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In the long term you will underperform buy & hold because you need an accuracy of at least 65%. See these papers for more: Bauer, R.; Dahlquist, J.: „Market Timing and Roulette Wheels Revisited“, CFA Institute, 2012. http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/irpn.v2012.n1.10 Sharpe, W.: “Likely Gains from Market Timing”, Financial Analysts Journal, ...


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It's not unusual to find a financial time series with positive trend samples biased between 55-60%, depending on the period sampled. Stocks tend to have an upward drift over the long run. When you account for the drift, I would say, that number is really not much better than chance. A better way to verify your question would be to make certain to build ...


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It's no bad but you have to backtest the method out-of-sample. Say you have discovered an indicator that works 100% in history, you still cannot be sure if it works next time. Another advise is you might want to investigate the distribution of loss when your system fails to work. If your system delivers 1% every time you trade, and loses 10% each time it ...


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When an exchange (or ECN) receives an order, there is no identifier of the buyer or seller. Therefore the only place that this is available is at the broker themselves. No broker would be willing to provide this information even on an anonymized basis and it would be a violation of other laws and regulations (such as Regulation S-P). ...


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Directional forecast is insufficient. You could have a signal that has 100% accuracy and you would not necessarily be able to profit from it because of transaction cost, implementation etc.



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