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12

There was a proxy called the ECU. You should be able to use the weights on the Wikipedia page to get a time series back to 1979. Alternatively, the St. Louis FRED also provides this time series.


8

In 1945 at Bretton Woods, the war-time allies agreed on an international gold standard to stabilise the world's economy. Gold was fixed at \$35 / ounce and all other currencies were pegged to that price via the US dollar. The US became the reserve currency of the world. The problems for the US began immediately. In order to ensure liquidity – an ...


6

OpenGamma has a good resource for market conventions.


6

Today (1 day after the fact) the following headline appeared in the Financial Times: "September Fed rate lift-off put in doubt, Fallout from China’s currency move turns market mood". If true, this would certainly explain why the USD declined (i.e. the interest rate rise that everyone expected has been postponed). However, in my experience it is very hard to ...


5

Certain regulations in a country might inhibit the values of a unit of currency from being the same within the borders of the country and outside. There might be foreign exchange or banking regulations. For example, the eurodollar rate is different from the dollar inside the US, since there are reserve requirements dictated by the Fed. Basically, same ...


5

Within the fixed income space, there's a lot of literature on PCA trading. The first 2-3 principal component factors (PCs) can typically explain 90-99% of the total variances in yield curve movement. It's also nice, because the first PC looks like a change in the overall level of the yield curve, the second PC looks like a slope change, while the third ...


4

Check out: "Universal hedging: Optimizing currency risk and reward in international equity portfolios," Fischer Black - Financial Analysts Journal, 1989. as well as many of the subsequent research that references this article (via Google Scholar, for instance). Good luck.


4

To answer this question, lets dive into some of the factors that generally determine foreign exchange rates. I've outlined the two of the most widely discussed factors below. Current account balance An economy's current account is a component of an economy's balance of payments and is a measure of the economy's financial transactions with the rest of the ...


3

for Japan, act/365 for the domestic market, and act/360 for the euroyen market. For swaps, fixed leg convention is 6m libor act/365, floating leg, if based on libor, is the 6m rate act/360, if tibor, then the 3m rate act/365.


3

It's because of onshore capital controls; units of currency cannot freely enter and leave the country and so currency held onshore (within the domain of the capital controls) is not fungible with currency held elsewhere. Hence, due to the limitations of arbitrage, those two currencies are not tightly coupled. They are related, since actual physical onshore ...


3

Yes, you can use e.g. the ECB daily official foreign exchange rate data as a reliable and consistent daily timeseries. ECB does a fixing at 14:15 CET, by some methodology they call a "daily concertation procedure". I don't easily find a description of the details (are they considering only traded prices, or bids and offers? How long of a time window ...


3

Most traders have no idea what N(d2) is. I see two possibilities (a) they're using the delta of the option for the relevant strike, as seen by whatever model they're using, or (b) they are pricing a digital put on the yuan, using the full skew structure (as a former trader, that's the way I'd do it).


2

2) you only take trading days for your analysis because taking in account days on which no price changes took place would shift results in a wrong direction. For exmple, you mostly take 250 trading days p.a. 3) Your time interval up to 2007 is okay and excludes the financial crisis, which is a non-normal circumstance. Therefore, your time interval can be ...


2

Amirsani, Here couple points how I would proceed: I would first look to divide your time series into different clusters, enough so that different market dynamics fall into different clusters. I guess you will not be trading a single asset and thus you will not just optimize over a single stock or options contract. I would strongly try to discourage from ...


2

You are not doing anything wrong. You just need to multiply the absolute return by the currency conversion factor. Example: You trade 200,000,000 yen notional and generate a return of 16% on that notional, then simply multiply 32,000,000 jpy gain by your conversion factor 0.0126 to yield a return of 403,200 USD. The return of 16% was generated on the ...


2

first of all, there is nothing wrong in a currency-only portfolio to be dollar long and short the cross currencies. If that is what your model predicts and if you have a high confidence in the predictions and standard error being low then why do you have issues being dollar long and short the other currencies? You can implement boundary conditions, such as a ...


2

A partial answer… For Black-Litterman, an equilibrium no arbitrage condition such as interest rate parity suggests investors would be indifferent between investing in either the foreign or domestic currency. Thus, you could use a constant zero return for all currencies in your opportunity set as the equilibrium model. What this ultimately would do is act ...


2

From a practical standpoint, the conversion rate can be kept constant during the day. It won't be precise, but it'll be fast. Stat arb backtesters have plenty of precedent where the entry price is the day's close plus a slippage factor. So if your goal is adversarial research (where there question is "would this strategy work?"), then you could add a ...


2

There are two factors here, which might or might not be conflicting. 1) You want to mimic what will happen in production. If your production system sweeps currencies once a day, then backtest that way. If your clearing broker only calculates margin at the end of the day, then do the same in backtests. If you will only resize your portfolio once a month, ...


2

The bank in china has to have an account at an intermediary bank, and order a transfer from that account to the account of the US bank. Therefore the chinese bank needs to have the dollars.


2

Position here is the residual amount of one or other currency at the end: You gave us: Time | Amount | Rate | t1 100 1.2636 t2 -1000 1.2599 t3 200 1.1612 Assuming the Amount is amount paid in USD, and the rate is EUR/USD: Time | Amount | Rate | EUR balance | USD balance t0 0 0 t1 ...


2

Perhaps this paper by Hyun Woo Byun and coauthors is what you're looking for: Using a Principal Component Analysis to develop Multi-Currency Trading algorithms in the FX market They apply principal component analysis to a currency basket of 9 pairs with a 2 month rolling window. In a second step, various techniques (logistic regression, decision trees, ...


2

I think you're better off identifying the strategy they are using and try to find an index that matches. However the Dollar Index shows dollar performance with respect to a basket of 6 currencies - perhaps of some use USD is your base currency.


2

If log returns have a symmetric distribution, prices will have a positively skewed distribution, since exponentiating induces positive skew.


2

What you're trying to do is express all your positions in terms of a risk currency. Then you can track your PnL in only one currency. You need to express all this in an Excel spread sheet and include some rates, a bit like the screenshot here.


2

I just checked Google Finance and the EUR/USD = 1.1190.... for arguments sake lets say it goes up by 0.10 to 1.2190 the percentage change = 1.2190/1.1190-1 = +8.94% in terms of USD/EUR the beginning quote would be 1/1.1190 = 0.8937 but would be 1/1.2190 = 0.8203 after the EUR/USD went up by 0.10. Therefore the change in terms of USD/EUR = 0.8203/0.8937-1 = -...


2

This is a resource you may want to look at. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGHC.pdf Additionally, this books seems good for this particular topic: Risk Without Reward: The Case for Strategic FX Hedging. Also, take a look at Advanced Bond Portfolio Management: Best Practices in Modeling and Strategies edited by Frank J. Fabozzi, Lionel Martellini, ...



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