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Historical returns are not to be used 'untreated' for the calculation of option prices. The expectation that you will be using in Monte Carlo will take the form $$C(K,T) = E^Q\{D(T)\ \max[0, S_T-K, 0]\}$$ where $T$ is the maturity, $K$ is the strike price, $S$ is the stock price and $D$ is the discount factor. But the expectation is taken under the 'risk ...

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I think modelling hedge fund returns is a very interesting yet demanding task. Your model will have to strike a balance between the tangibility of the model on the one hand and the possibility of parameter estimation on the other. Plus I think you will encounter hedge funds that resist all modelling attempts because there strategies are just too elusive. ...

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You can express the Normal distribution by Sklar's Theorem in terms of Gaussian Marginals and Gaussian Copula as follows: $$F(x_1,...,x_n)=C(F(x_1),...,F(x_n))=C^{Gau}(N(x_1),...,N(x_n))$$ So the distribution equals the copula function with the respective inverse marginals as arguments. You can aswell combine any types of Copula and (continuous) different ...

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The consensus nowadays is that stable distributions are not a well fit, although they do possess heavy tails. In particular Cauchy has too fat tails. The reasons for this are disparate, however the first that comes to mind is that empirically longer horizons show a decrease in tail thickness, approaching normality for 1-year returns (although this has been ...

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Its Chi-Square distribution ($k=$ number of portfolio assets): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_distribution#Definition

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0/ Let's me use more common notations to avoid misunderstanding. We will consider $B_t^x$ and $B_t^y$ - two correlated Brownian motions, e.g. $<dB_t^x,dB_t^y>=\rho dt$. Just to recall, Ito's process: $$X_t = X_0 + \int_0^t \mu(s,\omega) ds + \int_0^t \sigma(s,\omega) dB_s^x\\ dX_t=\mu(t,\omega) dt + \sigma(t,\omega) dB_t^x$$ 1/ Single BMs: ...

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What about this sketch of an answer: Let's put $T=1$ in your formula to simplify the notation. Then $Y_b(t)$ is a Brownian bridge where $Y_b(0)=0$ and $Y_b(1)=b$. This can be written as $Y_b(t) = b\ t + Y_0(t)$, that is to say the standard Brownian bridge (from zero to zero) with an added drift $b\ t$. The standard Brownian bridge can be written in terms ...

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If you mean by fat tails just fatter tails than the gaussian distribtuion, i.e. a distribution with finite variance, for instance the Student's t-distribution has fatter tails than the normal distribution. If you mean distributions with infinite variance, you have to have a look at Lévy distribution. In a first attempt you could just substitute the standard ...

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I think there are 2 approaches being a bit mixed up here. You can analyze the option market by looking at implied volatilities and apply Black-Scholes (BS), thus assuming that log-returns follow a Gaussian distribution. Implied volatilies are the parameters that bring together BS and market prices. Then you will observe a pattern of implied volatilies for ...

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In general, there cannot be a closed-form solution of a random coefficients VG model. The reason is the drift-restriction that needs to be imposed to ensure that the discounted price process is a martingale under the risk-neutral measure. Using the bank account as numeraire, the restriction is $$\frac{1}{\beta} > \theta + \frac{\sigma^2}{2}$$ where ...

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