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We consider the case where the Novikov condition is satisfied, that is, \begin{align*} E\left[\exp\left(\frac{1}{2}\int_0^T \theta^2_s ds \right)\right] < \infty. \end{align*} Then $\{L_t \mid t \ge 0\}$ is a $(\mathscr{F}_t, \mathbb{P})$-martingale. On $\mathscr{F}_T$, we define the probability measure $Q$ by \begin{align*} \frac{dQ}{dP}\big|_{\mathscr{F}...


Try modelling samples every 20,000 ticks, instead of 2 hours (or any such number like that). Markets are often less fat tailed in terms of the trade- or volume-clock. See and


By Bayes' rule for conditional expectation (or here), $$E_{\mathbb Q}[X_t | \mathscr F_u] E[L_T| \mathscr F_u] = E[X_tL_T| \mathscr F_u]$$ $$ \to E_{\mathbb Q}[X_t | \mathscr F_u] L_u = E[X_tL_T| \mathscr F_u]$$ $$\to E_{\mathbb Q}[X_t | \mathscr F_u] = E[\frac{X_tL_t}{L_u}| \mathscr F_u]$$ $$= \frac{1}{L_u} E[ \frac{X_tL_t}{1} | \mathscr F_u]$$ $$= \...


Based on the form of your equation, we can consider the SDE \begin{align*} dX_t = \sigma dW_t, \end{align*} where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion. Since, for $0 \leq t \leq T$, \begin{align*} X_T = X_t + \sigma (W_T-W_t), \end{align*} based on Feynman–Kac formula, the solution is given by \begin{align*} F(t, x) &= E\left(X_T^2 \mid X_t = x\right)\\ &...

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