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2

Just a quick fix. Looking at the wikipedia entry of EGARCH: $g(\zeta_t)$ (the unit-scale random variable) seems correct - as you say.


1

Yes, it exists and it is called ccgarch package. You can install that by simply running in R install.packages("ccgarch") and learn more about that on the CRAN relative paper. Moreover, I suggest you to read this lecture hold by the author during an R conference. Hope this help.


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Garch models are not good to predict "many" periods ahead, but for "very short" times. If you want to predict 2 months from here, maybe you should be working with monthly data. I did a similar exercise with some indexes (symb=c("^BVSP","^MERV","^DJA","^N225")) using daily returns from="1991/01/01", look the incredible predictions.


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My 2 Zimbabwe cents: A few years ago developing new ARCH like models became almost a fad and large numbers of them were published without a clear justification in my humble opinion. However there is an important distinction I do think. Some markets are symmetric, while others (such as Stock Indexes) show a Leverage Effect where the volatility rises when ...



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