# Tag Info

7

Treasury futures are actually really complicated... There are complete books dedicated to this topic (e.g., The Treasury Bond Basis) and really good sell-side research papers ("Understanding Treasury Bond Futures" by Salomon Brothers) that I highly recommend. You're actually very much on the right track, but I'll try to paint a somewhat complete picture. ...

7

It is helpful to think of the yield $r_b$ of a risky bond (say a corporate) in your country as the yield of the risk-free government bond $r_f$ plus a "spread" $r_s$ ($r_b = r_f + r_s$). This extra spread is the extra yield that the market needs to be paid to purchase the corporate bond instead of buying an equivalent amount of risk-less bonds. In other ...

6

There are many reasons why a yield curve can be inverted. A default-free yield curve reflects a combination of - market expectation of future short-term interest rates; bond risk premium: usually positive, longer duration bonds are more volatile and riskier, so investors demand a compensation in the form of higher yields; convexity. Let's consider a case ...

6

Federal Home Loan Banks also hold reserves, but are not eligible to earn IOER, so they lend the cash into the fed funds market at a rate below IOER. U.S. branches of foreign banks, who are eligible to earn IOER, borrow from the FHLBs and deposit the proceeds in their accounts at the Fed, earning the spread. U.S. banks don't participate in this arbitrage ...

5

The CME' Fed Fund Futures are what you are looking for. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/stir/30-day-federal-fund.html On settlement day they settle at the average overnight rate set by the Fed during the contract month.

4

US Treasuries start trading BEFORE they're actually issued, in the so-called "When-Issued" market. This market allows investors to purchase the new issues for "forward settlement." Because these bonds haven't been issued, they have no coupon rates and are traded on a yield basis. On a daily basis, market forces drive the yields, until the auction date. On ...

4

Inverted curves (typically) appear when the economy is overheating. There is full employment but investment demand is still there and it is creating inflationary pressures. The central bank increases the short rate (which is their classical policy instrument) to take money off the table and cool down investment demand. However, the market knows that this is ...

3

One of the best pieces ever written on this topic is Salomon's "Principles of Principal Components," which is readily available on the Internet. I won't go into the details, since this paper is ridiculously comprehensive, but the fundamental idea is straightforward -- if you run a PCA based on yields, the first three components capture most of the variances, ...

3

SEC tends to keep CUSIPS handy: http://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13flists.htm

3

Jojo, once again the paper is about Nelson-Siegel and not Nelson-Siegel svensson (the former allows for one hump whereas the latter for two humps). Jojo, in practice people often start by fixing $\lambda$ then estimate the model by OLS and check the squared errors of the model. Then change $\lambda$ and repeat the procedure. This is highly efficient, and ...

3

No, I don't think the raw solution you sketch is going to work. First and foremost, by extracting the cash flows from the bond you're discarding the dynamics of their rate under the Hull/White model you're using. You should both forecast and discount them on the tree; the way to do it correctly is implemented, e.g., in the DiscretizedSwap class (and ...

3

As the manager of a mutual fund (not a hedge fund) you can only short treasury futures. So you take the one that is clostest in duration, look for an optimal hedge ratio and that's it. In my experience you have to leave liquidity risk open.

3

DV01 is the dollar variation in a bond's value per unit change in the yield. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_duration IR DV01 is the dollar value change for a 1bp upward parallel shift in interest rates. http://dataforthoughts.blogspot.it/2009/09/economics-of-negative-bond-cds-basis.html

3

The change of the price $P(y)$ if the yield changes from $y$ to $y+\Delta y$ is $$\frac{P(y+\Delta y) - P(y)}{P(y)} = - D \Delta y + \frac12 C \Delta y^2,$$ where $D$ is the duration and $C$ is convexity. For small $\Delta y$ the square is much smaller. Thus the duration component dominates.

2

No, 9th character is computed using deterministic algorithm described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUSIP#Check_digit_pseudocode.

2

You can resort to a model for the "hazard rate", $\lambda$, where the hazard rate is "the instantaneous conditional default probability". Hull suggests modelling this in exactly the same way you would model the short rate of interest in the Hull-White short rate setup. Recall, for short rates you assume an Affine structure for bond prices ...

2

If I understand correctly the question, you wish to completely hedge the interest rate risk (defined as a parallel shift in the yield curve). If that is the case, you should use modified duration, which is the price sensitivity, rather than the MacAulay duration. They are usually close in value, but not quite the same. Fortunately, you can easily transform ...

2

QSTK is nice and open source , it is the QuantSciTookKit and it has some good functionality if you are interested in python programming. Here is the link: http://wiki.quantsoftware.org/index.php?title=QuantSoftware_ToolKit

2

In Japan we get ISIN data with http://www.isin.org/isin-database they have free search tool.

2

For a swap, we have a sequence of re-setting and payment dates. The # of forward rates corresponding to the # of payment dates. For example, let us assume that we have $n$ payment dates $t_1, \ldots, t_n$, where $0< t_1 < \cdots < t_n$. Then there are $n$ forward rates. During the simulation, for time steps prior to $t_1$, there exist $n$ ...

2

If the bond's DV01 is 0.05, then the DV01 of 1000 of this bond will be $0.05\times 1000 = 50$. By contrast, if the modified or effective duration of the bond is 0.05, then the modified duration of 1000 of this bond is still 0.05.

2

while it is true that $$\lim_{T\to\infty} Z(t, T) = \lim_{T\to\infty} e^{-r(T-t)} = 0$$ this is when $r$ is independent of time to maturity, a flat and constant yield curve. In practice, we use yield curves which vary depending on what day they are estimated and what maturity the ZCB is. If in fact $r(t, T)$ depends on today and the maturity then the ...

2

This is something that banks don't do very well (in my opinion), but we can look to the insurance industry for help. Insurance liabilities often span decades, and the regulation has come up with something called the Ultimate Forward Rate (or UFR). It's currently a hotly debated topic with the advent of Solvency II (insurance regulation) coming into effect ...

2

The Fed publishes yield curve data (par, zero & fwd) built with the Svensson model and using coupon bonds: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/researchdata/feds200628_1.html. The data is 2 day delayed, however.

2

Under the Vasicek's model, the price of a zero-coupon bond is given by \begin{align*} P(t, T) = A(t, T)\exp\big(-B(t, T) r_t\big), \end{align*} where $A$ and $B$ are deterministic functions. In particular, $B$ is a positive increasing function (see any books on interest rate models). Then \begin{align*} \ln P(t, T) = \ln A(t, T) - B(t, T) r_t. \end{align*} ...

2

EONIA swaps stopped trading some time in 2014. Since it stopped trading, it does not make sense to remember when it stopped trading :).

2

If you just need the description you can use =BDP(TICKER,"CIE DES") directly in Excel.

2

Zero coupon rates are outputs, not inputs. As mentioned in the other post, given the parameters (say the initial guesses), you can easily compute the theoretical prices of each bond, which can then be converted into their theoretical yields (standard price to yield conversion). You should minimize the residuals between these theoretical yields and the market ...

2

The best solution is to matrix-price these bonds first. For each bond, either find a comparable bond or use your own judgment to determine the appropriate spread to a benchmark curve (e.g., OAS to LIBOR), then use the daily LIBOR curve and the corresponding OAS to obtain the daily prices.

2

The price-yield relationship is negatively correlated; when prices go down, the implied yield goes up. The minus sign allows the modified duration to be positive for a normal bond.

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