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Position here is the residual amount of one or other currency at the end: You gave us: Time | Amount | Rate | t1 100 1.2636 t2 -1000 1.2599 t3 200 1.1612 Assuming the Amount is amount paid in USD, and the rate is EUR/USD: Time | Amount | Rate | EUR balance | USD balance t0 0 0 t1 ...


Perhaps this paper by Hyun Woo Byun and coauthors is what you're looking for: Using a Principal Component Analysis to develop Multi-Currency Trading algorithms in the FX market They apply principal component analysis to a currency basket of 9 pairs with a 2 month rolling window. In a second step, various techniques (logistic regression, decision trees, ...

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