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9

With $15\%$ annual volatility we have $15\%/\sqrt{252}\approx0.94\%$ daily volatility. To go from $27$ to $28$ is a $1/27\approx 3.7\%$ move which is $3.7/0.94\approx 3.9$ standard deviations. For a normal distribution this is about $0.005\%$ probability which is in line with your result.


8

You may need to differentiate between the use of options and the pricing of options. How options are used has no bearing on the price of such options. Options can be used as leveraged investments or as insurance or as hedges. Any such use does not change the fair value derived for the option. By the way you are in fact compensated the risk premium but it is ...


8

It is not possible for what most people think of as options, but there are classes of options for which an ODE is used. For a nontrivial example, think of perpetual American-exercise options. Because of perpetual exercise, the option value is independent of time. In place of the Black-Scholes PDE $$ \frac{\partial f}{\partial t} = \frac12 \sigma^2 x^2 ...


6

To recover the Black-Scholes pricing equation, you should first express the standard normal cdf in terms of its characteristic function analogous to the Heston solution: $$ N(x) = \frac{1}{2} - \frac{1}{\pi} \int_0^{\infty} Re [\frac{e^{-i\phi x} f(\phi)}{i\phi}] d\phi $$ where $f(\phi)$ is the characteristic function of the standard normal distribution: $$ ...


6

Aleš Černý has very simple examples in his book. Alternatively, this paper seems to recap part of the chapter on Fourier series: Introduction to Fast Fourier Transform in Finance - Aleš Černý


5

I think this blog post is quite good at explaining option pricing via fourier transforms.


5

Q: What does the risk-neutral price represent if the option is not replicable? In an incomplete market, there is no unique martingale measure but instead a set $Q$ of equivalent martingale measures. Consequently, there is an interval of arbitrage-free prices: $ \Big( inf_{\mathbf{Q} \in Q} E_{\mathbf{Q}}[DX], sup_{\mathbf{Q} \in Q} E_{\mathbf{Q}}[DX] ...


4

The first Google result seems clear enough: A seagull option is structured through the purchase of a call spread and the sale of a put option (or vice versa)....This structure is appropriate when volatility is high but expected to fall, and the price is expected to trade with a lack of certainty on direction. So, for example, you might buy the 105% ...


4

A stochastic volatility model for a single risky asset can't be complete because you have two sources of randomness. But you can easily make it complete by adding a derivative whose value depends on the volatility. For example, if you add a variance swap in the Heston model then it becomes complete. This allows you to calibrate the model. But your ...


4

Behavioral Finance is a wide topic, which I believe is still today underestimated by many financial professionals. How can it be used by quants? Well, in portfolio optimization it can be used "as an overlay" in the form of constraints where the optimal portfolio can not be too different from the current portfolio, because clients have behavioral biases ...


4

The dynamics of the underlying stock process are obviously crucial to the derivative's price. Thus if you don't necessarily assume $S_t$ to be log normally distributed (B&S-Model) you won't get the same price even if the market is arbitrage free. Example: Assume $S_t=C$ $ \forall t \in \mathbb{R}^+$ and $r=0$. Thus $S_t$ is constant and the interest ...


3

Maybe this could also be a comment but I think an it is not possible to answer this question with a 'yes and here is how you do it'. It has been tried, e.g. by me for a university research project. In this research we focused primarily on aggregation of returns and the main problem was the tractability of the resulting distributions and expressions, also ...


3

The following is a standard exercise that will help you answer your own question. Consider a one-period binomial lattice for a stock with a constant risk-free rate. Determine the initial cost of a portfolio that perfectly hedges a contingent claim with payoff xu in the upstate and xd in the downstate (you can do this so long as the up and down price are ...


3

As you correctly pointed out volume has no place in the pricing models of most any option(Unless of course you create an option whose underlying or is volume in some way or if volume is used as some sort of barrier). The reason is simple: The contingent payoff and hence the probability of ending up in the money is not a function of volume. Why the market ...


3

In binomial tree models, there is no such a thing as a path. The binomial tree represents information about the distribution of the zero-curve at a given time and preserve enough information between different times to let you compute conditional expectations. Generally, you can not price path-dependant instruments in a model based on trees—because there is ...


3

First find minimum value of j that assures the option is in the money. This would be function of u,d,n,S,K,p,q Any particular value of j has a probability associated with it. You gave formula above. Then you need sum probabilities from j=min j needed to n. See wikipedia binomial distribution to find formula for sum. Sum is based on cdf of binomial ...


3

The theoretical idea of Delta hedging is placed in a setting of infinitesimally small time steps. In such small time steps and if no jumps occur (eg. in the diffusion case) the underlying can not move that much and Delta makes sense (at least theoretically). In continuous time things work out. As in practice (or in simulations) the Delta hedge can only be ...


3

Two parts Real world vs risk neutral: Can we even estimate risk neutral volatility using historical data? There is a difference in distribution of the underlying stock price under the real world and risk neutral measures. Luckily, changing to the risk neutral measure does not affect volatility, only the drift. Thus, a real world measure of volatility will ...


3

No, you cannot decompose a barrier option as a linear combination of European options. You can find the derivation of the formula in Musiela & Rutkowsi pg.235, for example. But I can tell you that your formula is wrong because if $S_t<S_0e^b$ the price should be zero but in your equation this does not happen. Also note that your equation is nothing ...


3

Assuming the filtration is generated by Brownian Motion, you know that the price of a contingent claim is just the expectation under the risk neutral measure $Q$. Hence for the first one $$E_Q[\int_0^TS_udu]$$ where $S$ has the dynamic: $S_t=S_0e^{\sigma W^Q_t-(\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2-r)t}$, where $W^Q_t=W_t+\frac{\mu-r}{\sigma}$ is the Girsanov chagned ...


3

So we have the identity $$g(S,\sigma, t, C,C_t,C_S,...)=g(S, t,\sigma, V,V_t,V_S,...)$$ where $S$, $\sigma$, and $t$ are independent variables and $V=V(S,\sigma,t)$, $C=C(S,\sigma,t)$ are some unknown functions. But we can also treat the above identity formally and assume that the functions $C,C_t,C_S,...,V,V_t,V_S,... $ are themselves independent ...


3

I think you need to go even one step further than vonjd went in his reply. If liquid trading of the underlying is not possible, not only the arbitrage argument underlying risk neutral pricing breaks down. In that case there is simply no reason why the prices of those two assets (the option and its underlying) should be related in any way at all. So in my ...


3

Assume the stock pays no dividends before 100 dollars is hit. Interest rates can be arbitrary. Buy 1/100 of a share for 75 cents. Hold until $100 is hit then sell. The payoff of 1 dollar is replicated for an upfront cost of 75 cents. The arbitrage-free value of the option is 75 cents.


3

In effect, you are wondering whether to price this option on risk-free probability distributions (B-S drift $r_f$), or real-world ones (B-S drift $\mu$, however calibrated) One cannot short the mutual fund, so the argument for using risk-free is weakened. But, there are various economic equilibrium arguments why using it may still be OK. If you use the ...


3

Implied volatility cannot be calculated analytically with a closed formula. Instead, you have to approximate it numerically. There are multiple methods to compute IV on an option: Bi-section method Newton-Raphson method Secant method A quick google search came up with the following code for C++ using bi-section and newton methods: Implied ...


3

Mersenne Twister is currently the most used PRNG in the quant world. It was even incorporated in C++11 so it can be considered standard nowadays. Any PRNG with reasonable statistical quality shall perform well (equivalently) for pricing, so that differences relate more to convenience (speed, parallelizability etc..). If the statistical quality is poor then ...


3

Asian options: strike is average of underlying over tenor. Underlying is stochastic. Options with kock-ins/knock-outs: Underlying is stochastic and may cross the kock threshold as it evolves. Option value depends on this cross or lack thereof (boolean). Options on Options, too. Motivations for Asian options you can google. Kock-ins and knock-outs ...


3

Benoit Mandelbrot applied fractals and self-similarity to financial markets and the hurst exponent has its roots in chaos theory. Look at this article from Wilmott magazine. Just a personal note: I have not worked that much with this kind of theory so far but I also have not seen any of my peers being exceptionally sucessfull with these methods.


2

I have a mathematical proof with no graphs or pictures. Suppose $r=0$, what we want is to see what happens if volatility changes in $E^Q[1_{S_T>K}]$. The latter quantity is $Q(S_T>K)=Q(\log S_T > \log K)$. Under Q, we know that $S_T=S_0 \exp\left(-\frac12 \sigma^2T + \sigma W_T\right)$, so $\log S_T$ is distributed as $ N(\log S_0 ...


2

There is a whole family of GARCH option pricing models; ones with complex distributions, leverage effects, skewness parameters etc. For an example see Christoffersen and Jacobs (2004). Some example GARCH models: NGARCH EGARCH TGARCH Some distributions that can be used: Hyperbolic Normal Inverse Gaussian Variance Gamma and the generalized form ...



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