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Volatility changes over time. Even if daily returns are normal, assuming the conditional volatility each day is known, the unconditional distribution of daily returns will have excess kurtosis. For example, if daily returns have a standard deviation of 1%, 90% of the time, and a standard deviation of 3%, 10% of the time, the presence of the high-volatility ...


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There are actually several different ways you could formulate this problem in game theoretic terms. Hoping this is not too basic an answer for you : from what you write, the two canonical approaches would be to frame things in terms of Cournot oligopolies (firms simultaneously set quantities and prices result from the market clearing condition supply=demand) ...


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Here is a good explanation by the SF Fed. In a nutshell, there is the current account (trade deficit/ surplus) financial account (asset bought/ sold overseas) and the capital account (intangible assets, usually negligible). The sum of the three for each country is zero by definition. Therefore the trade deficit must be accompanied by a financial account ...


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I think that you have to distinguish between a 'fiat' (modern) monetary system and a 'gold standard' one. But sustainability will always be ensured endogenously, one way or another. Fiat money is created whenever a loan is made, and the \$50 you describe will be created endogenously in the economy. Advocates would call it a virtous rather than a vicious ...


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The interest does not necessarily come from another loan. The ECB is paying interest to banks which is essentially to create ("print") new money. It is a fact, that the money supply is constantly growing over time, which in a simple model would just equal the interest paid out on loans. That does not necessarily have something to do with the economy being ...


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A naive reason has been explained by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book titled Black Swan. In a deeper look, one should be aware that no historical data analysis can truly estimate the real tail risk of financial markets. By the same token, standard deviation, max drawdown, expected shortfall, VaR, Conditional Var... No single or combination of such ...


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Extreme events in financial markets, like the crash of 1987, occur more frequently in the real world than a normal distribution would predict. The economic facts that drive those extreme events are varying. Such extreme declines have been observed over many different time periods (Tulip-mania for instance), which suggests that it is more likely inherent to ...


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A good introductory book with a lot of data and statistics provided is: "Macroeconomics: Understanding the Global Economy" by David Miles and Andrew Scott. You can find the link to the book here: Macroeconomics - Miles/Scott It uses a lot of real world examples to relate economic concepts with real data and explain observed economic phenomena. If you are ...


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What is meant is the so called Laffer effect or Laffer curve. The rationale is that when you cut taxes that this will stimulate business and thereby over-compensate the loss in taxes the government originally had.



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