0
votes
0answers
8 views

How to reduce the variability of investment returns by increasing average expected return? [on hold]

I will illustrate my question with a simple example: Say a stock called ABC is currently trading at 100.00, with an average expected return of 0% per year, and has a 50% probability of touching 90.00 ...
3
votes
1answer
204 views

Is it possible to model general wrong way risk via concentration risk?

General wrong way risk (GWWR) is defined as due to a positive correlation between the level of exposure and the default probability of the counterparty, due to general market factors. (Specific wrong ...
2
votes
1answer
147 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
0
votes
0answers
8 views

Overnight charges for brokers holding stocks [migrated]

I'm trying to learn about stock markets. I eventually want to invest a small amount over a long period. I notice on a lot of broker sites they charge an overnight fee for any stock held over night. I ...
0
votes
1answer
19 views

Median value for geometric brownian motion simulation

I'm trying to simulate stock prices using GBM. I am using the following formula, and MATLAB function, to determine the stock prices: $\nu = \mu - \frac{\sigma^{2}}{2}$; $S = S0*\text{[ones(1,nsims); ...
5
votes
2answers
97 views

How to annualise the volatility of non-iid returns?

I have a series of monthly log-returns; let's assume the log-returns are normally distributed, but exhibit significant serial correlation. In the case of normal, i.i.d. returns, I can annualize the ...
0
votes
1answer
55 views

is Sum of P&L equal to portfolio value

For a portfolio containing FX options, would the sum of P&L for each option be the portfolio value?
1
vote
1answer
69 views

Historical Data on $/yen forward exchange rates

Would anyone happen to know where I can find historical forward exchange rate data between the yen and dollar?
2
votes
1answer
34 views

Do we need Feller condition if volatility process jumps?

It is fairly known that in affine processes, as Heston model \begin{equation} \begin{aligned} dS_t &= \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW^{S}_{t} \\ dv_t &= k(\theta - v_t) dt + \xi \sqrt{v_t} ...
1
vote
2answers
22 views

TAQ NYSE OpenBook

Where can I get/buy the TAQ NYSE OpenBook for specific stocks on specific days? I don't need a whole year of all stocks. I just want to enter a day and a stock, so I can download the order book data ...
2
votes
1answer
188 views

what is a typical way forex brokerages can provide cheap leverage for their customers?

I'm not very well read in the area of high finance but I'm curious how forex brokerages are able to provide the backing for leverage that they can provide to customers. Is it possible to do this ...
5
votes
1answer
558 views

Risk Budgets with Target Portfolio Volatility

I'm working through the implementation of a risk budgeting approach as described in the recent Roncalli paper. The idea is that the portfolio manager sets a contribution of total portfolio volatility ...
-1
votes
0answers
25 views

How much less likely is a stop loss to be touched/hit after increasing expected return?

Firstly, let's say we have a stock ABC currently trading at $100.00 that has: (A) an expected return of 0% per year and (B) standard deviation of 20% per year Given these stats, the stock has a 50% ...
3
votes
3answers
156 views

How to work out weights for a portfolio based on an inverse ratio with positive and negative values?

I am trying to work out how to determine weights for the assets in order to form a portfolio. The ratio I am using is EV/EBIT, hence the smaller the better. The problem is I don't know how to handle ...
1
vote
0answers
19 views

Log returns and GARCH models

I try to model currency rates volatility using GARCH models through the RUGARCH package in R. Starting from the observed currency rate series, I compute the log-return through: ...
4
votes
2answers
439 views

Malliavin Calculus

From a quant point of view, how would you explain Malliavin calculus in few words ? I have the level to take these courses, but won't be able to do it next year, so I want to know what I am missing. ...
1
vote
1answer
65 views

LMM. Calibration to swaptions by Brigo and Morini. Volatility of swaption that matures at T=0

I'm reading Brigo D., Mercurio F. Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice (Springer, 2006)(ISBN 3540221492) and also a source article on LMM cascade calibration to swaptions by Brigo and Morini. I ...
3
votes
1answer
33 views

What are the empirical limitations to testing market efficiency?

I have encountered a rather elegant argument about the limitations of empirically testing for market efficiency, involving the central point that we do not know whether a result is due to the "true ...
1
vote
2answers
45 views

Free access to official real-time and intraday data for exchanges [duplicate]

Where can I obtain all official real-time and intraday data for exchanges — NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, OTC, CME, etc? I feel like the raw data is out there to be consumed and parsed at no cost (except the ...
1
vote
1answer
164 views

How to express the Black Derman & Toy Model in a $dr=A\,dt+B\, dW$ form?

The Black Derman & Toy (BDT) model is given by $$d(\ln\,r)=\left(\theta(t)-\frac {d(\ln\sigma(t))}{dt}\ln r\right)\,dt+\sigma(t) \, dW.$$ How can one rewrite the BDT model as $dr=A\,dt+B\, dW$, ...
8
votes
1answer
300 views

What good papers of short term (<30 seconds) volatility estimation [duplicate]

I am looking for good papers of short term (<30 sec) volatility estimation AND short term volatility forecasting. Do you have something in mind ?
7
votes
5answers
247 views

Can classical economics explain *any* of the so-called stylized facts of finance?

I am doing some reading on the (historical) emergence of the Black-Scholes implied volatility smile for index options (yes - post 87), and I stumbled across an economic paper attempting to explain the ...
2
votes
1answer
39 views
+50

How consequential are violations of the efficient diversification assumption of asset pricing models?

When using asset pricing models such as the CAPM or the Fama-French four factor model to determine the risk-adjusted return of a portfolio, does this strictly require efficient diversification of the ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

What are the units of the variables appearing in a standard stochastic differential equation for a Wiener process?

The Black Scholes model assumes the following form for the Wiener process describing the evolution of the stock price S: $dS=\mu S dt + \sigma S dX$ Clearly $S$ ...
1
vote
1answer
36 views

How does Reuters quote caps?

I'm wondering which curves should I use when passing from the Implied volatility to prices. When I read an implied volatility (for instance 3Y Cap strike 0.5%) the discounts and forward rate ...
0
votes
0answers
6 views

GARCH models on stata [on hold]

How do I impose non negativity conditions of GARCH models on Stata? when I fit a type of GARCH models in stata, some of coefficients became negative. what should i do about this? another is that the ...
2
votes
2answers
154 views

Logic behind Gordon Growth Model in a DCF analysis?

Sorry, I wanted to ask this on the finance/money forum, but they don't support LaTeX there. Let's say we are valuing a company using the DCF methodology with a 5-year projection period. We project ...
2
votes
1answer
41 views

Maximizing utility subject to a wealth constraint

Let $\tilde{E}$ be the risk neutral expectation, and $X_t$ the wealth that time t and $R$ the return of a risk-free investment. Consider maximizing the function $EU(X_N)$ subject to ...
1
vote
2answers
189 views

Where do these Orders come from and what do they mean?

Good morning! I was looking at an order book yesterday and saw orders which I haven't seen before. Normally an order in the order book consists of the total volume, the price and how many ...
0
votes
0answers
21 views

What is the best real time data feed - IQFeed, kinetick.com, etc?

This is my first post, and I know of quant's vast knowledge base of the users. Thanks in advance for any assistance. Any quantitative testing, benchmarking, expected lag, true numbers comparing all ...
2
votes
2answers
80 views

Arbitrage and dominant strategies

If there is no arbitrage there is no dominant trading strategy, but there may be arbitrage opportunities even if there are no dominant trading strategies. Could you explain this statement and bring ...
2
votes
1answer
77 views

ARIMA model, cannot get rid of low order ACF spike

I've gone through all the steps to fit a good ARIMA model - I plotted the data, I looked at the ADF tests, I looked at the ACF plot with no AR and MA terms just a constants. I came up with an ...
4
votes
3answers
215 views

multiperiod optimization using R

I'm interested in multistage optimization problems. Are there any good R packages around to solve such problems over time? I'm not at all an expert in it, so maybe someone knows a good paper / lecture ...
0
votes
1answer
29 views

Critical Appraisal of Approaches countering Parameter Uncertainty in Portfolio Optimization

It is very hard to come up with legit and solid advantages and drawbacks of the various approaches wich are trying to counteract parameter uncertainty in portfolio optimization procedures. In my ...
4
votes
1answer
213 views

Distribution of Geometric Brownian Motion

Please let me know where I have been mistaken! Let the SDE satisfied by the GBM $S(t)$ be $$ \frac{dS(t)}{S(t)} = \mu dt + \sigma dW(t). $$ Then, the underlying BM $X(t)$ will satisfy $$ dX(t) = ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
1
vote
1answer
48 views

Technical Analysis in FX: literature on effective methods

I am trying to use technical analysis method (Kagi and Renko method in particular) to analyse my high frequency data. I applied those methods over 1 year, 2 years and 5 years high frequency data. I ...
1
vote
1answer
72 views

Python code to download historical firm data

I am looking for a Python code that scraps a website to download historical firm data such as market capitalization, dividend-yield, and so on. I have a code that downloads the current firm data from ...
1
vote
1answer
42 views

Am I in a long or short position in this case? (Cross hedging)

An airline expects to purchase 2 million gallons of jet fuel in 1 month and decides to use heating oil futures for hedging. The variance of the heating oil futures price is 1,5 times bigger then the ...
2
votes
2answers
108 views

Is there a way to adjust R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with EWMA or GARCH method?

Is there a way to upgrade R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with more risk sensitive approaches like EWMA or GARCH? Or is there another R package which can handle the issue?
1
vote
1answer
47 views

ICE oil Future Markers

i have seen Brent oil future singapore marker many times. however, i wonder what is the reason for introducing different markers in the future market. FYI - LINK
1
vote
1answer
287 views

What is Prompt Date Structure?

In LME website Prompt Date Structure is explained as this. Why there are prompt dates? LME trading calendar isn't universal to all other calanedars found in the market. So how do "Non-tradable dates ...
4
votes
5answers
2k views

Call vs. Put Option

I have two interrelated questions that have been bothering me for some time. I have read all the stuff online and it still doesn't make sense to me: Let us assume: 0% interest rate (both hedge ...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

Key Rate Duration for MBSs greater than Key Rate Tenor

Key Rate Durations (KRD) are essentially some fixed income instrument's price sensitivity to a non-parallel shift in interest rates (i.e., a shift at the "Key" Rate). For example, a 10-year bond's ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views

Is this process predictable or not?

Consider a market model with two assets which are modeled as usual by the stochastic process $S^0$ and $S^1$, that is adapted to the filtration. Can anyone tell if this process is predictable or ...
2
votes
1answer
93 views

Do people hedge with leveraged ETFs intraday? How?

Seems that the answer to the first part should be yes, but haven't seen any references or examples. E.g. suppose I want to hedge XLF position with FAZ. Do people use close to current returns, or just ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Calculating short/long order percentages?

I have a feed in real time that lists the ask and bid orders. Each order consists of a value and a quantity. I want to calculate the percentage of short orders from the total orders in terms of ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

list of ADR's by volume or market cap

I'm looking for a list of ADR's (for a simulation) that I can screen by either market cap or volume? If anyone knows of a free way to get such a list it would be much appreciated.
1
vote
1answer
59 views

If the risk neutral probability measure and the real probability measure should coincide

Sorry if this may be a stupid question. I have not had that much mathematical finance, I've only learned about discrete time models. But lets for the argument say that you have a stochastic process ...
0
votes
3answers
108 views

Black scholes OTC

Let's say you want to find the fair price of a call option. One way is to use the black scholes formula. This assumes you can delta-hedge the underlying asset and the option to eliminate risk, and ...

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