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6

Here's my favorite example of an intraday strategy on S&P500 futures that at least used to work: Intraday Share Price Volatility and Leveraged ETF Rebalancing I pull it out whenever people start talking about market efficiency. The strategy is very simple: if S&P500 futures are up or down more than 2% on the day with two hours left until close, ...


3

We assume that $\gamma(s, t)$ is differentiable with respect to $t$. Then, \begin{align*} dx_t = \left(\int_0^t \frac{\partial\gamma(s, t)}{\partial t} dW_s \right)dt + \gamma(t, t) dW_t. \end{align*}


3

You can show that "the implied variance of an ATM short maturity option is equal to the expectation under the risk neutral measure of the integrated variance over the life of the option." As you move away from the assumptions: ie not ATM, longer maturity, risk neutral measure far from true, then the forecasting power diminishes. (Google 'stochastic ...


3

For the first question, since by definition, \begin{align*} \varepsilon_t^{if} = e^{i \int_0^{t}f\big(\frac{1}{\xi}\langle M\rangle_s\big)\frac{dM_s}{\sqrt{\xi}} + \frac{1}{2}\int_0^t f\big(\frac{1}{\xi}\langle M\rangle_s\big)\frac{d\langle M\rangle_s}{\xi}}, \end{align*} then, \begin{align*} d\varepsilon_t^{if} = i \varepsilon_t^{if} f\Big(\frac{1}{\xi}\...


3

For the last question. We assume that \begin{align*} S_t = S_0 e^{(r-q-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2)t + \sigma W_t}, \end{align*} where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion, $r$ is the interest rate, $q$ is the dividend yield, and $\sigma$ is the volatility. Then, \begin{align*} X_{u+a}-X_a &= (r-q-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2)a + \sigma(W_{u+a}-W_u)\\ &\sim (r-q-\frac{...


3

While Richard's answer is technically correct, just saying the result can be obtained using Ito's formula doesn't make the issue much clearer. So let me go into the microscopics of the issue. The Ito integral is defined in the following way. Suppose we divide the time interval $[0,t]$ into $n$ pieces with $t_i = i~dt$ where $dt=\frac{t}{n}$ then we define ...


3

Apply Ito's lemma to $f(W_t) = W_t^2$ then $$ f(W_T) = f(W_0) + \int_0^T f'(W_t) dW_t + \frac{1}{2} \int_0^T f''(W_t) dt. $$ Thus $$ W_T^2 = 2 \int_0^T W_tdW_t + \frac12 2 T = 2 \int_0^T W_tdW_t + T. $$ If we rearrange terms then we get $$ \int_0^T W_tdW_t = (W_T^2-T)/2. $$


3

Note that, for $0 \leq s < t$, \begin{align*} W_t^3 &= (W_t-W_s+W_s)^3\\ &= (W_t-W_s)^3 + 3(W_t-W_s)^2 W_s + 3 (W_t-W_s) W_s^2 + W_s^3. \end{align*} Moreover, \begin{align*} E\big( (W_t-W_s)^3 \mid \mathcal{F}_s\big) &= E\big( (W_t-W_s)^3\big)\\ &= 0,\\ E\big((W_t-W_s)^2 W_s \mid \mathcal{F}_s\big) &= W_s E\big( (W_t-W_s)^2\big)\\ &...


2

Note that $X$ is a continuous martingale. Moreover, the quadratic variation is given by \begin{align*} \langle X_t, \, X_t\rangle = \int_0^t |\sigma_u|^2 du = c^2 t. \end{align*} That is, \begin{align*} \langle X_t/c, \, X_t/c\rangle = t. \end{align*} From Levy's characterization, $X/c$ is by law a Brownian motion, which we denote by $\beta$. Then, by law, \...


2

In order to apply Ito's lemma, your function needs to be a twice-differentiable function. There is no issue with the non-differentiability of the Wiener process. $\frac{dF}{dX}$ involves differentiating F, not the Wiener process X. Using a simple analogy: instantaneous velocity ($\frac{dD}{dt}$) is the derivative of position (D) over time; what is ...


2

We write the differential form of Ito formula for simplification. Actually, the differential form for Ito formula $$ dF(W(t)) = 2W(t)dW(t) + dt $$ means the integral form for Ito formula, $$ \int{dF} = \int{2W(t)dW(t)} + \int{dt} $$ which make sense in mathemaitcs.


2

Such a complex question... Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) will not typically work to aid one finding strategies based on technicals, as the pursuit of the technical trader is to find market deviations from a random walk. However, some strategies, for example a "take profit/stop loss" strategy can work, (or at a minimum one can change the risk/reward ...


2

It appears that we need only to observe the following: \begin{align*} \lim_{\lambda\rightarrow 0}\frac{1}{\lambda}\int_0^{\lambda t}\sigma^2_u du &= \lim_{\lambda\rightarrow 0}\int_0^{ t}\sigma^2_{\lambda u} du\\ &= \int_0^{ t}\sigma^2_{0} du \\ &=\sigma^2_{0} t. \end{align*}


1

1 is wrong. The implied vol is a convenient way to look at the option price, nothing more. 2 is an observed fact for equities in general but not the case for some other assets eg commodity futures. 3 is also an observed fact for equities generally (but not for single stocks with short time to expiry). If 1 and 2 were true, then 3 would naturally follow....


1

You are right that a Wiener process can not be differenciated in the conventional way since the derivative in respect to time does not exist. For this reason Ito lemma should be used to integrate and differenciate Brownian or Wiener processes as these are considered ito processes.



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