0
votes
2answers
196 views

For Probability of Default in retail credit what is more popular logistic regression or GLM with Poisson distribution and why?

Trying to understand which regression model is more popular in retail credit card industry Logistic regression or GLM with Poisson distribution and why?
0
votes
1answer
134 views

What is the correlation of and Index's dividend yield relative to its constituents?

I would like to know if the dividend yield of and index is correlated with the dividend yields of it's components separately? The purpose of this, is to use the dividend yield of the index as a proxy ...
0
votes
1answer
135 views

Combining BHHH and Levenberg Marquardt

I already asked a question related to this here: How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation I know understand how Levenberg Marquardt (LM) can be applied to the objective function....
0
votes
2answers
134 views

Future spot price versus current forward price

Which are the two conditions necessary to claim that the future spot price will have as many chances to be above or below the current forward price?
0
votes
1answer
39 views

Common point between IR and Vol option pricing models?

What is the common point between pricing models on options on Interest Rates and options on Volatility?
2
votes
1answer
96 views

How do I prove that $\lim_{K\searrow0}\frac{P(K,T)}{K} = \mathbb P(S_T=0)$?

I am trying to prove that $$\lim_{K\searrow0}\frac{P(K,T)}{K} = \mathbb P(S_T=0)$$ where $P(K,T)$ denotes the put option price with maturity $T$ and strike $K$ for some stock $S$. Assuming interest ...
3
votes
1answer
316 views

How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation

In this paper on p315: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf They explain that they use Levenberg Marquardt (LM) (along with BHHH) to maximize the likelihood. However as I ...
2
votes
2answers
234 views

what is the actual point of vega on real option data

For a call option, we know that the vega is the derivative of the price wrt to the volatility. However the volatility, in that context, actually refers to the implied volatility of the specific call ...
3
votes
5answers
178 views

economic facts that causes the financial time series to be heavy tailed

When reading a tutorail on extreme value theory, I once meet the following claim ...
6
votes
1answer
2k views

Regime-Switching Model for detecting market shifts

I'm always wondering whether anyone has utilized regime-switching models successfully in forecasting or trading. Academia has long discussed this topic in-depth, such as using Regime Switching ...
2
votes
2answers
712 views

How to combine trading signals to achieve higher capital efficiency?

I trade use a completely automated approach where all signals are generated by proprietary trading strategies. However, recently I encountered an challenging problem: Imagine we have 3 Strategies ...
7
votes
6answers
1k views

Self-financing and Black-Scholes-Merton formula

Self-financing is an important concept in financial product replicating, normally used in pricing. I read about several ways to derive Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula. Seems some approaches ...
3
votes
1answer
776 views

Does pricing quant still have bright future?

With regulators tightening the tether, tradings are shrinking and exotic products are fading out, or as my quant friends told me so. By the lag of education to the market, more MFE graduates are ...
1
vote
1answer
157 views

In a Black-Scholes world, why must volatility be strictly increasing in time-to-expiration?

This question is from Rebonato's Volatility and Correlation 2nd Edition. Rebonato states that if $\sigma_T^2T$ is not strictly increasing, it would be simple to set up an arbitrage. Unfortunately (...
5
votes
1answer
463 views

Arbitragefree Pricing: Q vs. P

I read that the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states, that a market is arbitrage-free if and only if there exists an equivalent martingale measure Q, under which the discounted asset price ...
2
votes
2answers
140 views

How current prices is formulated in markets?

I can't understand how immediate prices are formulated in stock & currency (Forex) markets. I have been informed that every tick means one new deal that closed in current price, but this can't be ...
6
votes
3answers
1k views

Do hedge fund trading desks use portfolio optimization?

I tend to think that hedge funds that actively trade (and most of the ones I have seen trade very actively), don't use optimization methods like MVO or ...
-1
votes
1answer
64 views

European Option Technical Exercise

I like to ask a practical question regarding the exercise of European Options: As we know, one may exercise a European option only at maturity $T$. But for example, if the option can be exercised ...
2
votes
1answer
830 views

Pricing an interest rate swap using Eurodollar futures

I see this posted but no answer given. I think it would be a good idea if we have a question on here to illustrate an example of how to price an interest rate swap. So far, I understand that that for ...
14
votes
4answers
2k views

Quantitative Math required for Market-making?

I understand there is an awful lot of Quantitative Math required for statistical arbitrage/algorithmic trading. However, would someone "in the know" be able to tell me whether there is less ...
1
vote
1answer
417 views

forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate

Question about forward vs spot simply-compounded spot interest rate.Some definitions $P(a,b)$ a zero coupond price at time $a$ and maturity $b$ $L(a,b)$ simply compounded spot interest rate set at ...
0
votes
1answer
2k views

Bloomberg Zero Coupon Rates

As some of your may know from my other posts, I am working on a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based relative value trading model. On simulated data (which satisfies all the assumptions) of the DNS it ...
0
votes
1answer
102 views

OIS discounting pre and post crises

I have a Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) based rv model. I want to know if I can use pre and post-crises curves interchangeably in my calibration and out of sample testing. I.e. those without OIS ...
1
vote
3answers
697 views

What Is A Good Success Rate Using Machine Learning For A Beginner?

I know this question will be quickly destroyed and my account summarily banned, but I just have to ask: For a trader using machine-learning algorithms (SVMs, ANNs, GAs, Decision Trees) for ...
2
votes
2answers
103 views

is there an accepted method for quantifying risk of inaccuracy of nascent trm systems?

Have a somewhat meta question here. I am part of a trading risk management implementation project. I also manage day to day risk reporting to management and the trading desks. Our implementation was ...
0
votes
2answers
84 views

Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
3
votes
5answers
365 views

Why can sometimes stock prices rise when interest rates rise?

Basic macroeconomics theory states that stock prices are inversely correlated with interest rates, i.e., when interest rates rise, borrowing is more costly, and thus companies with huge debt would be ...
4
votes
1answer
178 views

questions on VAR manipulation

The book of Financial Risk forecasting by Danielsson gives the following example about VAR manipulation. I have two questions: 1) If $0> VAR_1 > VAR_0$ , why the following figure plots it as $-...
2
votes
1answer
67 views

Weighting several returns over different time frames

I have a set of annualized returns over 4 time periods: 10yr, 5yr, 3yr and 1yr. Is there a way to weight each return to have a "more representative" return?
3
votes
1answer
161 views

Solving the Jamshidian Zhu (1997) PCA short rate model

This is my first time posting a question. I have very limited experience in the field of stochastic calculus and interest rate modelling. I have been tasked with implementing the short rate model ...
1
vote
1answer
160 views

Arbitrage Strategy Proof in Bjork

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition Proposition 2.9 Suppose that a claim X is reachable with replicating portfolio h. Then any price at t=0 of ...
3
votes
6answers
582 views

Do quants need to know Accounting?

Do quants need to know Accounting? In my school's undergrad Quant program, we had Financial Accounting and Managerial Accounting, which were listed as prerequisites for our undergrad Finance subjects....
2
votes
0answers
176 views

Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette Model

im trying to predict crash time by using lppl model(JLS). My codes can run, but the error is to high....I try with some other initial values, but still can't reduce the error.....How i can reduce ...
2
votes
0answers
126 views

Simple Forward Interest Rate Proof

Just trying to check my logic here: Let $Z(t,T)$ be a Zero-Coupon Bond with maturity $T$ bought at time $t$, $S_m$ be the spot interest rate for time $m$ and $S_n$ for time $n$ respectively, where $n ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Hedging a Long Equity Swap by Shorting the Stock

Suppose that I enter an Equity Swap, such that I pay a floating rate and I receive the equity return. The payment is every one year for both the rate and the return, and the swap expires in one year. ...
1
vote
1answer
178 views

Black–Karasinski - Market Price of Risk

In the past I have calibrated simple short rate models to the term structure by using maximum likelihood to get the parameters of the Vasicek/CIR sde, and then use the ZCB formula and the current ...
-1
votes
1answer
83 views

how to calculate avarage variance and avarage covariance

I would like to figure out how to calculate av.variance and av.cov. I know how to calculate portfolio variance( for large ...
2
votes
3answers
3k views

Why is Value at Risk non-negative?

When reading the book of Financial Risk Forecasting, I saw the following example. I am not very clear about two points marked with yellow and green respectively. ...
7
votes
0answers
171 views

American Swaption Heding with Malliavin Calculus

Hedging American Swaption Hello, I priced an American swaption using Black model with swap rates diffusion to find the european (call) price at t. $$ C_t = (\delta \sum_{j=n+1}^{M+1} Z_t^{T_j})[R(t,...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Pricing a FixedRateBond in Quantlib: yield vs TermStructure

I am trying to price a simple U.S. treasury in QuantLib, using two methods. The first method calls FixedRatebond.dirtyPrice(...), passing in a YTM and other parameters. The second method involves ...
5
votes
1answer
837 views

Risk-neutral pricing in incomplete markets

I know that in order to use the risk-neutral valuation principle, that is, pricing options as their payoff function under a risk neutral measure, one has to have a complete market. But in the ...
2
votes
1answer
259 views

Swaptions vol trading lognormally

What does this mean: "Front-end vols have been trading lognormally while longer tails have traded normally." I read this in a research report, in the context of ...
2
votes
1answer
43 views

How do derivatives affect capital structures?

Yesterday, I was at a lecture where the speaker said that the impact of derivatives was often to make senior debt, in effect, subordinated debt (in terms of priority, recovery rates, etc.)? How do ...
4
votes
3answers
115 views

How does US banks ensure that other country's banks aren't counterfeiting USD?

I have had this question for a long time. For example, if I wire 50M USD from China to the US, does the Chinese bank physically deliver 50M USD cash to the US bank? or is it just changing a number in ...
0
votes
2answers
692 views

Beta of FTSE100 stocks against benchmark index FTSE100

first post so if I write something silly don't hold it against me. I calculated beta for almost all the stocks that compose the FTSE100. All have beta < 1. This, as far as I understand it, means ...
6
votes
3answers
710 views

Deriving Interest Rates

I am trying to teach myself about interest rate swaps, how they are priced, etc... Easy enough - just comparing cash flows of fixed and floating rate bonds. However, what I'm struggling with is how ...
1
vote
2answers
124 views

Is the purchase of a stock publicly accessible?

If an investor bought a stock, could another private party access that information anywhere? Does the SEC/exchange itself create a real time/ historical record of who holds what stocks, and is that ...
5
votes
3answers
387 views

Platform for Quantitative equity portfolio

What are the most popular platforms used for quantitative equity portfolio management/research? I've only used Barra so far for their factor models. Is there any specific feature or model you think ...
0
votes
1answer
99 views

What does 2 Year Annualized mean compared to 1 Year Annualized

I am looking at a company's financial report and there is a table in it that lists returns over different annualized periods. It ranges from 1 year to 20 years. Would a 2 year return in this table be ...
4
votes
1answer
420 views

Electricity market : how to design an optimal hedging strategy using spot and futures markets for an industrial consumer?

Here is the problem : we should adopt the point of view of an industrial company which purchases electricity as an input in its production line and which wants to achieve the following two goals : -...

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