1
vote
0answers
4 views

reference question about portfolio optimization

I know the "classical" modern portfolio theory. However I have quite a lot of different sources. It seems that there is not a book which cover this topic in a rigorous way: theory application ...
3
votes
3answers
68 views

How to deal with extreme cases in normal random numbers generation?

In order to generate normal random numbers, one usually generates random numbers following a uniform distribution $Z \sim \mathcal{U}(0,1)$ and then applies the reverse CDF function on them ...
1
vote
1answer
21 views

Opposite of Tail-Risk Hedge (Established Vocabulary)

I'm working on a client memo explaining several approaches to equity hedging, and I'm looking for a not-too-technical term for a hedging strategy where I try to keep options near the money, as to have ...
3
votes
3answers
52 views

What are the implication of a negative risk-free rate on SML?

What happens to the Security market line (within the CAPM model) when the risk-free rate turns negative?
1
vote
1answer
86 views

What is the intuition behind the fact that Modified duration = Macaulay Duration / (1+r)?

I understand the derivation of both:take dP/dR and divide by P which will give you both 1) modified duration OR 2) macaulay duration / (1+r) (notice the weighted average time built into the ...
5
votes
1answer
324 views

Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
10
votes
1answer
222 views

Which interest rate model for which product

Given the multitude of existing interest rate models (ranging from simple to very complex) it would be interesting to know when the additional complexity actually makes sense. The models I have in ...
0
votes
2answers
133 views

Use of geometric mean for average return of several indices

Can anyone give any reference for using the geometric mean to average the returns from several indices? Note, this question is not about the usual use of geometric mean to obtain the average return ...
0
votes
2answers
44 views

Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
2
votes
2answers
132 views

SVCJ (SVJJ) Duffie et. al Model implementation in Matlab

I'm attempting to implement aforementioned SVCJ model by Duffie et al in MATLAB. so far without success. It's supposed to price vanilla (european) calls . parameters provided, the expected price is: ...
0
votes
2answers
49 views

How is the price of a bond actually determined?

How the price of a bond is actually determined? Is it the supply-demand that determines the price first and then the YTM is calculated on the back of this for that bond. Or is it that the changes to ...
0
votes
2answers
79 views

Historic Value at Risk - Ratios vs. Differences

Quick Summary on Historic VaR Let $S_0,...,S_n$ be the daily values of some stock (where $S_0$ is the current value). Then for $i=1,\ldots,n$ we let $$\hat r_i:=S_{i-1}/S_i \quad \text{and}\quad \hat ...
1
vote
1answer
163 views

How to get Geometric Brownian Motion's closed-form solution in Black-Scholes model?

The Black Scholes model assumes the following dynamics for the underlying, well known as the Geometric Brownian Motion: $$dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma dW_t)$$ Then the solution is given: ...
0
votes
0answers
54 views

plotting High Frequency finance data using quantmod [on hold]

Hi I have data in XTS format like this ...
2
votes
0answers
42 views

How to price a Swing Option?

I'm working in the commodity market and I've to price Swing Options with MATLAB, preferably with finite element. Has anyone already priced these kind of derivatives? I'm thinking about using the ...
1
vote
3answers
203 views

How is PnL calculated

In Fixed Income, I know that bonds PnL are evaluated depending on where the price lies on price/yield curve at the end of the day, compared to where it started from at beginning of the day. The ...
2
votes
2answers
3k views

Risk Parity portfolio construction

If I would like to construct a fully invested long only portfolio with two asset classes (Bonds $B$ and Stocks $S$) based on the concept of 'risk parity' the weights $W$ of my portfolio would be the ...
2
votes
0answers
29 views

Comparison of multicurve calibration methods

It seems that there are mayor softwares around offering a multicurve framework based on bootstrap. I find this puzzling nowadays, given the distinct advantages of best-fit optimization methods and ...
4
votes
1answer
95 views

Worked examples of applying Ito's lemma

In most textbooks Ito's lemma is derived (on different levels of technicality depending on the intended audience) and then only the classic examples of Geometric Brownian motion and the Black-Scholes ...
7
votes
4answers
130 views

Does Modern Portfolio Theory align with EMH?

I came to the conclusion that in literature Markowitz' Portfolio Theory is believed to be compliant with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The weakest form states that the current price fully ...
1
vote
2answers
75 views

Pricing Principle 1

In Tomas Björk's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this Pricing Principle. Is the one in red supposed to be the proof of the Pricing Principle 1? Or merely an intuitive ...
1
vote
3answers
56 views

Arbitrage free implies complete market?

In Tomas Björk's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition It seems that to show that the model is complete, we must show that the claims are reachable. That is, we ...
-1
votes
2answers
182 views

How to compute $\mathbb{E} \left[ (W_s + W_t - 2W_0)^2 \right]$?

The solution to the SDE $$dx_t= -kx_t dt + cx_t dW_t$$ is $$x_t = x_0 e^{\left(c - \frac{k^2}{2} \right)t}e^{-k W_t}$$ with mean $$\mathbb{E} \left[ x_t \right] = x_0 e^{\left(c - ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

How does the Bitcoin forex work? [migrated]

Does it work differently in relation to a regular forex because of its underlying technology? How can the market calculate its value?
1
vote
0answers
25 views

Questions related to the banking crisis during the European sovereign debt crisis

I am studying the European Sovereign Debt crisis and I have the following questions which I am struggling to find examples for: 1) I have heard that during the sovereign debt crisis, European ...
2
votes
2answers
114 views

How to work out weights for a portfolio based on an inverse ratio with positive and negative values?

I am trying to work out how to determine weights for the assets in order to form a portfolio. The ratio I am using is EV/EBIT, hence the smaller the better. The problem is I don't know how to handle ...
0
votes
2answers
68 views

How can I calculate Fama-French betas for a particular stock?

For a particular stock, what's the simplest way to calculate betas for the Fama-French factors SMB and HML?
0
votes
0answers
17 views

Finding Trailing Twelve Months on a month between two quarterly reporting periods [on hold]

I can clearly understand the concept of Trailing Twelve Months or TTM. However i always had a missing piece on fully understanding TTM. e.g If we have a corporation that reports on March(Q1), ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

Calculate bond yield in python

I want to run the newton method on a large dataset to calculate bond yield. Below is the code I created using a loop. I need to run it on ~50 million lines and the loop is quite unwieldy. Is there a ...
2
votes
1answer
281 views

Robust Returns-Based Style Analysis

Sharpe's Return-Based Style Analysis is an interesting theory but flawed in practice when working with long-short funds or funds that are changing strategies over shorter periods of time due to the ...
4
votes
2answers
466 views

VaR for corporate bonds

I am trying to create a simple risk calculation for the portfolio (ignoring correlations for the moment). I have some corporate bonds with limited daily price changes. Any one have ideas how I can get ...
3
votes
2answers
684 views

How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
1
vote
0answers
13 views

code assistance - how to bootstrap and plot paths with a mixed model [migrated]

I created an Arima (3,1,1) model using the steps below. I was able to create a nonparametric model, but now I would like bootstrap for the created model (model 3). Also I'd like to plot the paths of ...
3
votes
2answers
197 views

selecting test data for neural networks

I have been working on a neural network based on certain technical indicators. As people familiar with neural networks would know after developing a hypothesis, the developer is also supposed to ...
0
votes
1answer
36 views

list of ADR's by volume or market cap

I'm looking for a list of ADR's (for a simulation) that I can screen by either market cap or volume? If anyone knows of a free way to get such a list it would be much appreciated.
1
vote
3answers
131 views

Handling Missing values in stocks returns when estimating the co variance matrix

What is the best way to handle missing values when stocks did not exist for the entire historical period?.
0
votes
3answers
171 views

What Is A Good Success Rate Using Machine Learning For A Beginner?

I know this question will be quickly destroyed and my account summarily banned, but I just have to ask: For a trader using machine-learning algorithms (SVMs, ANNs, GAs, Decision Trees) for ...
7
votes
3answers
1k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

forecasting crash time of KLSE index (1991-1994)

Price deviation = financial bubbles. i try to fit the following stock price index to predict recession. I couldn't fit the model with the data(Data are not available in yahoo finance for the ...
16
votes
7answers
17k views

What's the difference between volatility and variance?

How do they differ in what they imply about an underlying's (or any variable's) movement?
0
votes
2answers
100 views

Is stock price priced in the uncertainty?

Consider a one step binomial tree model for stock price. The classical setup is as below: At time $t=0$, the stock price is $S_0$. At time $t=1$, the stock has probability $p$ to jump up to price ...
2
votes
1answer
102 views

ETFs have lower tracking error than Futures?

I used the daily returns of SPX Index, SPY US Equity, and SPA Index. I then calculate their standard deviation as hedging instruments with respect to SPX Index, i.e., (spx_ret - spy_ret) or (spx_ret - ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Correlation of Dividend Yield Index/Stock

I need your experience and intuition about dividend yields. Indeed, I would to know if the dividend yield of and Index is correlated with the dividend yields of it's componenets separately? The ...
-1
votes
1answer
44 views

Math basics of Equally-weighted Risk contributions

i'm writing my BA Thesis about "Equally-weighted Risk contributions". Can anyone recommend math books for further understanding of Risk contributions?
2
votes
3answers
646 views

Library for interactive financial charts

For my recent project I am looking to build a software capable of visualizing financial charts in a dynamically and interactive matter. The workflow is as follows: I gather data from my data ...
4
votes
1answer
269 views

How to compute the Radon-Nikodym derivative?

Suppose $B(t)$ is a standard Brownian motion, and $B_{1}(t)$ is given by $dB_{1}(t)=\mu dt+dB(t)$. Suppose $P$ is the Wiener measure induced by $B(t)$ on the $C[0,\infty)$, and $P_{1}$ is the Law ...
-4
votes
0answers
38 views

Where Can I Find Risk Modelling Functions? [on hold]

I'm looking for functions that take the historical value of an asset as the input and return how much risk/uncertainty is associated with the investment. I've been searching for a while but haven't ...
0
votes
1answer
164 views

interpreting huge jumps

i have been working on this trading system that uses digital filters to generate signals. the system works fine during normal market hours. but it goes haywire when there is news release. i have ...
0
votes
1answer
51 views

Logic behind Gordon Growth Model in a DCF analysis?

Sorry, I wanted to ask this on the finance/money forum, but they don't support LaTeX there. Let's say we are valuing a company using the DCF methodology with a 5-year projection period. We project ...
11
votes
2answers
960 views

Modelling with negative interest rates

For a project, I am interested to model the impact of recently negative interest bonds on the portfolio. The literature on modelling negative interest rates is limited, and the only theory I could ...

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