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If you look at tick data, you will probably get an even better analysis. However, vix correlation tends to be negative with spx but remember that this is generally more true for when spx tanks. When spx goes up, the correlation isn't as strong. Why? People panic after a drop, therefore leading to people buying options. They don't care about black scholes ...


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The VIX is designed to "represent the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money [SPX] option with exactly 30 days to expiration." (via the CBOE) The calculations are available from the CBOE in this white paper. Note that your question is wrong -- it is the implied volatility, not the vega. Moreover, you wouldn't predict a change in vega (which is a ...


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You are very close. VIX vol is indeed a vol-of-vol. However the way VIX options actually work is that they expire into the futures, which themselves have value derived from 30-day options on expiration day. That is to say, the VIX spot index today has no direct relationship to the VIX options you can trade today. A VIX option vol is the volatility of ...


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In general futures are contract which are marked to market everyday and are settled against the cash/underlying price at a future delivery date. For the SPX, I think there are only deliveries in Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec. In theory, one can calculate the implied future price using the short rates and the spot price. One thing to note is that there is a ...


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Generally speaking, volatilities at all points of the vol surface are (positively) correlated in both empirical and theoretical models. So if you feel you have a prediction strategy for the VIX, you have an associated directional prediction for other volatilities, and you can take advantage of that. Directional volatility bets are most often expressed (as ...


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I don't know if I understand your question correctly but the procedure how to calculate ATM option prices with publicly available implied volatility indices (like VXO) for the vol parameter can be found in the mentioned paper on pages 5-7: How Students Can Backtest Madoff’s Claims by Michael J. Stutzer (2009)


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Yes, all of VIX futures are based on THEIR RESPECTIVE front month options, so you have to realize that for long-dated VIX futures these are long-dated options. So for example settlement value of VIX DEC 12 futures will be based on SPX JAN 13 options, which will be front-month options at the time of VIX futures expiration.


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They'll be correlated, and generally close to one another, but rarely identical. In fact differences of 2 points in implied vol are common. The reason for the differences comes down to the portfolio construction and tracking error of the SPY ETF. While generally quite low over a long period of time, the tracking error on a 1-day or less basis can be ...



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