0
votes
2answers
382 views

What stock market indicators to model based on twitter feed? [closed]

We are developing an algorithm that models twitter users and groups of words that may indicate real world events. One application is modelling elections, i.e which party is likely going to win. ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Why doesn't a simulated delta hedging process go to zero?

I put together a simple simulation of delta hedging a set of options with an underlying and it seems that the fluctuations of the price still seem to affect the final outcome. The reason, I understand ...
2
votes
1answer
230 views

How to calculate two-time scale variance?

I am having trouble understanding how to calculate two-time scale variance as I do not have a strong mathematical background. Suppose I want to calculate the TSRV at 5 min intervals. Do I calculate ...
6
votes
3answers
2k views

What continous adjustment methods are firms using for futures backtesting?

There are several methods available between data vendors and associated software programs to adjust futures contract data for historical simulations. Some of the methods are: 1) Back or forward ...
3
votes
1answer
233 views

What are $d_1$ and $d_2$ for Laplace?

What are the formulae for d1 & d2 using a Laplace distribution?
4
votes
2answers
81 views

Imputed values in a multi-index

I have an equal-weighted index on a number of different Indices (from US, Europe and Asian markets). This compound index is constructed from a time series that has missing values (for example, those ...
6
votes
0answers
236 views

is there a mapping from Altman Z-score for private companies to bond ratings or probability of default?

On wikipedia, there is a formula to calculate the Altman Z-score for private companies: Z-score estimated for private firms: T1 = (Current Assets − Current Liabilities) / Total Assets T2 = Retained ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Multiple (linear) regression

I am looking for some inputs on a pair trading strategy that I am trying to improve with some semi-fundamental input. The basic idea is to use multiple linear regression to estimate the price of a ...
4
votes
1answer
344 views

time in time series database - UTC or local

I strictly store UTC time stamps inside time series files or databases, mainly to allow processing several time series together. Timezone information is kept with each time series file or item, so ...
0
votes
2answers
96 views

Intangible assets as underlying for Futures contracts

How is it possible for a Futures contract to have an intangible underlying? For example, to my knowledge, there exist Futures that have interest rates as their underlying, come delivery date, how is ...
7
votes
2answers
7k views

Daily returns using adjusted close

I want to chart the daily returns of a stock, and I'm using Yahoo finance data to download historic data. I was told to use Adjusted Close, but there seems to be an issue with this. For ANTO.L, you ...
2
votes
1answer
260 views

Testing for stationarity in large sample sizes

I keep struggling with testing 9 samples if they are stationary. Each of these samples is a real valued time series with 714.000 values. If I use the KPSS test with the each compleete sample set, the ...
3
votes
2answers
363 views

NYSE binary data, convert to ASCII

The data product "TAQ NYSE Order Imbalances" from the New York Stock Exchange is in a format that is described pretty well in sections 4.8, 4.9, 4.10, and 5 of the document "NYSE Order Imbalances ...
4
votes
1answer
452 views

Quantitative risk model for an open real estate mutual fund in Europe

How useful are quantitative techniques for the risk analysis/management of a open real estate fund? I am thinking about an approach for Europe (US and other markets are probably quite different - ...
7
votes
1answer
906 views

What do eigenvalues/eigenvectors of the yield/forward rates covariance matrices mean?

I have 5 bonds (with maturities 1,2,3,4,5 years) which I calculated the yield curve for 10 days. I also calculated the forward rates from the yield rates. Now I've been told to calculate the ...
8
votes
2answers
3k views

Kelly criterion and Sharpe ratio

Whats the relationship between the Kelly criterion and the Sharpe ratio? $$ f=\frac{p(b+1)-1}{b} $$ where $f$ is a percentage of how much capital to place on a bet, $p$ is the probability of ...
-4
votes
2answers
219 views

How to use mean-variance weights in practice (when going short is allowed)? [closed]

I have calculated my optimal portfolio weights following the mean-variance framework where I go $w_1$ in the risky asset and $1-w_1$ in the risk free rate. I get the following result: $w_1$ = 1.5, ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Position management and market-making techniques

Suppose, there is a HF strategy (agent) that is based on order book microstructure, and it is able to make good executions locally. More formally, in average its execution price is better than asset ...
5
votes
4answers
2k views

Usage of Random forests in Quantitative analysis of stocks

I have a question about Random forests and how they could be utilized in trading? I heard Random forests are used for classification, is that accurate? If so, could someone give an example of what ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

How to calculate implied volatility and greeks in Bull Put Spread option strategy?

Ok, obviously I am buying lower strike put and selling higher strike put. What is the recommended volatility and greeks to consider in my trade? Volatility: Average volatility between both legs? ...
5
votes
3answers
227 views

How to work out weights for a portfolio based on an inverse ratio with positive and negative values?

I am trying to work out how to determine weights for the assets in order to form a portfolio. The ratio I am using is EV/EBIT, hence the smaller the better. The problem is I don't know how to handle ...
1
vote
0answers
116 views

What to do with linear regression or regression splines outside of the training range?

This is a cross-post from here In my question on a load forecast model using temperature data as covariates I was advised to use regression splines. This really seems to be a/the solution. Now I ...
7
votes
6answers
12k views

How to calculate stock move probability based on option implied volatility and time to expiration? (Monte Carlo simulation)

I am looking for one line formula ideally in Excel to calculate stock move probability based on option implied volatility and time to expiration? I have already found a few complex samples which took ...
2
votes
3answers
134 views

What do these maturity codes mean?

In fitting a curve I found that people are using the following tenors: U1 Z1 H2 M2 U2 Z2 2Y Could you please let me know what exact time periods they stand for? Is there a web page describing ...
6
votes
1answer
527 views

Calculating VaR/CVaR on high frequency data and returns

As we converge on the minute time scale and below for our unit time interval, the return distributions tend to be leptokurtotic and more discretized (due to fixed values such as minimum price ...
3
votes
4answers
684 views

How much does a Grid Computing software cost?

So far, I have been performing computations either on my own computer, or using an in-house scheduler that basically chooses a one of the employees' available workstations to run tasks in the ...
2
votes
1answer
864 views

Predict Quadratic Trend in Time Series

Can anyone kindly point out if I made any mistakes in making predictions using quadratic regression model in time series? I called the predict() function with the appropriate data vector and model, ...
4
votes
0answers
136 views

Simple question concerning Jump process (Lévy process) model for a risky actif price process [closed]

Consider $X= \left( X_t \right)_{t\geq 0}$ is a Lévy process whose characteristic triplet is $\left( \gamma, \sigma ^2, \nu \right)$ and where its Lévy measure is $$ \nu \left( dx\right) = A ...
3
votes
1answer
233 views

Why are there different estimators for stock volatility? (realized variance, RAV, etc)

I am very confused about why different volatility estimators (RV, RAV, BPV, etc) exist. If the goal is to find the best estimator for stock volatility, and volatility is latent, how do I know which ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Derivation of Ito's Lemma

My question is rather intuitive than formal and circles around the derivation of Ito's Lemma. I have seen in a variety of textbooks that by applying Ito's Lemma, one can derive the exact solution of a ...
12
votes
1answer
411 views

Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
6
votes
4answers
698 views

What are the options for a mathematician to break into QF without working for a fund?

I have a degree in mathematics, and I've worked as a statistician and done some programming work. I'm very strong in my math/stats/programming background and have browsed some QF books, and I'm very ...
4
votes
2answers
653 views

Statistical significance of a pair trading strategy

How can I test the significance of a pair trading strategy, i.e. that the H0 is "The strategy has no predicting power". I was considering to use the technique in Evidence Based Technical Analysis ...
7
votes
2answers
1k views

Simulation of GBM

I have a question regarding the simulation of a GBM. I have found similar questions here but nothing which takes reference to my specific problem: Given a GBM of the form $dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + ...
0
votes
1answer
198 views

Numerical difficulties in fitting option prices

In [1], the authors state that "Although some studies apply the curve-fitting method directly to option prices, the severely nonlinear relationship between option price and strike price often leads to ...
2
votes
2answers
179 views

Liquidity in a market risk model based on historical simulation

I would like to model liquidity effects in my risk model which is based on historical simulation. I would like to develop a practical solution that still captures liquidity effects. Most probably I ...
4
votes
0answers
205 views

Estimation of ranks of log-returns via copula

I have successfully chosen and estimate a copula for the ranks of the log-returns of my actions. My question is, since I have worked with the ranks instead of directly the log-returns (in order to be ...
12
votes
3answers
1k views

Topological methods in finance

Recently a promising start-up (Ayasdi) has made headlines. They are a spin-off of the Applied and Computational Algebraic Topology group of Stanford University (ComTop). What they basically do is ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Robust Bayesian portfolio optimization in matlab?

I am working through this paper. I want to implement the robust Bayesian optimization (see pages 6 onward) in Matlab using fmincon. Here is a brief overview of my problem: Let $\alpha$ be the ...
3
votes
2answers
449 views

What are the advantages/disadvantages of OHLC over VWAP?

I would like to ask about maybe obvious thing for many people, but cannot find a good answer for it. In many, many places I see OHLC data along with OHLC analysis tools. As I deduce step by step in ...
4
votes
2answers
370 views

How to quickly sketch a second order greek profile for a vanilla position?

Assume that you are given an arbitrary payoff profile for European vanilla position (e.g. butterfly). How to make a back of the envelope sketch of a second order greek profile for it (i.e. plot ...
4
votes
1answer
370 views

How do you estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data?

What are some good ways to estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data (including full market depth)? Obviously, a naive approach is that you want the strategy's returns to exceed its ...
1
vote
1answer
188 views

Are Papers and Funds reporting Monthly drawdowns using daily granularity?

I'm curious as to how many academic studies and industry white papers are actually using daily data to report intramonth drawdowns; specifically, when the papers are often reporting monthly signals, ...
11
votes
1answer
477 views

A non parametric study of VaR with kernel density

I'm working in order to compare the calculation of the VaR between the methodology of copulas and kernel density, all this by using the software r. The process that I follow is: Obtain a sample ...
0
votes
1answer
712 views

Liquidity detection based strategy in HFT

This article contains the following statement. In terms of liquidity detection, traders intend to decipher whether there are large orders existing in a matching engine by sending out small ...
3
votes
4answers
1k views

What is the industry standard Quant Finance modeling library for F#

If it exists, has been agreed on, and F# programmers have used it extensively, I would like to know what is the industry standard Quant Finance library for F#. What typical finance scenario(s) have ...
2
votes
4answers
189 views

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset?

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset ? (or in the case of options $max(0,a(p-b)^{2}-c)$) I'm not very strict here but I only want to know ...
5
votes
1answer
432 views

Robust-Bayesian optimization in Markowitz framework

Suppose we are in the mean-variance optimization setting with a vector of returns $\alpha$ and a vector of portfolio weights $\omega$. In a robust setting, the returns are assumed to lie in some ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views

Copula models and the distribution of the sum of random variables without Monte Carlo

There is a vast literature on copula modelling. Using copulas I can describe the joint law of two (and more) random variables $X$ and $Y$, i.e. $F_{X,Y}(x,y)$. Very often in risk management (credit ...
5
votes
3answers
723 views

Is there a copula that can estimate negative tail dependence?

I have encountered numerous copula estimators that can estimate time-invariant and time-varying linear and non-linear correlations on the interval $[-1,1]$, and these estimators are fully consistent ...

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