# Tag Info

18

I like to present to you a slightly different approach: Historically, only one single yield curve was derived from different instruments, such as OIS, deposit rates, or swap rates. However, market practice nowadays is to derive multiple swap curves, optimally one for each rate tenor. This idea goes against the idea of one fully-consistent zero coupon curve, ...

15

To explain why a negative sloping yield curve is bad, you have to start with a theory of the yield curve. The dominant theories for the term structure of interest rates are the rational expectations, liquidity preference, and market segmentation. (The first two theories are quite compatible with each other and have more standing so let's assume that view.) ...

15

Garabedian, Typically, the "swap curve" refers to an x-y chart of par swap rates plotted against their time to maturity. This is typically called the "par swap curve." Your second question, "how it relates to the zero curve," is very complex in the post-crisis world. I think it's helpful to start the discussion with a government bond yield curve to ...

8

There are two parts to your question and I'd like to answer them separately. Curve Construction On a daily basis, you can observe prices on a large variety of instruments, whose prices are driven by news and trading flows. Based on market prices of these instruments, there are a number of ways to create discount curves/forward curves. At a very high level (...

7

To elaborate on Freddy's answer: These days you need to maintain a separate funding (usually OIS) curve to your Libor* type curves. Once you have this discounting curve, you can calculate from Libor instrument market data what the market estimations of that Libor are: 3m instruments like Interest Rate Futures, IRS with a 3m float leg, 3m FRAs can be used to ...

7

(In addition to the answers of Freddy and Phil H): With "modern" multi-curve setups: You have to distinguish between discount curves (which describe todays value of the a future fixed payoff (e.g. a zero coupon bond)) and forward curve, which describe the expectation (in a specific sense) of future interest rate fixings. Swaps pay LIBOR rates and are ...

7

There are many reasons why a yield curve can be inverted. A default-free yield curve reflects a combination of - market expectation of future short-term interest rates; bond risk premium: usually positive, longer duration bonds are more volatile and riskier, so investors demand a compensation in the form of higher yields; convexity. Let's consider a case ...

6

The original Nelson Siegel paper describes a parsimonious model of the term structure using only four or three (if $\lambda_t$ is fixed). Filipovic (1999) proves that this model can never be used in a arbitrage free context, paraphrasing the abstract: We introduce the class of consistent state space processes, which have the property to provide an ...

6

Your observations are pretty much correct. The groupings are because of the fine print "Note how I have expanded the drift and volatility terms at $t = T$; in the above these are evaluated at $r$ and $T$." on the same page (p.528). Basically, $w$ is a function of both $r$ and $t$. Since we want to use $w(r,T)$ instead of $w(r,t)$, we taylor expand $w(r,t)$...

6

There's no class at this time to add two curves as you want, but it won't be much difficult to write it. The closest you'll get in the library is the ZeroSpreadedTermStructure class, that shows the general idea: it inherits from YieldTermStructure (by way of ZeroYieldStructure) takes a YieldTermStructure and a spread (constant, in this case) and override ...

6

Quantlib supports multi-curve framework (to the best of my knowledge). By the way, there's a "newer" version of that paper (authored by Pallavicini & Brigo). http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.1397 This paper might also be useful for you, very practical and basically answers any question you could have. Also see this discussion about multi-curve discounting ...

5

You should take a look at the example from Hull's book. Assume that the 6-month, 12-month, 18-month zero rates are 4%, 4.5%, and 4.8%, respectively. Suppose we know that the 2-year swap rate is 5%, which implies that a 2-year bond with a semiannual coupon of 5% per annum sells for par: $$2.5 e^{-0.04 \bullet 0.5} + 2.5 e^{-0.045 \bullet 1.0} + 2.5 e^{-... 5 The answer to your first four questions is affirmative. Option-adjusting the spread makes an equivalence between everything theoretically possible, but the quality of results depends significantly on the quality of your interest rate model and its calibration. My personal opinion, though, is that the results need to be treated carefully because the OAS ... 5 The short answer is that Libor swap rates come from the market. They represent a series of cashflows in the future whose value is determined by the fixing, which the market participants have their own valuations of. Since the actual cash flows are now discounted using a separate funding curve, the swap prices embed both a prediction of future fixings and a ... 5 You should use the full yield curve, discounting cash flows at specific dates using the appropriate zero-coupon interest rate. As to which yield curve, that is often a matter of convention. Generally one uses the LIBOR/swaps curve for all but the most liquid products (in which case you use the treasury curve). The curve is constructed from LIBOR/Eurodollar ... 5 The Macaulay duration is a measure of how sensitive a bond's price is to changes in interest rates. Duration is related to, but differs from, the slope of the plot of bond price against yield-to-maturity. The slope of the price-yield curve is -\frac{D}{1+r}P, where D is Macaulay duration, P is bond price, and r is yield. Here's how the definition ... 5 Ok, I've done some digging in the code. It's an issue with the LogLinear interpolation; while trying to find the correct rate for the 1-week node, the bootstrapper wanders unchecked into a region of negative rates and the logarithms blow up. At this time, I'm afraid the workaround is just to use some other interpolation. Or recompile the library and the ... 5 The NS model should be fit directly to bond prices. If you have the prices of all the Treasuries, you should use those directly. See this paper for how the Fed does it http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200628/200628pap.pdf The "Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates" are already fitted par yields (they're fitted using a cubic spline model to on-the-run ... 5 Within the fixed income space, there's a lot of literature on PCA trading. The first 2-3 principal component factors (PCs) can typically explain 90-99% of the total variances in yield curve movement. It's also nice, because the first PC looks like a change in the overall level of the yield curve, the second PC looks like a slope change, while the third ... 4 The risk implied by Euribor or EONIA (or their swaps) is for lending to another prime rated bank. These rate indexes represent where contributor banks are offering funds to each other in the interbank market. Contributing banks are mostly rated P-1 (Moody’s) or A-1 (S&P). You wouldn’t use these rates for govt discount curves because the risk doesn’t ... 4 Let P(t,T) be the time-t price of the zero-coupon bond expiring at T. The no-arbitrage condition forces:$$e^{-\int_0^tr_sds}P(t,T)=\mathbb{E}[e^{-\int_0^Tr_sds}|\mathcal{F_t}], where $\mathcal{F_t}$ is the filtration of the Brownian motion up to time $t$. Note that the expression on the right is a martingale by the tower property of expectations, ...

4

Is the author taking logs (and dividing by (T-t) etc) of our previous Z expansion from the previous page? He does, as you will see if you try to do the computation. What did you prevent to find this out by yourself? (I am trying to be constructive.) Mathematically, it doesn't add up to what the author provides as the answer. What am I missing here? ...

4

@Arrigo's answers are quite good; I'll try to beef up his points a bit more. Yield curves should be constructed using instruments of similar credit risks. If you're building a US Treasury yield curve, then you should use Treasury bills, notes, and bonds (although lots of people actually exclude Treasury bills because of market segmentation concerns). On ...

4

US Treasuries start trading BEFORE they're actually issued, in the so-called "When-Issued" market. This market allows investors to purchase the new issues for "forward settlement." Because these bonds haven't been issued, they have no coupon rates and are traded on a yield basis. On a daily basis, market forces drive the yields, until the auction date. On ...

4

Inverted curves (typically) appear when the economy is overheating. There is full employment but investment demand is still there and it is creating inflationary pressures. The central bank increases the short rate (which is their classical policy instrument) to take money off the table and cool down investment demand. However, the market knows that this is ...

4

Libor includes risk. It is riskier to make a 6m loan than two 3m loan. So the 6m Libor curve is not the same as the 3m one. Ther difference is the basis spread. When using a short rate model, you are modelling one curve. As a first approximation, you can deduce the other curves by adding a deterministic basis spread.

4

This is what banks have been doing for hundreds of years. They borrow short term (mainly through deposits and interbank lending) and lend long term (e.g. mortgages). I would not call it arbitrage, as it is not riskless profit. Apart from credit risk and interest rate risk, there is also liquidity risk. In these type of strategies, the investor has to ...

3

Theoretically, a rising yield curve is compensation for the additional duration risk. An inverted yield-curve is saying that the market thinks that: Next-year's figures for: growth plus inflation is less than Ten years' time's figures for: growth plus inflation Which means that expectations are either of a recession (some negative economic growth; and ...

3

Standard 3m curve interpretation: H, M, U, Z = Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec IMM dates in the futures convention (see SRKX's answer), and 2Y would be just the calendar 2y point. Assuming that what you found was done in 11th July 2011: U1 21 Sep 11 - 21 Dec 11 (IMM = 3rd Wednesday to following IMM) Z1 21 Dec 11 - etc H2 21 Mar 12 M2 20 Jun 12 U2 19 Sep 12 Z2 ...

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