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Those are not predictive models. Fama-MacBeth just checks whether the model is valid unconditionally. Chapter 12 from Cochrane book is a good reference.


The cumulative return tells you how much 1€ grew over the investment horizon, whereas the compound return is typically annualized. Consider you invest 100€ for 2 years. At the end of year two, your investment grew to 110€. the cumulative return is then (110-100)/100=10%. What is the compound return? Obviously, it must be lower than the 10% as we have a ...

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