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I think the answer to your question is very dependent on the respective indicators. It can be argued for example that moving averages not only smooth out time series but because they are a shifted version of the original series signals on crossovers make use of the momentum factor. In general you might want to check out the book Evidence Based Technical ...

The only "indicators" that I believe add value in academic research are time series smoothing functions. ( I don't call them indicators because they are all lagging thus do not indicate anything into the future). There is clear empirical evidence and a number of academic papers have been published that show that none of the common indicators (common ...

Dynamic Time Warping, recursive, time-delayed feedforward neural networks, wavelets, empirical mode decomposition, ..., there's plenty of it. BUT If you want my advice, don't go this way, I wasted too much time doing things like that. Neither big nor small players (profitably and consistently) trade this way and for a good reason. Technical analysis is a ...

Elher's website has a technical papers section wherein you can find a paper called "MAMA." At the end of this paper there is Easylanguage code to calculate the phase. You are right that the lead sine is just phase plus 45 degrees. Just take the sine of these calculated phases for the indicator.

Well pattern recognition and image processing is so developed these days. This is cutting edge in CS now and if we could identify cancer or brain tumor on a hazy image or a suspect face on an industry cam then recognizing head and shoulders on a chart is really really easy. Support Vector Machines or entropy come to mind but there is a myriad of ...

Regarding trading, it depends upon one's style and temperament. Don't rely solely on Aronson's book and his views and a phrase quoted by Andrew Lo in his study. The formula posted by Tal Fishman of Head and Shoulders as quoted by Lo, Mamaysky and Wang (2000) is not exhaustive. There is a lot of scope for further improvement. However, there are many studies ...

Cliff Asness's PhD thesis was based on Momentum and Value. AQR has a lot of interesting research. http://www.aqrindex.com/AQR_Momentum_Indices/Momentum_Research/Content/default.fs http://aqr.com/Research/ByTopic.aspx Jegadeesh and Titman (Returns to Buying Winners...- first paper linked in the above answer ) seems to be the standard reference.

Let's approach the answer to your question from a pure trading and risk management perspective because looking at it from a mathematical standpoint nor quant standpoint does not yield you much here: 1) Bollinger bands are nothing else than standard deviation envelopes around the mean of past prices of the underlying. So, as far as simple probabilities go, ...