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You're playing against people who would take the opportunities you're going for in microseconds or milliseconds. What kind of latency are you getting with TradeStation? You need to do two things: measure this latency. get tick by tick data and do a real backtest. Probably your opportunities are gone in 10 milliseconds so you need to do this.


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I know it's not what you want to hear, but the smaller the time-frame the more limit orders should be focused on (which can change the design of a strategy entirely). Due to the nature of the futures markets, having a gap in liquidity can obviously cause discrepancies with market orders, but can guarantee some nature of being filled using limits.


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Perhaps not the most encouraging answer, but: I would think that it is contingent upon the specific implementation, magnitude, regularity, and transiency of arbitrage available as well as the volatility estimate time-scale. In a very simple case, the existence of arbitrage opportunities would likely result in larger fraction of informed traders (relative to ...


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If you look at it from a mathematical point of view - presence of arbitrage should not matter for volatility estimates. Absence of arbitrage can be associated with the existence of an equivalent martingale measure for the bank account numeraire. (first fundamental theorem of asset pricing) Let's assume the real world process is something like ...



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