

Has there been any rigorous study on stop loss ? When to apply it? Has it been shown to work through proper statistical backtests? I am interested in Equities, preferably European stocks.
11
votes
3answers
666 views

What benchmark/index to use for backtesting a portfolio of stock options?

What benchmark should I use for backtesting a model for when I should buy an option of a particular stock? For equities, one could say their portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. I would like to ...
13
votes
5answers
3k views

What C++ math libraries are typically used by quants?

Before you mark question as off-topic, please read it - it is, actually, quant-related. Basically, I'm working on an app that spits out a lot of C++ math. When it comes to simple things like ...
7
votes
1answer
443 views

What is the optimal strategy when there is an equal chance for gain or loss but the size of the potential gain is larger?

I'm investigating a situation where the chance for gain or loss is the same, but the amount gained is greater than the amount that is lost. For example, the gain would be about 30% of the trade ...
9
votes
1answer
646 views

One dimensional analog of cleansing a correlation matrix via random matrix theory

The general idea of cleansing a correlation matrix via random matrix theory is to compare its eigenvalues to that of a random one to see which parts of it are beyond normal randomness. These are then ...
2
votes
0answers
176 views

Can a higher P/E ratio be beneficial under certain circumstances? [closed]

I am new to investing. I understand that the P/E ratio along with other data can be used to determine whether a stock may or may not be undervalued. Are there situations where a HIGH P/E is actually ...
11
votes
2answers
849 views

Can you fully hedge an option in the presence of counterparty risk?

The derivation of the Black-Scholes model assumes no counterparty risk. Does the presence of counterparty risk invalidate the argument behind the model? EDIT: The question is about options in ...
19
votes
1answer
2k views

How do different methods and techniques used in pairs trading compare?

I was going through the paper of Avellaneda (2008) on stat arb and I found it interesting that he uses asset returns vs. their respective ETFs to compute the s-score. I am wondering if anyone has ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

Is equity market making a game of speed?

I have always felt that equity market making was a speed game for HFTs. But recently I talked to someone on the buy side, who made a claim to the contrary. He argued that with the right market making ...
11
votes
5answers
998 views

How can higher co-moments be applied to portfolio optimization in an asset allocation context?

Traditional portfolio optimization involves mean variance optimization, where only the mean and covariance matrix of returns are estimated. What asset allocation and portfolio optimization techniques ...
6
votes
3answers
585 views

How to account for jumps in intraday data when calculating beta?

I am calculating betas on intraday trade data at 15-minute intervals. For simplicity sake, let's assume I am modeling \begin{equation} Y = \beta * X + c \end{equation} where $Y$ is the return of XLF ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views

Why do expected return models and risk models use different factors?

This is a question responding to weekly topic challenge. I happen to see an interesting question from SYMMYS by Michael Kapler. I always approached expected return and risk modeling as separate ...
21
votes
3answers
3k views

How do you mix quantitative asset allocation with qualitative views?

Usually in asset allocation you have a quantitative approach (which can be from example mean-variance), but you (or you and your firm) also have a more qualitative approach given market-conditions, ...
5
votes
1answer
149 views

Are there quantitative models which can guide one's choice of target risk?

Note: This question was written for the weekly topic challenge. Many asset allocation funds presume the investor knows his target risk level, typically on some spectrum from conservative (mostly G7 ...
5
votes
3answers
668 views

How do you remove expected returns from asset allocation strategies?

The classic mean-variance optimization problem tries to minimize variance of a portfolio for a given expected return: $$ \underset{w}{\arg \min} \quad w^T \Sigma w \quad \text{s.t} \quad \mu^Tw \geq ...
4
votes
3answers
1k views

What are some of the major quantitative approaches to tactical asset allocation?

Note: This question was written for the weekly topic challenge. Many of you who deal with asset allocation will probably already be familiar with Mebane Faber's Timing Model, based on one of SSRN's ...
1
vote
1answer
237 views

accumulation/distribution and options to create excessive position to hit the tape with later

I am curious about possibilities and theory here. Basically a "problem" with trying to get large positions is that it would move the market in the direction that you are loading up on, therefore ...
2
votes
1answer
362 views

Econometric vs ANN models for forecast?

I hope this is an appropriate question for this forum... for me it is an obvious query since it intrigues me for a long time. Ok, assume there are 2 distinct classes of models: econometric (AR, MA, ...
3
votes
2answers
284 views

Which indices to use for an equity vs. fixed-income portfolio simulation?

I want to backtest several basic optimization methods (e.g. MVO, "most-diversified portfolio"), and I want to do this on a basket of different asset indexes. To start with, I want to simulate a 60/40 ...
10
votes
2answers
2k views

Why a self-financing replicating portfolio should always exist?

According to my understanding the derivation of the Black-Scholes PDE is based on the assumption that the price of the option should change in time in such a way that it should be possible to ...
7
votes
2answers
687 views

What quantitative strategies were successful through the 2008 crisis?

Obviously, strategies like "short everything" did well during this period, but getting the future right is one thing and having a robust strategy is another. In particular, many quantitative ...
8
votes
1answer
965 views

How to 'calibrate' simple pricing models for equity index options and equity options?

I am interested in doing some research on plain vanilla equity options and equity index options. I have historical data for these options. I also happen to have market maker 'fair price' (bid and ask) ...
6
votes
4answers
3k views

How does an option's time value depend on moneyness?

How does an option's time value (also known as extrinsic or instrumental value) depend on how far it is in the money or out of the money? In other words, how does the time value change as the ...

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