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5

Your question is not clear. What you might want to say is what distribution should the futures price follow, under the risk-neutral or physical probability measure. In this sense, it will depend on your intention. For potential future exposure, you may want to use the physical measure for the price evolution, while the distribution will depend on your model ...


3

My main reference will be "Dan Xu, Christian Beck - Transition from lognormal to chi-square superstatistics for financial time series" Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics (more specifically, superstatistics) gives some ideas of explaining the relation between time frame and its distribution: "...to regard the time series as a superposition of local ...


3

Surely, there is; search for aggregational gaussianity in Google Scholar or ScienceDirect. In fact, 5 minutes returns are leptokurtic and fat-tailed; then as you increase timeframe, returns become more and more normal. Yearly data is almost normal, if you have enough points.



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