17
votes
2answers
698 views

How do you correct Max Draw-Down for auto-correlation?

When returns are auto-correlated, calculating a Sharpe ratio := $\frac {mean(x)}{\sqrt{var(x)}}$, (where $x$ are the returns) is complicated, but basically solved (see, e.g. Lo (2005)). Without the ...
2
votes
3answers
1k views

Probability - Generating fair outcome using unfair coin

I have been thinking a lot about the following puzzle. But, could not arrive at a solution. Can someone explain me how can you get a fair (equal probability) outcome using only an unfair coin (where ...
6
votes
4answers
1k views

What does it mean to modify the factor loadings of a credit risk model?

I came across an example where a well-known weakness of a credit risk model was dealt with by augmenting some of the existing risk factors via increased factor loadings. This made the the model more ...
14
votes
5answers
1k views

How to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin?

A fairly naive approach to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin is to calculate the probabilities of all the permutations of your sample returns, keeping track of those that hit your drawdown / ...
8
votes
3answers
3k views

Is variable binning a good thing to do?

Let's say you have a logistic regression model. Some of the factors are intrinsically categorical but some are continuous variables. Under which circumstances should a continuous variable be binned ...
8
votes
2answers
548 views

What is Quantization?

I have asked myself many times about Quantization Numerical Methods, is anyone here familiar with the subject and could give a reasonable insight of what Quantization concepts are about, and what are ...
7
votes
2answers
557 views

Proving Random Walk Hypothesis in Stock Market

Given the time series for a particular stock market, what are the statistical weapons one can bring on to prove, or disprove that random walk hypothesis?
6
votes
1answer
534 views

Are special condition identifiers (e.g. AIG+) standardized?

Suffixes indicating class, preferred, new, etc., are well defined for NASDAQ and NYSE, but I can't find anything documenting the meanings of the trailing punctuation. For example, here's some that I ...
4
votes
2answers
308 views

What is a cubature scheme?

Ideally an intuitive explanation with an example, please.
8
votes
1answer
341 views

Are there any standard MBS coupon stack models?

I need to model MBS coupon stack prices. It would not be difficult to create something from scratch, but I don't want to re-invent the wheel (and explain why I did) if a somewhat standard model ...
3
votes
1answer
450 views

What is a Structurer?

People "on the Street" distinguish between quants and structurers. Who are the structurers? what do they do?
10
votes
2answers
2k views

Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing (FTAP)

In the spirit of canonical questions please state here versions of the FTAP in the following form (please only one theorem by answer) : Necessary definitions (or a direct link to definitions) ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

Is there a technique for using xts or zoo objects with options data (i.e., many entries per date) in R?

I am starting to work with options data from optionmetrics. I use data frames, but it seems like xts or zoo objects are the way to go for features and speed. I can't figure out the best work-around to ...
11
votes
4answers
3k views

Volatility pumping in practice

The fascinating thing about volatility pumping (or optimal growth portfolio, see e.g. here) is that here volatility is not the same as risk, rather it represents opportunity. Additionally it is a ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views

What is a Quant

In the interest of having "canonical questions" on this site ... What is a Quant?
16
votes
2answers
1k views

Statistical properties of stochastic processes for moving average trading to work

Common wisdom holds it that a moving average approach is more successful than buy-and-hold. There is quantitative evidence for that across different asset classes (see e.g. this book, or this paper ...
11
votes
5answers
6k views

What is the implied volatility skew?

I often hear people talking about the skew of the volatility surface, model, etc... but it appears to me that a clear standard definition is not unanimously in place among practitioners. So here is ...
10
votes
4answers
5k views

What is a martingale?

What is a martingale and how it compares with a random walk in the context of the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
16
votes
4answers
1k views

Does mean-variance portfolio optimization provide a real edge to those who use it?

Mean-variance optimization (MVO) is a 50+ year concept, and perhaps the first seminal idea of quantitative finance. Still, as far as I know, less than 25% of AUM in the US is quantitatively managed. ...
20
votes
4answers
3k views

Any research on how natural language processing can be used to forecast stocks?

Is there any published research of decent quality linking news or unstructured information to asset returns? I know that Thomson Reuters offers its Machine Readable news (MRN), so somebody must use ...
16
votes
2answers
637 views

How do macro funds manage risk and model asset returns? Do they use factor models?

Some of the largest funds in the world are entirely macro-based: Soros, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater. They trade across asset classes, and seemingly with very concentrated allocations. What type of risk ...
15
votes
7answers
1k views

Are there ways to measure the risk aversion of a representative investor, based on publicly available market data?

Are there ways to measure the risk aversion of a representative investor, based on publicly available market data? Public available data could include asset price, volume, and flow data, and may be ...
15
votes
7answers
14k views

Is the Interactive Brokers API suitable for hft?

By hft here I mean anything with holding period less than 5-10mins... Any empirical/anecdotal evidence of using it successfully on even higher frequencies?
26
votes
9answers
5k views

How 'High' is the frequency in HFT?

How many trades per second are we talking about? What kind of strategies are used in this time frame? Can the small guy play the game?
21
votes
11answers
6k views

Is F# used in trading systems?

Similar to this other question about Scala, I'm interested in knowing whether F# is used to any measurable degree in financial circles. Have there been any successful shops using it, any research on ...
14
votes
6answers
9k views

Is Scala used in trading systems

I'm curious about high performance computing and consider algo/program trading as an interesting source of information about what are performant technologies that are used to trade the markets. Is ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

How to make sense of VXX and the people who bought it?

I don't quite understand how anyone would invest in VXX (asides from short-term trades)... Since the VIX term structure is generally in contango, the VXX is doomed to bleed to death. Therefore, how ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views

Categories of systematic trading strategies?

What are the main categories of systematic trading strategies (e.g. momentum, mean reversion), as might be considered by an index or fund-of-fund analyst? Are there any common sub-strategies?
1
vote
1answer
938 views

basic stock trading strategies [closed]

What are some trading strategies for stocks (just stocks, no derivatives) using freely available online data sources?
5
votes
3answers
983 views

How significant is slippage in a successful quant fund?

On average, how much slippage (measured in lost % return potential) is typical for an operating quant fund that trades in, say, major U.S. equities?
6
votes
2answers
573 views

What quant terms to use to search for papers about “stop-hunting” trading strategies?

Are there any papers about possible trading strategies you can apply when you know where a large cluster of orders is located in the order-book? These seem to fall in the ...
6
votes
2answers
351 views

Is there something like opportunistic “superstitious” trading?

This sentence in the following paper got me thinking: "Some traders [...] trade every pattern whether proven or not, expecting authentic ones to produce positive results, whilst the profits and ...
3
votes
4answers
2k views

How do banks actually make money on mortgages [closed]

This is a bit of a subjective question and relates primarily to the UK market There are a number of banks who are lending at BOE + 1.49% (ie: 1.99 %) whilst at the same time accepting deposits paying ...
2
votes
2answers
16k views

Wealth Management Vs Asset Management [closed]

What is the difference between the two? Today in the FT I see that UBS is the second biggest 'wealth manager' after BOA whilst I was always under the impression that Blackrock was the largest asset ...
6
votes
1answer
537 views

What are the ensemble techniques to forecast returns?

It was pointed in an other question that ensemble methods can help to reduce curve fitting. What are your experience with these and which one seems the most appropriate? If I had two forecasters that ...
7
votes
1answer
671 views

How to limit the nbr of cross-gamma calculations in a delta-gamma VaR calculation?

Many times, we want to calculate VaR using some parametric approach (delta-normal approximation for instance) when historical simulation or monte carlo are simply to slow. This is fine as long as only ...
4
votes
1answer
438 views

Black-Equivalent Volatility

Can Someone Explain to me what this term means, and how it's used?
20
votes
4answers
2k views

QuantLib in industry

How much is QuantLib used in industry and how much street cred does it have?
4
votes
4answers
554 views

Expected Growth

The model assumption of the Black-Scholes formula has two parameters for the geometric Brownian motion, the volatility $\sigma$ and the expected growth $\mu$ (which disappears in the option formulae). ...
7
votes
2answers
2k views

SPX options vs VIX futures trading

Forward volatility implied by SPX options, and that of VIX futures get out of line. If there existed VIX SQUARED futures they could easily be replicated (and arbitraged) with a strip of SPX options. ...
4
votes
3answers
1k views

Does the debt load affect the volatility of equity?

Does the debt load of a company have an impact on the stock price of a company and its volatility? Also, how does the market react to the announcement of a company issuing bonds?
8
votes
2answers
654 views

Extensions of Black-Scholes model

For the Black-Scholes model my feeling is that the volatility parameter is like sweeping stuff under the rug. Are there models which improve on the volatility aspect of Black-Scholes by adding other ...
10
votes
5answers
2k views

Is it possible to use a series of option prices to predict the most likely path of an asset?

I've always wondered about this. If you have a series of options, with the expires spaced let's say one week between them, and you search for each expiration date the option with the smallest ...
6
votes
1answer
504 views

How to use binomial tree for portfolio of equity products

How can I use a binomial tree to price a European option that's based on a portfolio of equity products? I have volatility and correlation matrix of all underlying products? Looking for a formula ...
14
votes
8answers
5k views

Probability of touching

For a vanilla option, I know that the probability of the option expiring in the money is simply the delta of the option... but how would I calculate the probability, without doing monte carlo, of the ...
18
votes
7answers
22k views

What is the difference between volatility and variance?

How do volatility and variance differ in finance and what do both imply about the movement of an underlying?
15
votes
6answers
6k views

What is the intuition behind cointegration?

What is the intuition behind cointegration? What does the Dickey-Fuller test do to test for it? Ideally, a non-technical explanation would be appreciated. Say you need to explain it to an investor ...
34
votes
7answers
3k views

Paradoxes in quantitative finance

Everyone seems to agree that the option prices predicted by the Black-Merton-Scholes model are inconsistent with what is observed in reality. Still, many people rely on the model by using "the wrong ...
11
votes
4answers
819 views

Solving Path Integral Problem in Quantitative Finance using Computer

I've asked this question here at Physics SE, but I figured that some parts would be more appropriate to ask here. So I'm rephrasing the question again. We know that for option value calculation, path ...
11
votes
3answers
1k views

How do strategies deal with corporate actions?

There are many corporate actions that will affect the stock price, like dividend, stock split and rights. Given a large series of historical price data, how do we adjust the data to filter out the ...

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