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5

Have a look at this classic paper: Honey, I Shrunk the Sample Covariance Matrix by O. Ledoit and M. Wolf The abstract answers your question already: The central message of this article is that no one should use the sample covariance matrix for portfolio optimization. It is subject to estimation error of the kind most likely to perturb a ...


5

The estimation of a covariance matrix is unstable unless the number of historical observations $T$ is greater than the number of securities $N$ (5000 in your example). Consider that 10 years of data represents only 120 monthly observations and about 2500 daily observations. Depending on the application, using data dating farther back than 10 years may be ...


5

Transaction costs - even for banks, funds etc, every trade has an associated cost, so if you would be buying a small number of shares, it's probably cheaper to carry the risk and not make those small trades. The source data is imperfect, and contains noise. A lot of the smaller components are simply artefacts of that noise so it would be both an unnecessary ...


5

To clarify notation, you have an universe of $n=2000 \space$ stocks and two portfolio vectors $\mathbf{a},\mathbf{b}\in\mathbb{R}^{n}$ with $\left\|\mathbf{a}\right\|_{1}=\left\|\mathbf{b}\right\|_{1}=1$. Further, you have Estimators for the true Variance $\operatorname{Var}\left[\mathbf{a}\right]$ resp. $\operatorname{Var}\left[\mathbf{b}\right]$ and the ...


4

You can obtain the covariance between 2 portfolios by multiplying the row vector, containing the weights of portfolio A with the variance-covariance matrix of the assets and then multiplying with the column vector, containing the weights of assets in portfolio B. Equally you can set up a new portfolio A+B by creating a new column vector that contains the ...


4

If $\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix of all assets and $w$ is the column vector of weightings of the asset in a certain portfolio. Then $$ w^T \Sigma w = VAR $$ is the variance of the portfolio. The contribution to volatility of asset $i$ is given by $$ w_i (\Sigma w)_i/\sqrt{VAR}, $$ where $(\Sigma w)_i$ is the $i_{th}$ entry in the vector $\Sigma w$. Note ...


3

The formula is $$ \mu = \lambda CX $$ in your notation. You find it in many places, e.g. here. The assumption is that you know $\lambda$ which is a strong assumption. Furthermore it only holds if investors are unconstrained (long/short not long only). It is intuitive as it says that given the weighting the return expectation increases with risk aversion ...


3

One really nice book that comes to my mind is Little, Rubin, Statistical Analysis with Missing Data I read part of it but probably it is too much information in your case. For your application, i think you can categorize the problem into two possible subproblems: First, time series that have unequal starting points (when some stocks' history is ...


3

I am not sure if I understood your question correctly but I will try to answer it anyway. If you have a standard normal random vector $z \sim N(\mathbb{0},I_n)$ (where $z,0 \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times1}$ and $I_n \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$ is the identity matrix) and you want to transform it into a multivariate normal $x \sim N(\mu,\Sigma)$ you do it the ...


2

Go ahead and compute a sample covariance matrix with 5,000 stocks on a few years (or less) of daily or monthly returns data. This can be done almost instantly on a modern computer. There is a very good chance that this matrix will not be a covariance matrix. You can check by inspecting the eigenvalues. If any are negative then you don't have a covariance ...


2

Let there be n stocks, 2 portfolio a and b. c is a combined portfolio of portfolio a and portfolio b. $\Sigma $ is variance-covariance matrix of the n assets. Weight vectors for portfolios a and b are $$w_{pa},w_{pb}\in\mathbb{R}^{n} ,$$ $$\left\|w_{pa}\right\|_{1}=\left\|w_{pb}\right\|_{1}=1 $$ then $$ Var(a)= w_{pa}' \Sigma w_{pa} $$ $$Var(b)= w_{pb}' ...


2

@vanguard2k and @Theja provide useful information. In my experience, unequal starting points is most common, so I'll try to focus on that. The technique that @vanguard2k mentioned for unequal starting points can be thought of like a regression. You start with the longest available data and get the covariance matrix of that. For the next set of available ...


2

The clearest and most intuitive article I have seen so far is Kritzman et al., Regime Shifts: Implications for Dynamic Strategies in FAJ (May / June 2012) It not only shows how you can use HMM for financial modelling but it also goes through the actual estimation algorithm (Baum-Welch) step-by-step and even gives full Matlab-code. From the abstract: ...


2

One common "model" is to assume the correlation to be constant, such as in a CCC-MVGARCH model. If you want a review of different multivariate GARCH models, you could look at: Silvennoinen and Täräsvirta 2009, Multivariate Garch models, in Handbook of financial time series.


1

Not sure your question is about having a process for covariance or to have multivariate GARCH. The standard viewpoint on a stochastic volatility for covariance is to use a Whishart process. See for instance Philipov, A. and M. E. Glickman (2006, July) Multivariate stochastic volatility via wishart processes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 24 ...


1

I think you're looking for multivariate GARCH models of which this is an overview paper. Multivariate GARCH models have one big drawback: they are pretty hard to estimate due to the number of correlations. This paper by Caporin and McAleer might be of interest in that regard.


1

Yes. Correlations max out at 1. However if the correlation is near 1 and the volatility of the spot is significantly larger than the volatility of the future the hedge ratio will be greater than 1. The intuition is if that vol of the future is much smaller than the vol of the spot you might need a lot more futures to minimize the high spot variance.


1

A simpler question would be the following: suppose you want to find the covaraince between the returns of two stocks and each of their time series has missing values at different places. What is the best way to compute covariance here? One very sensible way to approach this is to throw away the observations where ony one of the stocks has a return value. Of ...


1

Your question is formulated in a very general way, this is why any answer will need to be general as well. In a nutshell and in full generality you need to estimate the joint distribution from your historical data since in most cases correlations alone are not sufficient to define the joint distribution. In a second step you can calculate the distribution ...



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