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4

It is very hard to answer this quiz as people might be good at different at tools. For example, if you are good at VBA, then you can achieve the same effect compared to R in most cases. The following parts are the reasons why I prefer to R based on my own situation. 'package'. This is the most obvious strength of R over Excel in terms of convenience. You ...


4

Of course estimating expected returns is the very core of portfolio management. Finding a useful covariance matrix too. To find both fills a book. So I first thought about closing the question. But it is a chance to discuss today's approaches. A nice approach that is very up-to-date where mementum investing seems very fashionable is the following: Momentum ...


3

Theoretically speaking (as it's done in financial textbooks at b-school level), variance and covariance are calculated on historical performance of asset classes, forward looking returns are CAPM calculated returns. ARIMA. Practically speaking, ARIMA is useless for predicting long term returns (or portfolio management if you wish). Why? A short answer is ...


3

Some advantages of R over Excel: R is a scripting language, which allows to record a data manipulation script once and reuse it multiple times. R, as a [scripting] programming language is much more flexible than very limited Excel's GUI. In fact, R has become a de facto statistical programming environment, which delivers most recent statistical techniques. ...


2

For the general solution in the case where $f$ is not a constant, note that, from the SDE \begin{align*} dx_t = \theta(f(t)-x_t)dt + \sigma dW_t, \end{align*} we obtain that \begin{align*} d\big(e^{\theta t} x_t \big) = \theta e^{\theta t} f(t)dt + \sigma e^{\theta t} dW_t. \end{align*} Then \begin{align*} e^{\theta t} x_t = x_0 + \int_0^t \theta e^{\theta ...


2

You can just take expectations on both sides of your SDE/corresponding integral equation and obtain an ODE on the expectation function $m_t = \Bbb E[x_t]$: $$ \dot m = \theta(f - m) $$ which you can easily solve using ansatz $m_t = c_t \mathrm e^{-\theta t}$ which brings you to $$ m_t = x_0\mathrm e^{-\theta t} + \theta\cdot\int_0^tf(s)\mathrm ...


2

I think the only valid answer is you can't. The techniques you describe would work of the signal was much stronger than the noise but it seems that with your fund returns this is not the case. You could try to get more data or look at other risk measures like max drawdown to get some idea of the risks involved.


1

The rating downgrade/upgrade effect is definitely more extreme during financial crisis, because of several effects (among all, flight-to quality, flight-to-liquidity and news effects itself), as shown by: Arezki, Rabah, Bertrand Candelon, and Amadou Nicolas Racine Sy. "Sovereign rating news and financial markets spillovers: Evidence from the European ...


1

Recently I attended a presentation by the first author of the following paper who gave us quite a creative and illuminating (kind of meta-)use of random forests in Quant Finance: All that Glitters Is Not Gold: Comparing Backtest and Out-of-Sample Performance on a Large Cohort of Trading Algorithms (March 2016) by Thomas Wiecki, Andrew Campbell, Justin Lent, ...



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