Hot answers tagged mean-reversion
8
There are multiple approaches that you could consider. The basic idea across all of them is that you want to find a portfolio that is stationary. In the two-asset case, it is well known how to accomplish this. This paper by Marcelo Perlin describes one approach:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952782
but I am not particularly inclined to ...
7
Take a look at the sde package; specifically the dcOU and dsOU functions. You may also find some examples on the R-SIG-Finance mailing list, which would be in the results of a search on www.rseek.org.
7
There is no standard method and many techniques can work well, including simple time series z-scoring. I'm many cases, I would recommend using the simpler approaches unless the added complexity can be justified.
However, the challenge with all techniques is the proper calibration, which is very much context sensitive. The parameter selection needs to be ...
6
There are other strategy types not covered by mean-reversion/trend following:
arbitrage - keep correlated assets close in price (SPX index versus the 500 stocks contained in it, or Gold trading in London versus Gold trading in New York)
market making - buy on ask, sell on bid, gain the spread
liquidity rebate - some venus pay you for putting limit orders ...
5
There is no official taxonomy of quant trading models. After all, "valuations" are inherently subjective, no matter how much math we put behind them. But there are some industry-standard terms that might be helpful.
Inside the Black Box has the following break-down:
Price
Trend
Reversal
Fundamental
Yield
Growth
Quality
It's also possible to ...
4
The code of Euler Maruyama simulation method is pretty simple (nu is long run mean, lambda is mean reversion speed):
ornstein_uhlenbeck <- function(T,n,nu,lambda,sigma,x0){
dw <- rnorm(n, 0, sqrt(T/n))
dt <- T/n
x <- c(x0)
for (i in 2:(n+1)) {
x[i] <- x[i-1] + lambda*(nu-x[i-1])*dt + sigma*dw[i-1]
}
return(x);
}
4
As pointed out by Brian, the question is vague because generally mean reversion requires a well defined mean. Nevertheless, there are processes which are not mean stationary (mean is not homogenous across observations) for which a concept of mean exists. Let $\mu_t = E(x_t)$. In general you can have $\mu_t \neq \mu_s$ (i.e. violate mean stationarity) but ...
3
Pairs trading is just one type of statistical arbitrage (check out references on wikipedia page). It sounds like you are talking about trading "factors" against each other. Factors could be industries, size, fundamentals, or purely statistical.
Start with Ed Thorp's Wilmott articles on statistical arbitrage. Then read Attilio Meucci's Review. An example ...
3
You can also use the Sim.DiffProc package.
Have a look at this document:
Sim.DiffProc: A Package for Simulation of Diffusion Processes in R
See esp. chapter 2.1.2
There is even a Graphical User Interface (GUI) available for some functions:
http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Sim.DiffProcGUI/index.html
See chapter 4 in the above document for details.
3
if you just want to test for significance of the generation of returns exceeding a hurdle rate then you can just setup a standard hypothesis test where you test whether your returns you generate from back tests exceeds a certain return.
if you are more interested in testing for co-integration then you should consider the Johansen and/or Engle-Granger tests ...
2
Bermudan swaptions (often on interest rates) are typically valued with a model that incorporates mean-reversion parameters. This might be as naive as Black-Karasinski, but more often is somewhat more sophisticated, for example Generalized Vasicek.
Calibrating the model involves choosing model parameters that "best" fit the observed bermudan swaption ...
2
This sounds like a case where you will need to apply some good old-fashioned judgment to determine what the standard deviation "should be" before you have enough data to measure it. Surely this process repeats with some frequency, and perhaps given some attributes and more details you could make an educated guess as to the standard deviation (or quantiles, ...
2
If you have a fairly good model of regime separation (of course requiring a good quantitative measure of regime state classifications -- momentum and reverting) and predictive likelihood (using something like a markov state transition matrix)-- one could weight contributions corresponding to next state probabilities. Of course, you will rarely get a ...
1
Following references from the answer provided by @Richard, we see that the optimality condition for a continuous process in general (and therefore an OU process in particular) is covered in Section 2 concluding on page 6 of Thompson 2002, where he also represents the solution in terms of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations.
If you change the limits of the ...
1
you find theoretical results for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process if you search for "pairs trading". In pairs trading it is assumed that the ratio of the pair is mean reverting. Then one often models this ratio as Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.
You find something on page 11 here
Further theoretical results that might be of interest can be found here.
All these ...
1
I think a good way to think about your problem is the example of finding an optimal VWAP trading strategy. You basically have a finite point in time by which you must have performed your transaction and you trade a similar asset than the one you are considering, one with the same underlying assumptions of mean-reversion (I make such assumption in the same ...
1
Momentum and mean reversion are labels to describe the behavior of a stock relative to the time period under consideration. That means same stock can be a momentum stock at one point in time and mean reverting stock at different point in time. Similarly at same time, a stock can be both a momentum stock and mean reverting stock depending on which time frame ...
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