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6

Basically, prices usually have a unit root, while returns can be assumed to be stationary. This is also called order of integration, a unit root means integrated of order 1, I(1), while stationary is order 0, I(0). Time series that are stationary have a lot of convenient properties for analysis. When a time series is non-stationary, then that means the ...


4

Perhaps overly simplistic and repeating the pt above, but when doing statistics, ideally we want to compare like with like. Returns can be comparable with each other. Prices on the other hand always depend on the previous price.


3

Just a bit of illustration added to @John's answer. Look at log prices $\log(P_t)$, assume that you know $P_0$ then $$ \log(P_t) = \log(P_0) + r_1 + \cdots r_t $$ where $r_i = \log(P_i)-\log(P_{i-1})$ are the log returns. By modelling the log-returns (which as already said take values on the whole real line which is a nice property for modelling) we model ...


2

The above question was a typo due to the author -- the expression should be evaluated as \begin{equation} E(t|\mathcal{F}_{s}^{W}) = t \end{equation} due to the reasoning in the question. Sorry for the noise.


1

I use straightforward approach: Generate "returns"; Make cumulative sum of returns from Step 1; Take any Nth (N should be "big enough") point for series obtained on Step 2. That would be "closes"; Then take max and min between "closes" = highs and lows. In R: n <- 10000 # quantity of "ticks" inside 1 day m <- 200 # number of days rets <- ...


1

Number one, the central limit theorem means a lot of things that may not be normal end up looking normal when lots of little 'experiments' or impacts are added up. Number 2, when dealing with finance you need a model that seems plausible. An arithmetic Brownian motion could go negative, but stock prices can't. On the other hand, it seems quite plausible ...



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