0
votes
2answers
168 views

Estimate weekly, yearly quantities from finite samples

I'd like to estimate from a daily prices serie $P_t$ with $N$ observations a quantity such as the variance of the weekly returns. I will use $\ln\left(\frac{P_{T+5}}{P_T}\right)$ assuming 5 days in a ...
-1
votes
1answer
198 views

Converting time series returns into euro

I am trying to convert various series of returns into one currency (euro). I saw from aprevious post that soemone suggested using conversion factors, where would I find these? Also, given that the ...
-3
votes
1answer
94 views

Why is there no closed-form equation for XIRR?

Everything I have read about XIRR (e.g., as calculated in Excel) says that there is no closed-form equation and it must be calculated by iterated approximation. Could someone give a brief ...
2
votes
0answers
106 views

Do some option pricing models allow for misspecification and what does it mean?

This is to some extent a theoretical question and maybe we can work together to produce some input and output. Diverse option pricing models are reported to be misspecified in various studies. One ...
0
votes
1answer
131 views

Calculating company-level market capitalisations from share quantities and values

I want to calculate company-level market cap values for stock exchanges listed by Bloomberg. I gather this can be calculated as the product of share price and the total of shares in circulation. But ...
5
votes
2answers
179 views

A question on Ito

If we know the dynamics of $S$, then we can estimate the value of $S$ at a time point, $t$. Here, I have a question concerning how to solve for $S_t$ by Itô because I obtained different results by ...
-2
votes
1answer
423 views

Order book depth views preferences: order-by-order vs. total aggregated volume by price levels

Which is best? Or is it irrelevant? Hi! Considering Level 2 Data (Market Depth), I want to understand the advantages to have all the order book on an order-by-order basis (or tick-by-tick basis) ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

Is there a different test to check stationarity? [duplicate]

I am using the KPSS test to check stationarity of a financial time series. I would like to know if there is another test to confirm the stationarity. Any advice?
5
votes
0answers
423 views

Shrinkage Estimator for Newey-West Covariance Matrix

I like to apply the Newey-West covariance estimator for portfolio optmization which is given by $$ \Sigma = \Sigma(0) + \frac12 \left (\Sigma(1) + \Sigma(1)^T \right), $$ where $\Sigma(i)$ is the lag ...
7
votes
3answers
691 views

Black--Scholes hedging argument

I'm trying to understand the standard hedging argument to derive the Black--Scholes PDE. There's one aspect of the derivation which I can't get passed and I'd be very grateful for some clarification ...
6
votes
1answer
472 views

Value-at-Risk formula when using skewed-t distribution

I am trying to find a formula for the skewed-t VaR. For example the VaR formula for a t-distribution is $$ \sqrt{\frac{df-2}{df}} \times \Sigma{t} \times \mbox{quantitle}(t-\mbox{dist}, 0.01) + \mu ...
0
votes
3answers
2k views

How to calculate return rates with negative prices?

I'm dealing with electricity options and I'm considering the possibilty of negative prices. I want two estimate the historic volatility. However, an arithmetic mean doesn't feel appropriate and ...
4
votes
1answer
170 views

Statistical Power and Active Management

I was reading an article recently that pointed out the dangers of using statistical inference in evaluating active managers as the power of statistical tests diminishes with the variance of the ...
1
vote
2answers
649 views

Valuation of a Sinking Bond Fund

What would the schedule of payments be for a bond with a sinking fund? I know how to price a bond but how does the sinking fund play into it? ...
4
votes
3answers
368 views

How to most optimally perform currency conversions when backtesting on portfolio level?

I am currently expanding my own strategy profiling and testing platform which partly consists of a portfolio backtesting module. The backtest engine processes tick based data (quotes for currencies, ...
4
votes
1answer
247 views

How does out-of-sample option pricing work in practice?

When estimating in-sample option prices, one usually estimates the structural parameters $\theta_t$ using all information up to time $t$, and then prices the option at time $t$ using the obtained ...
-2
votes
1answer
481 views

How to look for fractals/harmonics patterns in time series?

I want to build trading systems based on two things: 1)Fractal Theory 2)Harmonics Pattern I have read the book : The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence By Mandelbrot ...
2
votes
2answers
240 views

Question on an approximation in pricing formula

I am reading the book An Introduction to Financial Option Valuation. The following on page 58 makes me confused: For the formula: $\exp \left\{ -1.96\sigma \sqrt{t}+(\mu-0.5 \sigma^2)t ...
-2
votes
1answer
228 views

DCF Zero Coupon Bond

Using a 30/360 day count what is the exact formula to discount this single zero coupon bond? ...
0
votes
0answers
832 views

fetch from yahoo! finance database - varying number of ticks

To test a model with real-life data, I used the fetch-function in matlab to connect to the database of yahoo! finance. My code to try and get 7 different assets' returns is the following: ...
5
votes
1answer
440 views

Definition of risk factors for market risk scenario testing

I am doing a research for stress testing in market risk. The usual process I found out for scenario testing is: Define risk factors upon the portfolio Define the desired scenarios Vary the risk ...
1
vote
1answer
120 views

right benchmark for an incompletely diversified international portfolio (for a CAPM): MSCI World or MSCI ACWI IMI?

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
1
vote
2answers
77 views

different amount of information on return correlations from shorter and longer periods?

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly (total) returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

how to chain monthly excess returns into annual?

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
4
votes
1answer
404 views

comparing total returns from various data vendors

I need to use various data sources to cover all of my data, and I am concerned by the discrepancies in total returns. Data vendors were helpful, but their simple documentation did not help resolve why ...
5
votes
2answers
5k views

How to tune Kalman filter's parameter?

I plan to use Kalman filter to estimate saving account amount. However, I'm a bit lost at how to tune the filter's parameters. Taking as the example from the Wikipedia page, basically there are ...
-3
votes
1answer
82 views

Total number of currency transactions [closed]

All of the Forex volume/transactions are always reported in total dollar amount. I am interested in the number of individual trades. Where can I find this? Granularity doesn't matter, ...
0
votes
2answers
1k views

30360 Daycount Count Convention to find NPV for Bonds

Using a 30/360 day count convention, how can you value the NPV of these cash flows and the discount factor? I know how to discount cash flows but how does it differ using a 30/360 approach? What is ...
5
votes
1answer
2k views

Cointegrating relationships - Johansen in R

I read the posts, How to interpret results of Johansen Test? and How to interpret the eigenmatrix from a Johansen cointegration test? But still I am quite confused by the output. I have a project with ...
1
vote
1answer
118 views

What is the smart way to reallocate money?

We are running a portfolio of fund managers in our fund. When one of the managers hits the max DD constraint we pull money from this manager. This may happen in the middle of the allocation period and ...
1
vote
1answer
461 views

Convexity adjustment

I have a problem with the underlying assumption in the future/forward convexity adjustment. If I understand correctly, the assumption is, if I am long ED, I earn money when rates go down and invest ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Normal vs Lognormal Short Rate models

Are there any general arguments to decide whether it is better to use a model with a normal or a lognormal distribution of the short rate? E.g. Hull-White with a normal and Black-Karasinski with a ...
2
votes
1answer
338 views

Recovery rate in a structured bond

I need to model the recovery rate of a structured bond whose expected cash flows, if the issuer remains solvent, will be very low. For instance, assume that I need to estimate the recovery amount of a ...
0
votes
1answer
135 views

Am I reading this correctly? probability way too small with BS model

For a stock trading at $27, $28 strike, 0% interest, 15% annual vol, and one day until expiration there is about a 1 in 17000 chance of it being exercised? $d_2 = ...
0
votes
0answers
171 views

close form for stochastic integral

I am new to stochastic calculus. Can I know how to compute the close-form solution for $$\int_0^t \exp(\alpha s - \sigma W_s) \; ds$$ and $$\int_0^t \exp(\alpha s - \sigma W_s) \; dW_s.$$ I encounter ...
-4
votes
1answer
699 views

What is (High-Low) and (Open-Close) spread? [closed]

Spread is the difference between Bid and Ask. I'm confused what is High-Low Spread and Open-Close spread?
-2
votes
2answers
621 views

How to get/estimate ask/bid price for backtesting for OHLC data? [closed]

As you know, most of the EOD data available have only OHLC price. I used to do back-testing using the Close price as both bid and ask. however, in real world, the bid and ask spread is huge and the ...
1
vote
0answers
292 views

Fluid dynamics for order book depth modelling

Would someone be able to give me an idea what type of fluid dynamics I could look at for modelling the order book? My background is more signals-related maths (correlation, covariance, fourier etc). ...
2
votes
1answer
498 views

corporate action data

Can someone recommend a good source for corporate action data? I need at the very least: ticker changes, dividends, splits, acquisitions and delistings. I historically used Bloomberg Back Office and ...
-4
votes
1answer
136 views

Is there an API to perform request about stocks and financial derivatives? [closed]

Is there an API to make a request such as: all the companies which thier P/E ratio is greater than 50 ? I know I can crawl google finance and have it locally on my ...
0
votes
1answer
125 views

Symmetry of option-implied probability density

I was wondering whether the option implied probability density of the log returns: $x = \ln\left(\frac{S}{S_0}\right)$ with S the value of a certain stock, is always symmetric ? I was asking myself ...
1
vote
1answer
300 views

Help with understanding a normal distribution/probability question

Could someone please help me translate what this is saying on page P15, section 4.2: http://www.ntuzov.com/Nik_Site/Niks_files/Research/papers/stat_arb/Ahmed_2009.pdf Specifically: When the ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Tools/R code for predicting Dragon-Kings

The theory of the so called Dragon-Kings, esp. by Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich), basically states that financial crises and crashes are predictable (contrary to the theory of black swans). The ...
1
vote
0answers
105 views

Insignificant or significant explanatory power over risk adjusted returns?

Currently iam working on my master thesis which is about risk adjusted returns in the Asia Pacific REIT market. The goal of the paper is to determine/find variables that conceive explanatory power ...
1
vote
2answers
366 views

how to calculate more efficient volatility figure than historical volatility?

can we use alpha value to calculate option price instead of historical volatility. And if we can please explain how. I am doing my MMS in Finance and this for a project i am doing. the project is ...
2
votes
3answers
186 views

The reason behind the selection of a 1 standard deviation movement for self financing delta hedge

I'm learning this material and I can follow the derivation of the BSM PDE fairly well. The only problem I have is there is an assumption in the derivation (that I am reading) that a stock price ...
2
votes
1answer
102 views

To understand FOMC events and its impact on the market

Last month when FOMC meeting decision went out that fed would start to exit QE3, immediately we saw a deleveraging effect: SPY went down, GLD went down, and LQD (bond) went down, but US dollars went ...
0
votes
1answer
422 views

Non-intuitive correlation between S&P sector indexes and economic indicators

I am trying to understand how changes in economic indicators like Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, and Consumer Sentiment affect the portfolio values. For that I want to measure the correlation ...
2
votes
1answer
501 views

annual excess returns from CAPM on monthly total returns

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Counterintuitive time varying Beta with Kalman filter

If you're used to play with R, you'll enjoy the following reproducible code: ...

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