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I think the only valid answer is you can't. The techniques you describe would work of the signal was much stronger than the noise but it seems that with your fund returns this is not the case. You could try to get more data or look at other risk measures like max drawdown to get some idea of the risks involved.


Upon close reading, this appears to be 3 (interesting) questions, not one. I'm not sure if the mods have the tools needed to split it up, so I'm just going to write down the three questions as I see them and then deal with them one by one. Note, it is simpler for me to talk about variance instead of volatility. This has no material impact on the answer. ...

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