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6

If you measure risk by the standard deviation of the portfolio return $$ \sigma = \sqrt{w^T \Sigma w}, $$ then it is usual to define risk contributions for each asset by $$ \sigma_i = w_i (\Sigma w)_i/\sigma, $$ then diversified could mean that these $\sigma_i$ are evenly spread over the assets in the portfolio. You find this approach and more in this paper ...


6

Since $dW_A$ and $dW_B$ are already correlated as per the way you construct it, your portfolio being the sum of the two is already correlated. If you want it very explicitity written out, then you could rewrite $dW_B = \rho dW_A + \sqrt{1-\rho^2}dW_Z$ where $dW_Z$ is independent of $dW_A$. More generally (higher dimensions) you can use Cholesky. Now with ...


5

most models in financial maths are linear so prices and Greeks just add. This is in particular true of Black--Scholes so Yes. However, once one starts taking into account value adjustments non-linearities appear and it is a lot more complicated.


4

If you could hedge continuously with zero transaction costs, the gamma would be irrelevant: you would perfectly replicate with delta hedging and be done. In practice, hedging is discrete and there is a certain amount of slippage giving a random outcome with mean zero. The larger the gamma, the bigger the variance of slippage. Trading more frequently ...


4

Actuarial science traditionally focuses on estimation of joint probabilities using real data where math finance is on valuation of contracts under an arbitrary distribution. It means the first one deals with methods of estimation of future distributions (the number of accidents of a given kind, the probability of someone with a given profile to have a ...


4

Duration is not linear. It is the weighted average of the duration of the underlyings with the weightings being their values. To get a linear system multiply the durations by the associated pvs and match that quantity instead.


4

After having done a lot of research on the topic I found the following excellent research piece on ETF.com: Wealthfront modifies historic asset-class returns with current market implied expected returns (Black-Litterman) as well as with the in-house views of Chief Investment Officer Burton Malkiel’s team. In addition, Wealthfront sets minimum and ...


3

First and foremost you are using bad data. min(data) gets me -3.67 (it's random remember) which would be -367% as in the position went bankrupt and took out two other ones (could be possible in a levered porftolio). However for the sake of an reproducible answer lets use the edhec data set, very little changes to your original code need to be done. ...


3

Mean-variance (MV) is a framework rather than a prescription. This framework allows one to make, discuss, and defend his investment decision. In practice, there are many ways to make adjustments to this framework, if you believe they will improve performance. E.g. you can adjust the framework by stating "I will MV-optimize weights subject to none of the ...


3

I use the 'implied correlation' defined as $$ \rho = \frac{V^2_P-\sum V^2_j}{(\sum V_j)^2-\sum V^2_j} $$ for $V_p$ the VaR (or volatility) of the portfolio, and $V_j$ the VaRs (or volatilities) of the individual components. Essentially it shows what would be the common correlation that I would need to use in order to aggregate the stand-alone risks to the ...


3

If you're annualising your data with T it should always be the same, not changing with the length of your data. To demonstrate, annualising monthly returns, the Sharpe ratios turn out fairly similar:- Note The reason for multiplying by root 12 is that the mean return is annualised by multiplying by 12 and volatility is annualised by m = 12. 12 on the ...


2

You do note require a sum up constraint that gives you that the weights sum up to 1? Then the problem is equivalent to a maximization without constraints: $$Z(\omega)=w'\mu - \frac{\gamma}{2}w'Vw$$ then it holds that $$\frac{dZ}{d\omega}=\mu-\gamma V\omega\overset{!}{=}0\\ \Leftrightarrow \frac{1}{\gamma}\mu=V\omega^*\\ \Leftrightarrow\omega^* = ...


2

I think you might be looking for the portfolio return variance: $$\sigma_p^2 = \sum_i \sum_j w_i w_j \sigma_i \sigma_j \rho_{ij},$$ where $\rho_{ij}$ is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between the returns on assets $i$ and $j$ and $\rho_{ij} = 1$ for $i=j$. In your case you could either weigh the assets equally or according to the real ...


2

Assume the weights of the two assets are $w$,$1-w$ respectively;the expected returns and standard deviations are denoted by $\mu$,$\sigma$ with subscripts 1,2,p(for portfolio),i.e,we have $\mu_1$,$\mu_2$,$\mu_p$,$\sigma_1$,$\sigma_2$,$\sigma_p$.The correlation coefficent is $\rho$ Then $$\sigma_p^2=w^2\sigma_1^2+(1-w)^2\sigma_2^2+2w(1-w)\sigma_1\sigma_2\rho ...


2

The clearest and most intuitive article I have seen so far is Kritzman et al., Regime Shifts: Implications for Dynamic Strategies in FAJ (May / June 2012) It not only shows how you can use HMM for financial modelling but it also goes through the actual estimation algorithm (Baum-Welch) step-by-step and even gives full Matlab-code. From the abstract: ...


2

since you've assumed that all returns are independent, the covariance matrix, $C,$ is diagonal. In the comments, you are assuming that the investor is a mean-variance investor. It's a general result that every portfolio that maximizes return for a given variance is a tangent portfolio for some risk-free rate, $R.$ Let $e=(1,1,...,1).$ and let $\mu$ be the ...


2

Your question accurately addresses of the practical problems of applying Modern Portfolio Theory (i.e. mean-variance optimization) in practice. Generally the correlations are considered much more difficult to accurately estimate in this context. I am not sure I understand the question. Isn't $E(r)$ is an unbiased estimator of $r$? You may want to look ...


2

This paper, Equity Portfolio Diversification by W. Goetzmann and A. Kumar, uses the following diversification measures to measure the diversification of retail investors: Normalized portfolio variance: $$ NV = \frac{\sigma_p ^2}{\bar{\sigma} ^2} $$ Sum of Squared Portfolio Weights (SSPW). Since the weight in the market portfolio is very small ...


2

As regards the free sources, the best place where you can find material about credit risk management is defaultrisk.com; it is a website where are collected (almost) all academic (and not) articles and working paper, references and researchers. Moreover, as regards the forums, I think you should try visiting Credit Risk Group at Linkedin; it is a very ...


2

The classical connection is the http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esscher_transform developed for actuaries in 1932 which essentially transforms the objective probability measure into the risk neutral one used in quant finance.


2

I think generally there are two approaches: "calendar rebalancing" (such as monthly as you mention) and "optimal corridor width". For the first option, the danger is the portfolio could stray considerably from your benchmark between rebalancing dates. For the second option, track tactical deviation on a continuous basis. When you are outside the corridor, ...


2

In literature you'll find many approaches to compute the variance. As mentioned already, the standard ideas are to use MLE, Shrinkage on the Covariance Matrix (Ledoit, Wolf), Shrinkage on the inverse of the Covariance Matrix (Kourtis,Dotsis) which makes sense as in fact the inverse of the Covariance Matrix determines the shape of the efficient frontier. ...


2

That's the way you apply. Usually you get the closest number of shares possible. However, if you use that strategy you are very likely to underperform the market. Check table 3 on this paper for the Out of sample performance of the Markowitz strategy. Over their sample the Sharpe Ratio is 0.07 whereas a simple naive strategy 1/N yielded 0.18.


2

Yes, it is normal for a L/S fund to have a lot of cash. When you short securities your account is credited with the proceeds from the sales. So if you short 1 million of stock you end up with 1 million cash and -1 million short stock position. Another way to look at it is: as you mentioned, the weights as a fraction of NAV have to add up to 1.0 by definition ...


2

Try to formulate the problem as a constrained optimization problem, and examine the KKT (Karush-Kuhn-Tucker) complementary slackness conditions.


2

You wrote: $$d[5] = (DJIR[5] - \mu) * Covariance$$ but you left out half of it (the inverse and the transposed vector on the right side). The correct formula is $$d[5] = (DJIR[5] - \mu)^2 / Var[DJIR]$$ The covariance "matrix" becomes the variance in a 1-dimensional case (in other words $x_i$ and $y_i$ are both equal to DJIR[i] in this case) and the "matrix ...


2

If two or more (I(1)) time series are cointegrated, then this means that you can find a linear combination of them that is mean-reverting. Thus, if you create a portfolio with weights that are proportional to this linear combination, then the portfolio returns will also be mean-reverting. There is a large literature on cointegration and asset prices and ...


2

The general formula for the global minimum variance portfolio is $w=\frac{C^{-1} 1}{1^T C^{-1} 1}$ where C is the covariance matrix and 1 is a vector of 1's. In this case the covariance matrix is diagonal with $\sigma_i^2$ in the ith diagonal element. Its inverse is also diagonal and has $\frac{1}{\sigma_i^2}$ in the ith diagonal element. Evaluating the ...


2

In 2006 Choueifaty proposed a measure of portfolio diversification, called the Diversification Ratio (DR), which he defined as the ratio of the weighted average of the volatilities of the assets in the portfolio, to the portfolios overall volatility. The DR of a long only portfolio is greater than or equal to one, and equals unity for a ...


2

You can also use the Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index (HCI) as a measure for concentration. In portfolio analysis, you can calculate it as $\frac{1}{N} \leq HCI(x) = \sum_{i=1}^N x_i^2 \leq 1$ where $x$ is a vector of $N$ portfolio asset weights. One can easily see that $HCI(x) = 1$ if 100% is invested in a single asset, and $HCI(x) = 1/N$ if the portfolio is ...



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