1
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3answers
102 views

Is it realistic to assume that the current price of a stock takes into account the probability of it going up or down in the future?

I'm currently reading the following lecture notes: http://www1.maths.leeds.ac.uk/~jitse/math2515/lecture04.pdf On the second page, under the subsection titled "The Risk-Neutral World" it points out ...
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1answer
65 views

Selecting bonds to be used in Nigel-Siegel Svensson OLS Regression

I need to obtain the initial parameters that would be used in the Non-Linear Optimization that provides the Nelson-Siegel Svensson parameters for US Treasury Bonds. The Optimization appears to be very ...
1
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1answer
166 views

Understanding how to calculate Accrued Interest of Bonds

When calculating the accrued Interest of Treasury Bonds, how does one set the settlement date? And, is it possible for certain bonds that there are no coupon payments before the settlement date and ...
1
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1answer
95 views

Calculating Accrued Interest of Bonds

I am trying to calculate the accrued interest for a set of Treasury Bonds. I am comparing the answer from the code below with that for the 1st Bond(row) over here. In the link the AI is ...
1
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1answer
36 views

Correct Theoretical Discount Factors from Nelson-Siegel-Svensson?

I am calculating the theoretical discount factors associated with a bond that has 30 months to maturity from today with the parameters below obtained from here using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson Model. ...
1
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1answer
95 views

Delta hedging cost of exotic options?

I'm simulating dynamic delta hedging for up-and-out call option. For plain vanilla call options, I heard that the option price is the expected value of the accumulated delta hedging cost. Does it also ...
1
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2answers
71 views

how to convert notional to nominal of bond future to ctd bond

I want to know if you can easily convert a notional of a bond futures contract into the nominal of the ctd bond if you have the conversion factor. For example you have 1000 notional of a futures ...
1
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1answer
69 views

Connection between implied volatily and implied probability

I am reading some lecture notes about Black-Scholes (BS) option pricing. Since the BS-formula is not supported by observed data because of the dependence of the implied volatility on the strik and ...
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1answer
141 views

Numerical Solutions for PIDE

I want to solve an exotic options of PIDE by Numerical Methods.I just focus on the integral part of PIDE and want to underestand some tips on numerical solution of how to numerically solve it. Exactly ...
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1answer
93 views

What Exactly is Expected Return

Consider the following plot, courtesy of this page: Regarding the $y$-axis, how does this "expected return" relate to the "instantaneous expected return" in a geometric Brownian motion (GBM)? E.g., ...
1
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1answer
30 views

Consumption Based Asset Pricing

I am working on some consumption based asset pricing models. I am modelling consumption growth in several different ways. An obvious one is to model consumption growth as an AR(1) process: $g_{t+1} = ...
1
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2answers
259 views

How to get list of all symbols in fred database?

I am trying to query every single series in the fred database using r. I have checked out both the quantmod and fImport packages, and they work fine, though it seems that quantmod fits my use a bit ...
1
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1answer
62 views

Does it make sense to interpret autocorrelation and box test on 5 data points?

I am trying to see if after I trade a stock the price movements at 2, 5, 7, 10, 30 and 60 seconds after exhibit any autocorrelation. Below I have the returns from my trade price to the trade 2,5,7,10 ...
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1answer
142 views

Broker or source of intraday futures data for a python API?

I am looking for a broker that offers a python API for downloading historical intraday data on futures. So far I have only seen Interactive Brokers and Tradestation. Are there some other brokers ...
1
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1answer
125 views

Interpretation of Johansen cointegration test in R

I am using urca package of R for Johansen Cointegration test in 2 stocks datas( A and B. My question is very elementar, but have cause some problems for me. How I interpret the critical values, for ...
1
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3answers
105 views

What's the disadvantage of using linear programming for portfolio optimization?

I am a MFE student and we have project on the Markowitz portfolio optimization problem. i am wondering how much impact there will be, if I use a simpler linear optimizater instead of a quadratic ...
1
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2answers
112 views

convert three months interbank rate into monthly rate

I have a time series of the three month interbank rate each month and I suppose that the rate is has yearly frequency. I need these interbank rates to be on a monthly basis because I want to us these ...
1
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1answer
243 views

How to use Halton sequence in monte carlo simulation

Does anybody know how to use the Halton pseudo random technique in monte carlo simulation. I'm able to generate the sequences and I know they are correct. I checked a couple of numbers from different ...
1
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1answer
89 views

What is type of Operating income to total assets ratio? [closed]

What is type of Operating income to total assets ratio? Leverage, Profitability, Asset composition or Liquidity? and why?
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1answer
151 views

Conversion of SPY prices to ES prices

I have a system that I use intraday that works great on SPY. Due to the extra leverage available plus other benefits I am thinking about trading the system using ES. Is there a conversion factor ...
1
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2answers
90 views

Using IRR to calculate future value of cashflow

Discounting a cashflow using given forward rates will result in the following present value: PV = 102.875 = ${5\over (1+3\%)}$ + ${5\over (1+3\%)(1+4\%)}$ + ${105\over (1+3\%)(1+4\%)(1+5\%)}$ where ...
1
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1answer
129 views

Finding the Interest Compounded with Bank Advertising Yield

A bank is advertising 9.5% accounts that yield 9.84% annually. How often is the interest compounded. Answer is Quarterly. I've been trying to look for the formula for this; it doesnt seem to be ...
1
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1answer
81 views

Pricing employee stock options

ESOs are typically priced using the black-scholes model, but with an additional parameter for for the employee turnover rates . An example ...
1
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1answer
172 views

Jacobian transformation

I am trying to calculate pillar-wise sensitivity of a fixed coupon bond using par rates (given pillar-wise zero coupon sensitivities). I came across the formula pv01(par) = pv01(zero) * dz/dr, where ...
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1answer
121 views

Capital gains and dividends tax arbitrage

There is a statement in Paul Wimott Introduce Quantitative Finance: Often capital gains due to the rise in a stock price are taxed differently from a dividend, which is often treated as income. ...
1
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1answer
62 views

Regression model syntax

I'm following the methodology outlined in Developing High-Frequency Equities Trading Models. On page 27, the author outlines an OLS regression model to obtain beta coefficients. The model is defined ...
1
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1answer
74 views

FX Portfolio Volatility Targeting

If I have 3 different currency trades (ex short EURSEK, short NZDUSD, long USDJPY), how do I size each trade if I wish to allocate risk equally in order to target a 12% portfolio volatility (allowing ...
1
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2answers
70 views

Calculate single cashflow at maturity for a Total Return Inflation swap (zero coupon)

I'm a newbie to the world of swaps. If I have a Total Return Inflation Swap (Receive CPI, Pay Fixed Zero Coupon) Based on CPI Index starting level = 236 Notional = 100,000 Term = 5 Years How can I ...
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1answer
120 views

Using Spot Rates to construct Zero-Coupon Bond Yield Curve

I am just trying to get an explanation as to why Spot Rates can't be used to create a yield curve for Zero-Coupon Bonds? Or if they can, would it involve Bootstrapping? Thanks
1
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1answer
55 views

Calculating Fees (Kane, Marcus, and Trippi)

Having read a chapter in Bodie, Kane and Marcus' Investment, I came across a formula I do not quite understand. It states that the percentage fee in excess of what an index fund would charge on active ...
1
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1answer
99 views

Covariance Matrix vs. Volatility Matrix

Consider a general multidimensional market model in which each of $m$ stocks is driven by $d$ Brownian motions (as in Shreve II, p. 226), viz. $$ dS_i/S_i = \alpha_i dt + \sum_{j=1}^d \sigma_{ij}dW_j, ...
1
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1answer
15 views

Measure difference between estimations and historic returns

For every day in a year, I have the return on an asset and the CAPM estimation for the return. I want to measure the average difference between the set of returns and set of estimations. So far, I ...
1
vote
1answer
87 views

What is the distribution assumption of the black scholes model

As per wikipedia the Black Scholes assumption is: (...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

Residuals in the Ljung box test

does anybody know what type of residuals is used in the Ljung box test in R? raw or standardized? Because basically when I fit a GARCH model using garchFit, the summary() function gives me all the ...
1
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2answers
94 views

Uses of Volatility models

I'm reading about volatility analysis here http://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/doc?topic=mdls. There are many variations of GARCH. My question is: rather than trial-and-error approach, is there any systematic ...
1
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1answer
305 views

calculate YTD return / find first available datapoint of a year in python

I need to calculate the year-to-date relative return of a given dataset. I usually caculate the cumulative relative return with this simple function: ...
1
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1answer
62 views

bootstrap asset allocation

I want to ask if the bootstrap method for asset allocation is preferable. For instance, suppose that we have data for the past returns for two stocks. Is it wise to generate the efficient frontierby ...
1
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1answer
158 views

Markowitz portfolio optimization question

I am studying the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory, and I just wanted to ask if I understood this correctly. For a stock portfolio we distinguish two kinds of risks: an unsystematic risk, which ...
1
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1answer
42 views

How to effectively hedge a Fixed-Term deal in a foreign currency?

Assume my firm is based in USD and agrees with some counterparty to buy, at time $T$, some quantity $Q$ of asset $A$ for a fixed price $K$. Assume also that $A$ prices and $K$ are denominated in EUR. ...
1
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1answer
124 views

Why we consider second derivative w.rt price but only first derivative w.r.t time and volatility

What is the reason (better if it is intuitive, and not too math heavy), that when we talk of Greeks, we consider second derivative with respect to price (gamma), but only first derivative with respect ...
1
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1answer
143 views

Z-Score calculation for a win-loss streak

I am trying to find the correlation between wins and losses by applying Z-Score according to formula attached below. I put them in an array by assigning 1 to wins and -1s to losers. I am trying to ...
1
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1answer
116 views

Cointegration tests: how do you accurately test the necessity of time trends in the Johansen and Engle-Granger Test?

Is there a correct and up to date procedure? I just run the equation in VEC form and test the significance of the time trends? What are the possible problems that I should be aware of?
1
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1answer
42 views

Portfolio Selection formulation

I was just wondering why in http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1601412 on page 22, the constraint (48) is a strict equality for the minimum variance formulation. Whereas in a different ...
1
vote
1answer
119 views

parameters in Heston model and their impact on volatility smile

Consider the Heston model given by the following set of stochastic differential equations: $$\frac{dS_{t}}{S_{t}}=\mu_{t}dt+\sqrt{V_{t}}dW_{t}, S_{0}>0,$$ ...
1
vote
1answer
82 views

Bond in relation to US T-Bill/Risk-Free rate

By looking at the following charts , i wondered about how to plot a fixed income security against a risk free bond. I have the bond price time series but I am not sure what US T-Bill rate I should ...
1
vote
2answers
74 views

Where to find pricing formulas for affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models?

Does anyone know a reference where I can find the pricing formulas for vanilla calls in the affine stochastic volatility jump diffusion class of models such as SVJ and SVJJ? I am looking for ...
1
vote
1answer
132 views

References for PD / LGD estimates of low-default portfolios

Any recommendations or reading sources for estimating individual PDs and LGDs for a set of low-default assets (souvereigns, investment grade corporates)? Since observing no defaults at all, regular ...
1
vote
1answer
207 views

Machine learning to build top 3 price scenarios over n days

I have a time series of closing prices for a given stock. I would like to formulate possible future scenarios for the price. My intention is not to use these "likely" scenarios to take any position. ...
1
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1answer
128 views

how can I calculate the factor loading (beta)?

I am writing my Thesis about hedge funds performance measurement and I want to use the seven factor model proposed by Fung & Hsieh (2004). Now, I am struggling to find out how to calculate the ...
1
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1answer
92 views

Looking for paper: “Simulation and calibration of the HJM model” by Andersen

I've Googled for the paper and found this site but it's down (at the moment). Note, this is not a quest for a free copy (or we wouldn't allow it :), the paper is also nowhere to find for a fee. A guy ...

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