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Rather than "data mining", I'd try to have a more structured approach to the selection of variables / factors: the key drivers in ag prices are, as always in economics, supply and demand. Supply is, as you say, determined by planted acreage and yields, which in turn depend on weather and other factors (for example fertilization - can't run heavy on Nitrogen ...


I think this is a good idea; instead of if I'd ask: to what degree though. Futures prices reflect a lot of factors, so naturally you will only see some correlation which will change over time and even over different expiries (e.g. due to different liquidity in the back months). My advice therefore: Make sure you understand how the markets work because you ...

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