0
votes
1answer
208 views

What would be the impact of the US Credit Rating downgrade on Crude Oil Prices? [closed]

From a modeling point of view, here are my primary assumptions for Monday: a) I would expect the US$ to depreciate and crude oil to rise in the long term. b) Expect crude oil to dip in the short run ...
0
votes
0answers
4 views

Forward parity in fixed income

In stock and index we have a beautiful forward-spot parity $$ F(t,T) = S(t)\cdot B(t,T) \tag{1} $$ which tells us that to price a forward contract at time $t$ with expiry $T$ we can just borrow ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

Is there a considered floor for variation the 1st principal component must explain?

I am wondering if there is a considered floor to the percentage variation the 1st principal component must explain in general for PCA - ie. any lower and it is not worth doing PCA at all? Is the floor ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views

Influencing factors on credit

There was the following question on an exam: Which factors are influencing the effective interest rate of a credit? loan amount fees interest rate running time I would have said ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

Fed Funds Rate: longer maturities

FFR published by Fed Bank of NY is the average rate US banks charge each other for the overnight loans of their reserves required by the Fed regulations. Since Fed acts similar to a clearing house ...
0
votes
1answer
19 views

compute technical indicators from candle data

i have a rookie question but can't find the answer anywhere so..what is the right way to compute a simple moving average when you have an array of (open,close,low,high) tuples ? From what i saw so ...
0
votes
1answer
20 views

Given cash flows, what is the interest rate if the period is in days (10 day period)

I am presented with an investment opportunity where I am given #481,000 on day 1. Thereafter, every 10 days, I am required to give back #50,000 every for 100 days (10 * 50000 = 500000). How do I ...
0
votes
0answers
21 views

Ledoit-Wulf portfolio strategy calculation

I am trying to implement the Lediot-Wulf portfolio strategy on a real-world stock dataset. ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Estimate volatility in forecast

I have a model with a rolling forecast. In each time step $t$, I predict the price for the next periods, e.g. $\hat{p}(t, t+1)$ and $\hat{p}(t, t+2)$. If I start in $t=0$ and arrive at $t=2$, I ...
0
votes
1answer
31 views

Delta hedging cost of exotic options?

I'm simulating dynamic delta hedging for up-and-out call option. For plain vanilla call options, I heard that the option price is the expected value of the accumulated delta hedging cost. Does it also ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views

calibration of Gaussian two factor short rate model

I am trying to calibrate the gaussian two factor short rate model whose dynamics is given by r(t)=x(t)+y(t)+phi(t) Now to calibrate the model to term structure ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Merton Jump Diffusion Model: Influence of lambda

I use Monte Carlo to simulate sample paths of Merton's jump diffusin model. By plotting a histogram of the log returns and using kerneldensity to approximate the density function I try to look at the ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

How difficult/easy it is to migrate from CME FAST to CME MDP3.0?

Has anyone gone through this migration? Just wanted to have an idea of the amount of effort required.
0
votes
1answer
44 views

FORECASTING Model AR(1) in an Autoregressive Form The Pi´s Parameters

Ive been implementing a little exercise to obtain the first 2 forecasting points of an AR(1) process. And i want to have the forecasting ponts using the three forms: Im folowing this pdf ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Quantitative methods for Fund Managers [closed]

I might be wrong, but from what I've seen most Fund Managers are CFA guys with little quantitative background. They rely way more on market experience than cold numbers. Is there such a thing as a ...
0
votes
0answers
41 views

Greeks of a swaption using Brigo

I struggeling with calculating the delta of a swaption. In the interest rate case I usually mess around with the multiple cash flows over time so that the discounting is more complex than in the ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Compound Discounting(?)

I am a programmer interning at a small contract furniture company. This company receives multiple discounts from the manufacturers, and I am trying to calculate the end discount. For example, the ...
0
votes
1answer
44 views

About the boundary conditions of the Black-Scholes-Merton PDE

I have a question about the solution of the Black-Scholes PDE for the European call option when I read the book Stochastic Calculus for Finance II of Steven E.Shreve. Let $c(t,x)$ be the value of the ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Carry Trade vs synthetic Carry Trade using forward contracts

When it comes to foreign exchange carry trade strategy, the definition is straightforward: an investor borrows 1 USD in the US (low interest country) and invests that $1 to AU (high interest country). ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views
+50

Bayesian logit model in Psychometric or Behavioural Testing for Credit Scoring in Developing Countries

A lot of parameters in one title, I know. So there's credit scoring but not using credit history. Then there's using a Bayesian logit model. Then there's doing so in a developing country such as Haiti ...
0
votes
1answer
51 views

European call down and out option (geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo, Euler)

I need to estimate the expected value and the Greeks of an European call down and out option, assuming geometrical Brownian motion of the asset, with Monte Carlo simulation employing Euler ...
0
votes
1answer
62 views

Asset pricing - Technology

I am working a bit on this paper, which is about Long-run risk through Consumption Smoothing. In equation (8) and (9) the authors define the stochastic process for the technology as: $Z_t = exp(\mu ...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Consumption Based Asset Pricing

I am working on some consumption based asset pricing models. I am modelling consumption growth in several different ways. An obvious one is to model consumption growth as an AR(1) process: $g_{t+1} = ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Issues with +100 symbols in Quantstrat, Erratic Trades

I've tested my code against individual symbols and very small groups of symbols. I'm finding the more symbols I add the fewer trades I get. For instance, if I just include the first five symbols, all ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ...
0
votes
0answers
9 views

What are commercial impact models and transaction cost analysis models out there for simulation?

I have heard that ITG, LiquidMetrix, MarkIT and TradingScreen has good Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA) research. I wonder which firm one would choose to have an impact model formula inside his ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Optimize Kelly Criterion in these circumstances for Binary Options

For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds, the Kelly bet is: f* is the fraction of ...
0
votes
1answer
42 views

What is some book that is complete and easy but hard enough to serve as prerequisite for asset pricing and portfolio choice theory?

What is some book that is complete and easy but hard enough to serve as prerequisite for asset pricing and portfolio choice theory by kerry back? I wonder how come a beginning graduate textbook is so ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

Where to download Earnings Conference Call transcripts?

Is there any places (like EDGAR) that I can download Earnings Conference Call transcripts in bulk? Thanks.
0
votes
1answer
18 views

What P&L netting should one use when a strategy has trades in two different geographic locations?

I am familiar with the FIFO methodology of netting buys and sells to obtain a realized P&L and outstanding position. Suppose there's a strategy which runs in two different places A, and B and ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Settlement/Spot/(bid ask spread) ratio

Are there any studies on the average difference or ratio between Settlement (execution price) and the Spot price dependant on lot size. I'm looking for a function such as ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Does it make sense to interpret autocorrelation and box test on 5 data points?

I am trying to see if after I trade a stock the price movements at 2, 5, 7, 10, 30 and 60 seconds after exhibit any autocorrelation. Below I have the returns from my trade price to the trade 2,5,7,10 ...
0
votes
0answers
61 views

Monte Carlo, convexity and Risk-Neutral ZCB Pricing

I've built a simplistic Excel monte carlo model to price a zero-coupon bond, but it came up with a slightly unepxected result so I wanted to confirm whether my maths is just a little rusty or my model ...
0
votes
0answers
31 views

Performance analysis for a changing portfolio

I am trying to do a performance analysis of an investment in five different funds (A to E). I am investing a fixed amount at each fund (say 10m in A, 20m in B, 10m in C, 20m in D, 10m in E) but the ...
0
votes
1answer
17 views

Intrepreting the Capital Market Line plot

I am looking at plots of the Security Market (SML) line and Capital market line (CML). The X axis is the beta for the SML and Standard deviation for CML; the y axis is labeled with excess return. ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Programmer new to the quant world - learning material request [duplicate]

So I am a programmer in Uni and was looking for all types of resources to learn about quantitative analysis techniques from: Podcasts. Videos. Tutorials. Books. Lectures. Examples. All of these ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

Broker or source of intraday futures data for a python API?

I am looking for a broker that offers a python API for downloading historical intraday data on futures. So far I have only seen Interactive Brokers and Tradestation. Are there some other brokers ...
0
votes
1answer
108 views

Which distribution do I get?

Let's assume the stock moves according to a classic Black-Scholes model, and makes a proportional jump with an unknown proportion. Say, it is either +1% or -3% of the stock value, and we know for sure ...
0
votes
0answers
33 views

What's the risk-neutral expectation of the arithmetic average of stock price?

All Black-Scholes assumptions apply ($y$ is yield): what's $E(A_T), E(A_T^2)$ and $Var(A_T)$ where $A_T=\frac{\int_0^T S_tdt}{T}$ is the continuous-sampling arithmetic average of the stock price ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Interpretation of Johansen cointegration test in R

I am using urca package of R for Johansen Cointegration test in 2 stocks datas( A and B. My question is very elementar, but have cause some problems for me. How I interpret the critical values, for ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

short term trading does it really add value and to whom?

Short term traders who flip their stocks within 5-10 minutes, do they really add value to any one? Text book answer is yes, they help price discovery and provide liquidity. Within that 5 minutes ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Risk neutral pricing formula justification in incomplete markets [duplicate]

I'm having trouble understanding how to justify the use of the risk-neutral pricing formula $V(t) = \mathbb{E}^{*}[e^{r(T-t)}H(S_{T})|\mathcal{F}_{t}]$ in models which are characterized by ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

How was the adj.close for RIG calculated after Transocen - GobalSantafe merge

Yahoo's algorithm for adj.close calculation is pretty clear, as explained in the link. Said that, however, the values for RIG till 2007-11-26 don't follow such rules, as shown here. Indeed, if one ...
0
votes
0answers
13 views

Modeling EOD ETFs price returns together or individually?

Let's say you want to model the next day price returns for a set of US equities large cap ETFs (a relatively homogenous group). Would you model all the ETFs as a single, 15 years data set, or each ETF ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views

negative yield (interest rate) and Option Pricing [duplicate]

If i have negative yield (interest rate) can I still proceed with Standard Black and Scholes or Simple Binomial Model? any Adjustment is required to the model? how does it effect the pricing model in ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Values for Heston Model Parameters

Under the Heston model, the stock price and volatility follow the processes \begin{align*} dS & = \mu S dt + \sqrt{V} S dW^1, \\ dV & = \kappa (\theta - V)dt + \sigma \sqrt{V} dW^2, \\ dW^1 ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views

Where I can find the conventions used in building an FX volatility surface?

Here are some conventions used in building the EUR/USD volatility surface. I need to validate these fields: Base Currency: EUR Term Currency: USD Spot Lag: 2bd Interpolation Variable: ...
0
votes
0answers
65 views

Black-Scholes formula with deterministic interest rate and dividend yield

Does any one have the Black-Scholes formula for a European call with time-dependent but deterministic interest rate and dividend yield ?
0
votes
1answer
29 views

American put option and rising interest rate

Will a rise in interest rate always result in a lower price of an American put option?
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Test Log-Normality for LIBOR forward rates under the Libor Market Model

As far as I understand, under the Libor Market Model the forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution. Given that I have constructed my LMM model and now have a matrix of: k different ...

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