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The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that you cannot beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis by looking at past prices. You can certainly earn higher returns than the market if you take on more risk (by leveraging, for example). Modern Portfolio Theory allows you to construct portfolios that are efficient. According to this theory, you still cannot ...


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EMH says that one can not earn excess return using some information. This is known as joint-hypothesis problem: to test for market efficiency one have to determine first what is "normal" market return, i.e. what type of information is normally priced by the market. Usually to test for EMH they use CAPM or 3-factor Fama-French model (which is a kind of ...


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MPT uses expected values for its parameters. How these expected (future) parameters are estimated, is another question. Usually one takes historic averages when its the only information available, but one could for example also use analysts forecasts or other advanced estimation methods.


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The weak EMH states that it is impossible to earn an excess return given publicly known information such as past prices. Clearly, different securities have different expected returns. For example: the bond and the stock of one company or a security that generates twice the return of another one. This difference in expected return is explained by a ...


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The first hypothesis is indeed very restrictive and in any case empirically false. A martingale implies that the expected next future price is equal to the current price. This is only either true when examining a sufficiently short time horizon or alternatively when considering the "discounted price process," which discounts the price by the risk-free rate ...



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