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Perhaps other memeber of qSE are going to correct me, but I think the following rule of thumb is useful. Whenever you have a doubt, try to forget that a pricing measure is a probability measure. This is just a pricing tool: originally for any option/derivative/contingent claim we'd like to know its price, so we introduce a map $\pi:X\to \Bbb R$ such that ...


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Your question is not clear. What you might want to say is what distribution should the futures price follow, under the risk-neutral or physical probability measure. In this sense, it will depend on your intention. For potential future exposure, you may want to use the physical measure for the price evolution, while the distribution will depend on your model ...



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