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Aug
9
answered How random are financial data series?
Aug
9
answered Indicators and research for stress-based investment strategies
Aug
9
comment How do I replicate John Hussman's recession forecasting methodology?
You can find all of this except LEI at the St. Louis Federal Reserve bank: research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 You can find the LEI at : conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
Aug
9
comment How do I replicate John Hussman's recession forecasting methodology?
I agree with your interpretations. Other factors to consider are leading economic indicators, credit spreads between high-grade and investment grade firms, industrial production, and commodity prices.
Aug
7
revised Will price levels fall even though money supply increases?
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Aug
7
revised Will price levels fall even though money supply increases?
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Aug
7
answered Will price levels fall even though money supply increases?
Aug
5
comment What is the difference between the methods for calculating VaR?
Expected Shortfall also has the benefit of being a "coherent" risk measure, unlike VaR. Most of the recent literature in portfolio construction and optimization tends to use Expected Shortfall (or equivalently Conditional Value at Risk)
Aug
4
comment Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution
It is purely empirical and cannot be modeled analytically.
Aug
3
revised Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution
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Aug
3
revised Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution
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Aug
3
asked Portfolio optimization with monte carlo sampling from predictive distribution
Aug
3
comment robust portfolio optimization re-balancing with transaction costs
Brian, 1) Can the PortfolioAnalytics function handle custom constraints (example: sector-neutral weights)? The constraint class looks pre-specified. 2) Also, I see that the optimize.portfolio function can accept a matrix of returns. I have a posterior distribution of expected market returns (i.e. K possible realizations of market returns for N assets resulting from MCMC). Can this function identify the optimal weight vector with respect to the sampling from the posterior? Of course, I would continue to use covariance of historical returns (de-noised) for calculation of ES. Thanks!
Aug
2
comment How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?
Those charts look great - thanks for posting! This seems like an interesting tool for identifying regime change points.
Aug
2
answered Efficiency vs. Robustness - To use a constant or not in single factor time-series regression?
Aug
2
comment How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?
Cool! I updated the answer. I'm not sure if you are able to share/upload that output but it would be very intellectually interesting to look at!
Aug
2
revised How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?
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Aug
2
comment How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?
This may be a bit abstract but here goes. Create a table: rows represent dates, and columns represent eigenvectors. The entries of the table represent changes in the angle of the eigenvector from the previous row. This will show how stable your covariance structure is. You can also create a second table this time with eigenvalues as the columns sorted from high to low (and the corresponding values below for each date).
Aug
1
comment What methods do you use to improve expected return estimates when constructing a portfolio in a mean-variance framework?
Michaud's re-sampling approach has perverse behavior (namely assigns higher weights to assets that high volatility in some circumstances). See Bernd Scherer's "Robust Portfolio Optimization", or Martin/Scherer's text for the details. There is also no theoretical basis for re-sampling. For this reason I would avoid re-sampling.
Aug
1
answered How do I graphically represent the evolution of a covariance matrix over time?